As expected... an interesting day for BTC and other major Cryptos with risk under pressure once more from the latest Apple announcements. There is little to update on the fundamental side, with BTCUSD finding support at $9,500 as expected. Risk is likely to remain under pressure today so buying dips is and remains the strategy. A break of $10,000 will likely see...
On the Equities front sentiment is starting to shift once again towards the negative side with offloading being done at the highs. After clearing Powell focus is shifting back towards the pressures on earnings from Coronavirus and spillovers, not expecting much more room to the topside in the immediate term. Investors do not like the headlines from China with...
XRP buyers... Creatures of habit, that love warmth of familiarity. By keeping the smell of the past alive they commit to more exposure only to later have the rug pulled again. This does not change the state of play for BTC, those following the long term diagram in BTC have started to reach the first profit taking area and with that XRP like a farmer who has lost...
A timely update to the daily chart with risk entering back into the picture it is a healthy profit taking leg in play for buyers. Those who have been loading at the lows can finally begin to cover and open up some sell-side opportunities. Expecting a day of consolidation and then some more cooling off from the impressive rally. The squeeze is still very...
Trotting higher as ever and currently challenging the key $4.50 flip. I noticed better local RM EOS buying too, and I think that the coin could remain bullish until $7.5 before we see any serious official profit taking. I'd use any dips to enter shorts. The same flows that have been in play since the pullback: It remains the darling of Altcoins. High funding...
Risk markets remain on the back-foot with no one wanting to get caught badly on the wrong side via COVID-19 haven flows. You can see this in USDJPY, after the awful GDP prints (still yet to see virus impact) the reaction was so muted. Markets remain at the mercy to gyrations in patient and death counts, I am sticking with the shorts from 109.7x/8x although by no...
With US away from their desks today we will get a dull session and the relentless loonie bid will grind us back towards the 1.3275x area. It is a good value level to re-engage with shorts and here looking to add ahead shorts there ahead of local CPI on Wednesday. The MT and LT outlooks for Canada are very good in my books; A bullish USD view on risk via...
Here tracking for a very technical pullback after a test of last week's open. Positioning is incredible stretched meaning the tree can be shaken at any minute, I want to get long USDZAR but reluctant to chase anything at these levels. Tracking a pullback into the 14.7x jurisdictions before doing anymore business here. A similar move for those tracking USDTRY: ...
On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into...
Important updates on the UK side for those in UK related assets. A game changer cabinet reshuffle to put a 🍒 picked “Yes man” in the Treasury. Downing Street making renovations and now in full control of not only No.10 but also No.11 (and scarily soon to be the BOE next month). Sunak will turn the fiscal taps on full blast, the fuel behind fiscal stimulus will...
I will keep this one quick as it is Friday afternoon... its clear that high beta has been in demand from some faster hands of late. Nothing of meaningful weight in the ladder, I think we will test the highs before pulling back. Another technical break to the topside in play with some strong US data. This looks set to test the highs in USDRUB for now. Tactical long...
This chart comes after a request from @radyan899464 and a very good time to update the chart as we reach strong support from the initial wave of profit taking after our large swing. Those tracking the previous swing can see in the diagram here: 1595 triggered a lot of profit taking and covering, we are now entering into accumulation and once again get ready...
With treasuries below inflation for only the second time ever in history (btw first time happened at the end of 2016 before monetary tightening). Global CB's are co-ordinating easing this late in the cycle makes it a matter of 'when rather than 'if' BTC will explode. This is the perfect environment to be adding on the dip, and a must have for all portfolios! My...
Models make it hard to add any longs to USDCHF here at the highs, risk opening the floodgates for a -1.5% short, mainly stemming from a notable pick up in demand for CHF after the latest shift in risk sentiment. Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for...
On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733. The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the...
On the EOS side, after testing back above 5.00 over the weekend local crypto exchanges were aggressive sellers of EOSUSD throughout the session, using rallies as an opportunity to cover. As short-term flows calmed, international inflows also resumed. On-shore Chinese demand continued to be buyers of EOS around 4.75 yesterday, but the sizes were a lot smaller than...
EOS has quite the habit of shaking out soft hands by expanding volatility in large manoeuvres with smart longs covering (see diagram below) and then actively buying at cheaper levels. Buyers had some nice gains and this healthy profit taking was logical and I can see why a retest of $4.50 was justified: Although time-consuming, the operation is based on...
A quick short-term update here with another storm of risk coming our way for the weekend. This time it will damage the late crypto buyers with a correction. We have already had intense orders and impressive sizings seen in Tokyo and before the NY open. A real risk of a healthy pullback as that ridge of high pressure from Coronavirus spillover effects enter into...
