Here we go for a round of EM FX market updates and with Oil on the move first up USDRUB. After the doldrums of Thanksgiving liquidity is starting to enter back into play, although with market out of position there is no need to overload exposure. The USD tide is turning and clients here are pressing the buy side on RUB crosses to play the dollar sell-off. More...
A timely update to the Dollar chart after clearing Fed minutes. Nothing to update after the third cut, Fed front loading the DXY decline over the coming months and quarters. Firstly lets start with our Long-term Dollar chart: Mainstream media selling the orderly brexit resolution and reflationary growth rebound to strategically converge the gap with the US....
A very good time to update the Euro chart after the infamous "Worm in the apple". For those who have not played before I highly recommend seeing the textbook examples from the playbook here: EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance)....
A good time to update the infamous "Capitulation Waters" chart idea, let's start with a recap: This chart came after an update from the previous +40% swing which we traded live in Vix earlier in the September... By now we should all be feeling connected to the flows and know exactly where we are headed from here. As we dip our toes into the Capitulation...
Here we are trading USDJPY at the highs in the range with macro risk-off themes still remaining in play and unchanged despite how the local news is selling the extended bull market. On the monetary side, BOJ clearly have their hands tied with the ECB/FED coordination. To put simply, any BoJ easing will follow ECB/FED which will be positive JPY via risk factors....
As long as prices remain above the key lows we can play the trading range; a break of the 54.04 is showing bullish signs in the short-term and opening up the highs in the range for a test. To the downside we can keep things very simple and play the breakdown, if bears take 50.55 it will expose 45.49 and 42.40 immediately after. For the long term chart we have...
A good time to update the roadmap for NZDUSD as we enter into the final chapter of 2019. The market has been heavily short NZDUSD all year, pricing in further cuts from RBNZ, the anticipation of a dovish CB was short-circuited and we are starting to see a reduction in their short positions. This was evident in my previous post: From a strictly macro...
A well needed update to the EURCHF chart after previously tracking and failing to clear the ABC extension targets at 1.065x. For those following the previous charts before we broke down: The yearly flows and expectations for 2020 will large be divided in a tale of two halves and as a result forecasts in the cross reflect that: For the initial phase, we are...
We are trading the highs of a multi decade monthly channel, I am expecting a significant reaction with flows entering into Fed positioning mode for a 25bp cut later this month. Rather than SEK strength a reaction move to the downside here will come from dollar devaluation from Fed intervention. For those still holding EURSEK longs the divergence will be telling...
I continue to sit on the bid in $ALTA and smelling jackpot any 'day' in the Juruena gold belt. The focus with this is Brazil and those following in the Telegram will know I am very bullish on Brazil economy and BRL: A lot of progress on all fronts, however, the thesis is threefold: (1) ...Firstly updates coming from contracts which have been signed with a...
An update to the medium-term Gold chart after clearing Fed. The strong push up factors remain prevalent for Gold; global recessionary risks are back in play, US-China protectionism returning and geopolitical gulfs widening all whilst equity and credit markets reach extended valuations and to put the cherry on top as if this wasn't enough, CB throwing the kitchen...
BTC - After a big wave of international BTC buying yesterday, the London open has been rather calm - foreign accounts continued their USD selling but in much smaller sizes. On the news front, in the evening there was a headline saying “Bakkt Bitcoin Futures reached a record high” - important for those positioning for Bakkt Bitcoin Options contracts on Dec 9th....
An live example of position execution in EURUSD...Vol has been trading at all time lows with EUR in a 10 tick weekly range. I am looking to fade the extremes. For the execution here we have infamous Worm In The Apple alerts triggering... I am going to give some room for bears to run the stops to the downside again. In usual circumstances it will be a good...
Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there...
USDCHF still caught in the tight range, patience and flexibility important here, range bound 1.002x - 0.984x with both parameters significant now, it looks like being a roller-coaster into year-end. EURCHF very strong support 1.093x - more inclined to buy dips and play from the long side. I still favour upside EURCHF but as people still cutting longs we are...
A good time to update the CNY chart with US away from their desks for thanksgiving. Both sides rolling back tariffs means that CNY has unlocked the gates for a retrace towards the key 76.4%. On the monetary side, updates from PBOC who continue sitting on the bid and are unlikely to change stance and keep CNY strong against the crosses, and as long as this...
This time I have an update to the macro chart to show the impact of increased borrowing on the Euro as European banks continue to led abroad. The flows are very complex in nature but very easy to track, we have two major forces in play which will serve the main course for the theme in 2020. I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new...
This chart is for those mapping USDCAD over the coming Quarters; a clean and simple strategy targeting the lows of 1.27xx by mid 2020 before finding somewhat of a bounce back towards the 1.30xx handle by year-end. Main theme behind the flows is coming from dollar devaluation, I would recommend all to follow the Macro Dollar charts I have posted: The...
