A good time to update the Gold chart ahead of FED/ECB combo. Let's start by reviewing the macro and understanding how we got to where we are now. The entire Macro move from 1205 begun with this breakout which we traded live last year: This breakout was the earliest warning sign of the change in chapters for the economic cycle, it was early hints for those...
A superb few months for AUD and with the Giant Panda sitting on the bid it remains my most optimistic currency in the G10 space. I am noticing impressive sizes coming in again with markets pricing the Australian recovery theme, largely driven by commodity prices which will help Chinese growth and the export outlook for AUD. Those following in the Telegram will...
Time for another forward walk in 2020, this time the focus is EURSEK. I am tracking for a year of "two halves" with the first providing support for SEK and a lot of demand for the most undervalued G10 cross. On the SEK side lets start with the Long-term chart: On the EUR side lets start with the Long-term chart: For the Swedish Macro details, Sweden is...
Although timing has been difficult, I remain bullish and expect momentum to build on this move. Rallies back above $9,000 will no longer attract selling interest and there is little in the way of near-term resistance. Looking for more opportunities to buy into dips. BTC will be sticky ahead of the key Bakkt Floor and ahead of a breach there are better expressions...
Updates coming from the previous "Banks Look Cheap vs Utilities" chart. For those who don't remember here are the flows we have been tracking: Now it is clear US 10-year Yields are starting to withdraw again, although this time Banks vs Utilities are less affected. I have been talking with clients recently around this space and there is broadly no concern....
The USD devaluation is confirming a major top in USDKRW and implying we will start to see a larger bear market here. Those following my previous models on USDKRW will know the break of 1178 has unlocked the lows. Focus is now shifting towards the 2018 trend-line, a technical break of this will do significant damage: With a USD macro top confirmed, I am...
A timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle: Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this...
Here we are tracking a 5 wave sequence in the making for NZDCAD and AUDCAD. Commodity currencies are equally sensitive to global risk sentiment. NZD coughed and struggled to take back 0.63x however with RBNZ Nov cuts overpriced and extended meaning gyrations in NZD x's are a lot easier to trade than CAD. The same flows are in play for AUD; looking for the...
A good time to update for those tracking the GBPJPY position I posted yesterday will remember the timely entry, those unfamiliar with the chart can see here: Risk-off is entering back into the picture and JPY is finding a strong bid, with Pound in election mode momentum is not particularly impressive to the upside. A Conservative majority seems a done deal...
Pound continues to be hijacked by politics in “election mode” with GBP trading higher on the Conservatives lead in weekend opinion polls. Overshooting the resistance here is cascading soft stops although momentum and sizes are not impressive and here I look to fade the highs and trade back to the inside during the election campaign and into the new Brexit...
We are going to dig deeper into our Gold maps to start getting back together with the capital flows. Before we start lets recap and understand how we got to this point. The initial break for this entire leg started here when we traded the gap from 1205 => 1305: This was the start of a 'D' leg in our long term triangle formation: A superb leg and to top...
A very interesting chart today looking at a Generic US 10Y Yield curve in comparison with Banks vs Utilities ... despite the rising correlation Utilities continue to look expensive and risks are elevated relative to banks. This chart is showing the correlation or asset classes to US10Y moves. The pattern is consistent across the board for Banks which look...
Yesterday we saw balanced selling activity across the Crypto board from several accounts, even though spot finished virtually unchanged from the range fluctuations. Overall volumes are supportive on the local and foreign front after the recent blip: On the risk side, I remain in the bullish camp on Cryptos here for Macro-specific reasons with Fed...
An update to the AUDJPY chart as we continue in the positive US-China trade 'deal'. Asian FX is benefiting from this party as witnessed with USDCNH starting to turn down, and both AUDJPY & NZDJPY clearly breaking higher. Most of the usual commentators are remaining suppressed via the absence of detail and the fact that (slightly less) protectionism is still...
Although no longer necessary a sweep of the highs to 100 would make XSD much easier to trade as we enter into the next economic cycle down. Those following in the Telegram will know I have been tracking the highs in Consumer staples from a Waves perspective here: As the final target has been reached which coincides with a Technical double top (at least so far...
Here a very technical chart with lots of magical trend lines, very clean and easy to follow; a break above the descending trendline to the topside @ 1.85 will negate the long-term downtrend that has been in place. It will expose the September highs at 1.907 and 1.937 respectively. Price will lead sentiment and therefore a break to the topside will imply a round...
Here we are tracking CHF which continues within the wide choppy range; From a strictly technical studies perspective...it is starting to show signs of trading oversold and there may be further unwinding of longs to come with the next leg in the USD weakness: On the political side, Brexit outflows continue pouring into CHF as the destruction of the UK...
As widely anticipated over the weekend Conservative lead widening and reflecting in Cable strength. The 1.292x - 1.282x remains of interest to me, here expecting 1.30 to hold ahead of elections as momentum in Pound looks apathetic at best. The "People vs Establishment" narrative continues to pick up steam: This sadly is a necessary component in the collapse...
