A very good time to update the short-term flow setup for CADNOK after such a brilliant squeeze. For those tracking the 2020 Macro flows: This week we have a simple technical move in play. A textbook case of "Apple in the worm" as it seems to me a poor choice of the moment for buyers to continue the advance. Extending the characteristics position (= swing...
A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank: In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and...
As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc... Lets get started with a round of important chart updates coming today (which btw is extraordinarily late after a week ban). I would like you to note the position arising here looks as though its "business as usual" for the dip buyer crowd, whereas sellers are seeking salvation in a...
XRPUSD pulled back from the highs after a round of profit taking began across most cryptos with bids covering. The dips here in XRPUSD are likely to be shallow amid worries about missing the reflationary bounce, USD devaluation and search for yield. Expecting investors to continue building bullish XRP positions and putting hedges as we approach the highs in the...
There were the usual people who did not wish to engage in the sell-side before understanding what was being said from the WHO. Experts calling this a national emergency and now stronger players entering into the market with direct shocks on the demand side. Moves likes this, which weaken important structures should if possible be played and as a matter of fact,...
On the risk front, the WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and was adding on Friday as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we had month end flows in play which made things tricky as participants were timid. To the...
Being overly defensive is not an act of religious charity, rather a strategic advantage to flow from the demand zone that we established with the Bakkt Floor. There is only one exceptional case in which a weak swing has any justifiable claim to be over-protected, that is when it is being nursed through the function of a growing giant. For example: The base...
USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above...
Here we are tracking the final chapter in Wave IV, having cratered through the 61.8% retracement of the 2016/19 uptrend the next level to track is 1.24%. I expect losses will be capped below here to keep broader risks from cascading out of control. Whilst to the topside, resistance can be found at 1.96%, a previous corrective high. Markets have cornered the Fed,...
Here we go...Markets are not expecting a lot from the ECB fundamental front , rates will remain on hold with more focus on the hard macro data tomorrow. The only thing to 🔎today is for clues around duration of policy review. On the technical side , jurisdictions are defined clearly on both sides as EUR is comfortably holding the 1.108/9x support. The initial...
LTC clearly outperforming and taking the spotlight with the cross briefly trading above $70. A serious early contender for "Trade of the Year" after we rallied +70% from the lows. In any case, I am happy with the first targets at 64.xx, but ahead of the weekend, I would be surprised to see much further downside. On the day, support will be found at 62.5x...
EOS also approaching first targets in the swing at $4.5 area as highlight previously. Some minor profit taking is expected on the cross but buying dips remains the preferred trade. That said, I don’t think there will be a prolonged, hard sell off. It’s not very inspiring but as long as EOS remains a funding currency patience and opportunism is the order of the...
Highlights overnight going to AUD with overshoots in the U-rate as expected. This number is going to trigger the RBA surprise hold that we have been tracking in this diagram: Large hands spotted on the AUD bid last ear and will continue to do so as a lot more unwinding of positions needs to take place from those betting on FURTHER rate cuts. Tracking 0.692x...
A funny weekend for Cryptos. Profit taking across most major coins which is only natural after such an impressive advance. BTCUSD spiked to above 9,000, just shy of the 9,200 pivot. EOS has been reacting to the increased purchases of LiquidX. Price settling back towards the highs here and a healthy target at $4.50 seems appropriate to me, especially given how we...
The main and secondary functions of the next swing. How it behaves, when it strikes and becomes impulsive, and how it does when put under pressure from the defender. The function of the zig-zag and impulsive wave is to immobilise our opponent. The retrace is a tree-shaker, it itself tends to be very flexible. And yet it is common for retail to display signs of...
EUR testing the 1.108/9x zone this morning as mentioned already earlier this month. At this point all soft hands who tried out guessing the reflationary flows and USD devaluation in December are washed out. Activity for the European open picked up, I remain bullish and have actively been adding longs in EURUSD. Stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x while...
AUD and NZD flawlessly trading in sync with our range trade flow picture (see diagram): Eyes this week are on AUD employment prints, another drop in the unemployment rate will be enough to take RBA cuts off the table. I’m against expectations and looking them to follow RBNZ in Dec with the surprise hold. I still think we will find offers at the 0.692x in...
The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access. Compare the following two diagrams: Sellers...
