Here in this position, it is clear that intensive work has gone into supporting the entire global recovery. Moreover, we could already count the resilience in credit as ideal results from the covid siege. But now I want to focus on the US and small caps in particular are getting to work and the advance is leading to a more palpable exhaustion leg and opening...
The positional struggle, or put simple the slow siege from sellers back to the base is finally exhausting. Powell has attacked with a move several times the strength of the surrounding defence. USD will now maintain the pressure and birth of fresh strength will unlock the next leg higher in USDMXN. Since 2018 we have been tracking the explosion higher. The...
Buyers position marks (5) as a soft and temporary floor. Other events can cause the base to appear a lot stronger than it does, so the transfer of the attack from one direction to the other can be subtle, although not a matter of pure chance. It has been a relatively straight forward flow, but one that has not seen much light thrown on the subject thanks to...
A timely update to the US10Y Yields chart as we approach key areas. The 1.35% pivot level in the very short term is our line in the sand and will define which battlefield we will play Q3 on. ↳ The waterfall lows from 2020 started the next five wave impulsive sequence to the topside, it will take years for the moves to unfold but critical to understand our long...
Copper: Market Commentary 23.08.2021 A couple of points to note here; we ticked the 161.8% extension which was our third wave target in our previous copper chart at the beginning of 2021. It always comes down to the same situation; an impulsive complex which can be called sound, but which has one sickly component. As we head into Jackson, according to the...
The evolutionary break of 1.260x unlocked the floodgates and buyers successfully captured the higher high. But the revolutionary attack would not be complete without capitulation and be as follows: 1. Taking 1.295x (there is no question of having broken above July 19th highs, since sellers have given up a lot of ground for it, will unlock a test of 1.331x as a...
For the flows here, buyers are clearly in control and have been over multiple decades - although since 2016 we have been inside a compression range which looks set to blow later in 2022. Strong support comes into play at 23,500 which should be enough to cap the outflows before continuation in a bull market towards a measure 40,000 breakout target. ↳ To the...
The great mobility of capital in India has been known for some time. In the endgame however, valuations becoming overstretched, although a mere extra, is one of the principal actors. So we must consider unicorns to be developed as as necessary step in this battlefront and it is no surprises from a timing perspective. So we have the following charts: Nifty...
It seems a timely choice to update the dollar chart. Extending the characteristic positioning in the previous euro chart, seems to me to be more in accordance with the needs of 93.75 - 94.00 holding and acting as a reliable guardian for the remainder of August and September, but the threat to an attack higher is real. In the DXY chart, buyers will need to...
A clean and simple setup forming inside the 110 handle here. Eyeballing a leg lower towards 109.2x with Yields leading. This is the 4th attempt from bulls to reclaim the 110 handle and take out 111 stops since July. The LT outlook is Strong Buy as depicted in the chart below, but the ST trend is telling us a very different picture, that we are not quite ready...
Looking for continuation to the downside here in USDCAD with an initial target of 1.230x, extended targets at 1.200x and stop loss at 1.260x. Also actively looking at deploying additional positions EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDSEK with the latent USD softness. This has potential for follow through in August. ↳ Technically we are approaching key resistance levels, with...
Here we are tracking the ending of a 'C' leg in the 4th wave retrace (invalidation for sellers comes into play with 50,130 because it will mean the move is impulsive rather than corrective). Expecting sellers to step in here with risk storming the base for August, the next leg down would mean the lows are no longer protected via the meme prince. Elon now uncovered...
Further downside possible, but looks short-lived while above 200MA and importantly 0.703x. A lot of noise from the region, with PBOC lifting the bid temporarily and clearing the way for the test of 0.703x. This is an important area structurally as those with a background in waves are tracking for the beginning of an impulsive wave 3 inside a major. Here...
Another leg lower for gold with inflation as the kicker. ↳ In 2018, the original bullish gold chart began the entire move. The triangle breakout and has been very impulsive. ↳ On the weekly, support comes in at $1676 and $1518 below as the main MT swing target for the ABC sequence inside a multi-year five wave pattern. ↳ For those on the bid, a daily close...
A quick round of illustrations to review the swings in euro... The idea of the swing; we are mapping bids and offers, no more no less. Two battlefields, the wings are what we attack on and the centre is where we begin to clear (into thrusts and etc). Lets start with the Yearly chart for our macro direction: Very clear the base has been attacked previously...
Sellers, who are now caught out of position appear to be under threat and are trying to cover quickly. Since the 1.177x/1.178x lows held, this is now the only level we need to apply rules too. So, an initial target (1.197x) is in the crosshairs and squared up for the flows behind. Next comes 1.209x and 1.250x as the major targets that we need to clear this...
The main driver here appears to be the unwind in cyclicals and commodities as we see the brakes pulled in the inflation trade. In this sense, Oil itself tends to be rather immobile. And yet (for OPEC+ still has some vitality although diminishing) it is not rare to find the trigger for this will come in the display of an increase of considerable activity on the...
A couple of things to note here as the chart clearly shows the attempt of a break on the log-chart. We now know Sellers are attempting the strategical and important pin on their opponent. It is clear the inflation trade is deteriorating, and in the most profound sense looks rather like a deeper mission that is underway. On the technical side, the next levels in...
