The DXY completed its retracement from the October decline, and now looks to be in retreat. A dramatic change is coming for the FX board and AUD will continue to rally as USD loses its shine. For now, funding flows that I can see in house seem to be balanced, this will not remain the case for much longer, mark my words. A rally here will break us out of the...
I wont be covering the macro here today as I have widely mentioned it in the latest Telegram posts. There is a palpable difference in market perceptions around risk, and with that comes opportunity to capitalise on the mis-pricing. Japanese banks have been shrinking foreign exposure and reducing JPY loans, this is a push up factor for JPY and will help us...
A good time to update the Weekly Bitcoin chart as we enter into the next impulsive wave; markets have been positioning in choppy waters since I called the huge crash last year: Bitcoin, perhaps with an eye on the economic cycle, delivered very much at the bullish end of expectations as Libra started to cough. A breakout here will leave markets in no doubt...
A lot of messages coming in around Brexit and GBP pairs... with elections making the rounds lets start by reviewing our probability tree: As you can see markets are underpricing the expectations of this to be completed by year-end with Boris sprinting for the finish line. The Government always had a 'cummings' plan B and Downing Street looks set to get this...
A rather different update here after the latest private polls I have access to come in again. The UK public is completely blind to what is going on behind the curtain, it is evident with a staggering majority of those who voted to leave are not blaming Johnson at all for missing the 31st deadline. In my books, this is worth tracking as it highlights how Downing...
The last few weeks have not much fun for Crypto bulls, only EOS and NMR emerged relatively unscathed in my space. Now is a good time to update the BTC chart as we finally begin the next impulsive chapter in the sequence. I am tracking for a 50% move with Libra flop providing the main driver over the coming weeks. Can only continue to recommend trading the...
Here we are tracking the ending of a 5th wave in a multi-decade sequence. Those with a background in waves will know the criteria has been fulfilled for a top and turn. Let's start by reviewing the previous Monthly NQ chart: We outguessed that the 161.8% extension at 8,231 would be reached before profit taking and covering began. The clashing forces from...
NZD with busy overnight sessions as NZD inflation expectations come under further pressure. RBNZ look set to cut 25bp tonight but the market is heavily loaded on the sell-side. I only see NZDUSD going further down if we get a dovish cut tonight and in my books the RBNZ are not going to commit themselves to any further easing at this stage with the next window...
A good time to update the Gold chart as we enter into the final few sessions before Fed, it is important that we recap the movements which have led us to these levels: From a technical perspective this kickstarted the final chapters in a far larger triangle: Same story in CNY.... As you all know, ultimately there is only bids and offers in Gold,...
A good time to update the Utilities chart as it makes its first appearance here on Tradingview. The strength of the rally in cyclicals this month has been nothing shy of impressive but we are now heading into resistance. Defensives still look relatively strong, despite technical patterns starting to top in things like Consumer Staples: The map is clear...
For those tracking Platinum, we've seen a bullish break above the key 905 highs which is important in the basing formation. I am expecting Platinum to continue trading higher from here and actively buying dips. Other Commodities are also finding a floor, see Copper: Yields will continue to lead, this will remain the case as the USD has topped and most...
Strategically the SPX highs are starting to look feeble. I am tracking the highs but wary we have started to trade a wide choppy range with 3026 resistance and 2820 support. This choppy range should be treated with a neutral outlook, while I am increasingly bearish on the Mid and Long term, as long as we don't see a drastic shift in sector rotation we have room to...
Here we are witnessing Copper breaking out on the daily TF... this technical break is exposing the initial resistance at 2.700x followed then by the 2.75xx trend-line. From a strictly waves perspective we were tracking the 'C' leg in the ABC sequence: This is starting to look like a bottoming process, although the ultimate breakout is still yet to come it...
With Yields miles ahead of the moves lately we are approaching a major breakout in US banks, a relative breakout here of the downtrend will be significant going into year-end. BKX breaking out will be quite a bullish set-up for the overall market: The major top in USD will help a lot here as we enter into the next chapter in the economic cycle... highly...
A good one for the history books ... the aim to highlight is that we are now much closer to the end of the cycle than we were last year. Deja Vu? Tracking the S&P all time highs very closely; the recession scares are showing signs of emerging though the woodwork. Bears will know that it took a lot of "fuel" just to get back to these levels, they smell...
Vol completed the grind towards the "Capitulation Waters" as widely anticipated: We are now tracking the response as cascading takes place. Escalation in range breakouts look likely, I think from here Vix losses are to be limited as market focus shifts back to risk events such as Brexit.I favour tactical long Vol as investors are likely to starting hedging to...
Let's start by digging deeper into the long-term charts in Gold, Copper and US 10-year Yields. Firstly with Gold: Next, Copper: Lastly, US10Y: After recapping the old maps we have gained a perspective in the macro flows; it is clear that Gold is once again finding a strong bid and Copper is following as collateral. A bullish break up...
After the latest round of Dollar devaluation it is an important chart update to make in AUDUSD. The strategy is clear after the breakup of the July downtrend, and is providing the basis for a multi-year bounce: With the test of the lows in the reactionary demand zone, we have AUDUSD forming a very typical double bottom pattern from speculators. The measured...
