Large hands coming underneath and pushing price straight back out of the lows as widely expected because of how cheap BTC is. This is a gift in this business, you can see BTC finding strong support at the lows in 7000 handle. Those following will know I have been (and continue) to aggressively buy the 7000/7100 lows, as soon as we crack 7500 expect accelerated...
EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless. Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly...
On the risk front, JPY demand running out of steam from the initial knee-jerk via Iran tensions and asking for a squeeze. I am tracking 108.6x on the day to add to my shorts. Targets below are located at 107.3x support while stops can be kept comfortably above 108.9x resistance. JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and...
A noteworthy breakout in Aus 10yr with the technical damage already done as bulls remain supportive at the lows. The 38.2% from the impulsive leg, although still yet to be tested will cap any further downside in the coming weeks. Here we are dealing with the capture of the pinned retrace. We have heaped up the size of our attack, but have to face up to the...
We are talking here about a swing high which has to be broken. What can be doubtful here, you may ask... Of course we must direct the attacks towards the highs, but how does one do that if for some reason the highs cannot be shaken? Would it not be opportunistic to sweep the highs and entice profit taking before recycling longs. This is effectively what happened...
A highly interesting and hopeful end to the year for most Cryptos with BTC, EOS, ETH and LTC in particular all holding support as the main highlights. It's a quieter start to the week though, with no notable data or Crypto driver today, but we do have the ripple effect from the USD devaluation theme and the increasing reflationary risks already showing signs of...
On the USD side, we have dollar devaluation in play via Fed flooding the supply side and marking the monthly highs in Dollar: On the JPY side, I am looking for an eventful year on the risk front. Japan will benefit in search of safety with late cycle fears only temporarily abating: On the technical side, for those in a background with waves and...
As you can see the strong relationship Copper has with Chinese equities, you will notice what has been the case for these final stages of the economic cycle, metals have been moving miles ahead of equities. We got the floor set in Copper as widely expected all year: Any dips now look competitive: Copper has been allowed to outperform Gold: Bulls...
Here we go with an update to AUD as we enter in 1H20. Consumers remain the key to the flows here, in my books markets overpriced odds of another cut from RBA in Feb 2020 ahead of income tax cuts in the middle of the year to stimulate the recovery. After RBNZ surprise hold in Q419, NZD was able to sustain a strong bid. After AUD unemployment came in better than...
A timely update to the Dollar chart in time for the NY session, with most of G10 FX trading at the bottom of the short term range markets are preparing for the final flush in USD before killing the year off on the FX board. Lets start by reviewing our long-term map: Here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15...
I have been talking about the curve steepening for some time after we cemented the lows. From a technical perspective, the breakout is implying a test of 60 over the coming weeks and months. The US 2s 5s Bond Curve also looks to be triggering a major break up: This will reflect a medium term breakout with large forces clashing against each other and...
A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout. (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. (2) A Fed that lags...
On the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all...
With a breakout in play on the daily, the formation can advance towards 1.128x and 1.146x extension. The diagram below highlights the attempt shows little defence to transfer the attack on weekly: Given what we have recognised on the technicals around the principled handicap bears have it makes it possible to construct the Macro chart: When our opponent...
After failing to clear 1.12xx before Christmas it is a good time to update the infamous macro chart. The floor is showing signs of permanently raising higher and with markets itching to play the reflation theme in H120, USD devaluation entering into play via Fed flooding USD supply side and we are going see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum on the...
A quick update to the Vix chart as we enter into the final important NY session of the year with quadruple witching. For those tracking the previous flows we remain in the same levels with the same targets and the same flows to track: After we cleared TP1 we ran out of steam and decided to trade the retrace back towards Capitulation territory. This was enough...
In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting: ...
Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: The correct march forward for bulls here over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance...
