It is obvious that we are trading extended levels in US Equities and to a lesser extent Europe too. The blockader above from Tokyo yesterday must come as a surprise as Europe were inclined to buy the dip. What is surprising is that the resistance assigned to the current range at 3380 is serving its function of the highest order. So it ought to seem quite normal to...
All 👀 on EUR with heavy sells mounting from some of the biggest sharks in the business. It’s difficult to find anything positive on the macro side in Europe at the moment, and notably I am getting an increasing amount of questions from clients with the same exhaustion. With German uncertainty, ECB emergency cuts making the rounds and when you look at positioning...
Here a good time to update the EURCHF as we break through the 1.062x lows as sellers are aiming for complete capitulation of their opponent (as far as the flash crash is concerned there is very little in terms of support here if we get a daily breach). The plan was (1) Forcing further selling EURCHF: (2) The extension leg was released and sellers advanced in...
Here adding to longs as the swing towards 1600 looks only a few sessions away, well done those riding this leg from the previous 1550 positions. Risk is not showing signs of abating via coronavirus, inflation is back with a vengeance and it's time to continue working the bid in Gold. Fir the portfolio: BUY GOLD 1575 | TP 1600 | STP 1565 On the Technical...
![EURUSD: ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update [Dissecting Waves]](https://s3.tradingview.com/j/j2zVU9vl_mid.png "ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update [Dissecting Waves]")
The starting position has been difficult to reach for the 3rd impulsive wave after coronavirus risk-off flows hijacked the move. But what now? Either a breakdown to close the gap from French elections in 2017 or an imminent reversal to kickstart the leg; of course if only the positional obligation was not so appealing at these levels for longs because we are...
A round of GBP chart updates after the latest cabinet reshuffle. A nice sweep of the highs and we are set to go with the fiscal taps set to rain down and attempt to offset the impact via brexit. On the other side we have risk taking the spotlight again with coronavirus flows not abating. JPY is set to outperform over the coming sessions with a soft selloff...
We are going to see some short-term relief here before continuation towards the lows at 1.06559. Any pullbacks over the coming weeks should be viewed as corrective and offer an opportunity to add dovish exposure in the summer doldrums. The risk to our thesis is a break above 1.12. This will invalidate the pattern and remove the possibility of this being viewed...
A good time to update the daily chart in EURCHF with Euro starting to trade firmer on the crosses and the CHF run beginning to show signs of unwinding. The 1.074x is starting to look very weak and will give way to sweep all the way down towards 1.062x, here looking to increase exposure; should we visit 1.080x I will not hesitate to increase sizings. For those...
A timely update to the FX strategy for GBP with particular focus on Cable. On the UK side, we have loud messages from Europe around the difficulty for both sides to reach an agreement by year-end. Although typical in a game of high-stakes chess, this is a heavy weight on Sterling. On the US side, a solid round of data prints last week from wages to...
Turkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus...
A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram: No surprises...
I will keep this one very quick as not much interest in KZT. On the technical side we have a very clean and simple legs to track here, nothing to change my view of the gravitational pull back towards normality circa 310 in the coming weeks. Heavy USD sells continue from locals nad in my books a matter of time before we are -18% from the original entries: ...
An interesting addition to the Oil dynamics with OPEC cuts coming in March clashing with risk-off flows via coronavirus spillovers and everything else in-between. There is a lot going on; highly recommend tracking the retrace leg in Oil for this one it is really going to act as the main driver for us to lean on over the coming sessions. We can track accurately the...
LTC will continue to reduce liquidity. Not sure how effective that is going to be at containing this environment though. A move towards 93 is a matter of when rather than if. Happy to sit in LTCUSD longs for now, the move is unstoppable at the moment. If BTC and cryptos can have a strong couple of days, spot could easily touch 90 this week. Stay long Litecoin. ...
On the Crypto side, the market couldn’t make up its mind whether to break $10,000 or take some profits. After a little bit of both types or price action so far this week. Cryptos were generally positive and the dollar offer seems to have returned. Mildly positive headlines on the nCoV front regarding antidotes, combined with reports of some returning to work is...
The underlying USD devaluation seems little changed on the whole despite the Coronavirus hijack. Volatility is subdued as seen in the diagram below, which is making it very simple for large sizings to enter as was the case in 2007. The USD weakness (which is a lot clearer on the Monthly chart) is a significant component in the reflation trade, growth...
A superb time to update the AUDNZD chart after a fresh technical breakup yesterday. The Q4 prints from antipodeans is very positive and actually triggering a slightly hawkish tilt by the RBA. Despite the brutal domestic story in Australia with bushfires and coronavirus spillovers, Scott Morrison has done the heavy lifting via housing policies. There is a lot of...
On the NZ side a superb round of employment data for Q419 which is overshooting market expectations clashing with global USD strengthening via commodity currency softening. For the 2020 diagram the outlook is crystal clear although the immediate picture is slightly more blurred with Chinese growth concerns spilling over to weigh on NZD. The RBNZ are on hold...
