Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call: " Selling life as expensive as possible " Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is...
A very important weekend across the globe. Italy, Iran and SK weighing heavy on virus sentiment as capital rushes out the doors. Any hopes of a Q2 rebound are starting to fade and that USD haven demand we’ve seen of late looks set to continue. All eyes this week remain on virus watch, a muted/slightly dovish Lagarde expected on the wires and here happy to sell...
Part I - Chapter 1 The Gold Swing 1. General remarks => The base of the swing => The idea of two clashing forces After the impressive leg: ...we have a completed Gold swing trade. The legs A, B and C are individual moves in the swing; a zigzag should be considered a retrace and in this case while inside a second wave that serves a function for the...
Here we are tracking the massive breakup in Vol; this is looking dangerous and is right on time with Coronavirus kicking in. This was forecast miles in advance (see charts below) and has followed the mapped flows flawlessly since the previous swing we began tracking earlier last year: The sweep of the lows was a textbook example of clearing the board to open...
A masterclass performance from buyers, well done all those holding longs from 1250 and 1350... I know many here who have been riding the pig, that have kept working longs because the market said it worked and it paid! This has been one of the easiest rides in Gold in all my years of trading, the easy part of the rally is now finished. We are coming to the end of...
You have to bet on this bunny to win.. right now it is better to be buying BTC dips because its miles ahead. You all know by now how things are turning down on the fundamental side, BTC will perform in the same way Gold has of late. Things are going to get worse on the macro side, and you are just saying at this point in time BTC is one of the best places to...
Here tracking 1.295x as the level to recycle and load more shorts. Well done those following from the original short-term swing which was triggered on the cabinet reshuffle (see diagram below). As widely expected GBP suffering as markets began to look towards the EU negotiations kickstarting in March. Both sides are very wide apart and no-deal Brexit looks set for...
It is well known that the latest retrace was able to conduct a violent sweep in both directions which makes this middlegame area very credible. It is going to act as a strong floor in the later stages of the cycle (outside of the discussions for today). One of the main highlights is coming from BTC which has had the ability to gather first plenty of speed in the...
As widely expected USDRUB selling off from the 64.2x highs and a good time to collect half our chips from the table. Well done sellers, a textbook zigzag and flawless trade since the channel breakup so far. The spike was a textbook flushout with US sanctions acting as the catalyst. For those tracking the previous diagrams the flows are wide open in the...
Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park...
Here we are digging into the technicals for EURJPY as my models begin to start showing overbought levels; this is going to trigger a corrective pullback towards the key 118.xx handle which will act as support for the large swing up with European capital inflows. On the Technicals a weekly close above the 121.382 highs will confirm a breakout; the natural flows...
In the realm of swing trading, the struggle for liberation is forever prevalent. It would be wrong to ignore the opening move here at 1205; This kickstarted the entire move towards $1305, once outside of the wedge buyers took an "anything goes" approach to the price as risk began to evolve over time. While the triangle from an elliot wave perspective was...
The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right... We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice....
A weak session for EURGBP, soft hands continued to bring better sellers in from leveraged accounts and yet the important 0.8300x support still held. I am once again in BTFD mode as pound remains more vulnerable in the entire process as a result of financial services replacement. Risk markets will put more pressure on GBP in general over the coming sessions. Here...
With Javid out Johnson had the perfect cherry pick with Rishi Sunak and now the fiscal taps can be turned on full. This medium-term swing is starting to look very interesting which is unlocking a leg towards 1.20xx and 1.15xx below: Rishi is a typical yes man, he will do whatever Johnson wants. Those behind the curtain know it was another flawless beheading...
The poor sellers! On a move they had to defend, they failed miserably and now buyers are off on their journey! Any sellers now will be perish, we can continue the destination towards our 1600-1610 first target area. For those tracking the initial leg from the PBOC defence, the very lows at 1550 where sellers bit into granite: You notice how fluid the move is,...
As widely expected we got a test of the highs at 64.2x once the channel was broken (see diagram). The ladder is light and I like to play this tight range and look for a test of the lows. "Eyes here, looking to sell 64.2x on the day..." - This is currently in play, although risk is showing now signs of abating the low sizings are keeping a test of the lows on...
I saw inflows from large hands in LTC yesterday. I still have a bias to trade it from the long LTCUSD side and expected outperformance of LTC against peers like XRP and ETH as the BTC tide continues to rise. In the medium term a test of $137.x looks a done deal, next area to cover is $93.x which should also come into focus this Month. A flawless breakout so far,...
