Currencies behave in set patterns, they prefer the comforts of routine. With DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the bid in EURUSD. Here the choice is between 1.128x and 1.21xx. The first results will...
By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table). On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more;...
I demonstrated the flows earlier in the move before it played out, there was a winning move in December and the main line comes after: It comes down to the pursuit of seller stops; they have been forced to flee, but the flight itself has been riddled with challenges as more and varied geopolitical risk is conjured up. As I pointed out in the first week of...
It is important now for us to take a retrospective view here on the lows that we have been discussing. After the early stages in the swing, as you shall soon see, my dear reader, it is frequently very difficult to chase breakouts as they force into action. In our sense, you can see our opponents (bears in this case) are fleeing, so we should inflict double the...
Insufficient sizings followed through into USD after we cleared the kneejerk reaction in risk via US-Iran. The centre of the map at 1.128x is a strategically dubious setup and offers a great opportunity for EUR bulls to position early as we go into NFP ... how to attack from the wings . By now you all know the necessary swing position we are trading; What,...
TSLA overheating and valuations are currently stretched for even the most optimistic assumptions. Based on current valuations at $490, Tesla would need to be delivering 1,300,000 cars within the next 5 years. In my models, stock is fairly valued at +/- 280 but with an initial target of 360. On technical side at the top here you will notice exhaustion as...
Interesting price action in USDCAD after another round of soft data from Canada. Poloz has a lot of work to do tonight if BoC are to move as rate markets are materially underpriced, especially on the front end. Expecting a dovish ‘fireside’ with early signs of encouraging demand above 1.30 this morning. Starting to cover shorts after the break through 1.304x has...
Here markets are starting to see shorts pick up momentum, this has been a very very easy ride so far since our initial entry (see diagram): Oil has drastically sold off, and risk sentiment in the M.E is fading. While we failed to clear 70 we managed to unwind some at 65 on the Iran spike. No reason to change course here yet, market sits itching to breakdown....
This train is picking up speed and as most of those who follow the Brazilian chart updates will know there is now momentum via Bolsonaro's pension reform. This is giving consumers the ability to drive growth into 2020 and beyond via things like credit and the appropriate monetary policy. Inflation is still coming down which means CB can keep lower rates, this...
AUD data continues to improve and with retail sales overshooting AUDUSD is approaching the key 0.690x. It is hard to argue for a cut this Feb with domestic data improving, though it will take a break above 0.692x for me to get excited. I am bullish on AUDUSD medium term but expect some of those who initiated longs yesterday and positioned for weaker US payrolls...
AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent. On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to...
Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: NZD is well...
A good time to update the Cable chart as we approach the first macro driven event risk of the year with NFP. As mentioned a few times the range we are trading is crystal clear with 1.33xx highs and 1.31xx lows. While the market is holding the key support at the lows, I maintain a view that a correction back towards the highs is both corrective and necessary to...
A timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense. We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply...
Here we can focus on the realms of reflationary risks that are around the corner, the struggle to shake out bulls is identical to the struggle we saw in 2016 which is reassuring, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing issue. For those tracking the previous diagrams in Gold it is obvious in USD terms both on the Weekly and Daily. Weekly: ...
A very good time to update the Gold chart after a huge gap up for the open forr the first swing target. Sadly no surprises via risk ticking higher and providing the catalyst in completing these flows: In my books, markets are happy to continue trading the same USD devaluation flows which will keep Gold supported via reflationary hedges even if (highly...
Finally guess who is back??? You know what that means...Macro coverage in the live channel and charts on Tradingview all day everyday will resume as usual with today's session! Lets jump straight in...LTC is in the habit of pinning bears by choosing the momentum manoeuvre via a breakout . Bulls have done very well in this way so far, the logic which seems to...
BTC volumes are impressive and longs starting to follow through notably more aggressive ahead of CME. Even if the Global reflation theme materialises next year, as many are outguessing, while this artificial USD devaluation would help support growth in the short-term, the erosion of confidence in the establishment and monetary system will have significant...
