A timeless piece of content for Draghi's exit after 8 years at the ECB. On EURUSD I continue buying dips, the Brexit beta has allowed bulls time to pause, however we can continue to comfortably lean on the broader fiscal flows. Expectations are for dips to be met with large buying interest, stops can be placed comfortably below 1.106x for the day as we grind...
A good time to update the DXY chart ahead of today's ECB. Those following in the Telegram will know I have been increasingly wary over recent months of the maturing 10-year USD bull market finally coming to a close. With this said let's start with our long-term macro chartbook: In this context we can comfortably lean on long-term macro forces in...
A good time to update the Dollar wave count as we enter into the final stages of October. Lets start by digging deeper into the macro charts: Dollar devaluation focus has always been the other leg to the stool and we are finally opening this chapter. This challenging environment is requiring investors to harvest premia outside of the US FX space and as a...
A good time to update the technical chart in transports as we approach the key resistance. Taking these highs will unlock a major break higher and act as a leading indicator for other key sectors. For the ST flows, I would expect a pullback first to present a fresh buying signal as the rotation into cyclicals gains more shape: The highs are looking...
With Dollar devaluation in full swing, strategically the SPX highs are starting to look feeble. I am tracking the highs but wary we have started to trade a wide choppy range with 3026 resistance and 2820 support. This choppy range should be treated with a neutral outlook, while I am increasingly bearish on the Mid and Long term, as long as we don't see a drastic...
A good time to update the USDJPY chart as we enter into this next chapter of USD weakness. While the market has been cleansing defensive positioning with JPY longs established on trade war and brexit fears unwinding. This is coming to an end and the optimism is starting to fade, so we can look for where to engage. For the long term wave chart a simple Triangle in...
After a painful few weeks for the short-term market, as is often the case when attention is overwhelmingly focussed on the nuances of pivotal Libra wording and expectations (last week's mass exodus case-in-point). Tweaks to forward guidance were sufficient to fulfil expectations, however an up-beat Bitcoin, purposefully lacking in mainstream press looks set to...
Attention now turns to the ECB and FED where anything other than more cuts and QE Lite would be a huge shock. More interesting will be the response to the Crypto punchbowl, and it seems likely the flooding of USD supply will confirm the lows in BTC and perhaps emphasise the impact Macroeconomics has on Cryptocurrency. As such I tend to think the coming sessions...
USDTRY continues grinding higher as anticipated with sanctions next. Any de-escalation of the conflict is very unlikely currently sitting at 12% odds after announcements from Syria joining forces with the Kurds. Those wondering why the reaction has been muted so far on the FX board is because local Turkish banks continue defending Lira by selling $ in large sizes...
Markets are on edge, the calmness should not be mistaken for business as usual. The unaware do not realise there is a massive macro move cooking and ready to be plated up: Erdogan making fiery speeches saying that Turkey will not back down etc will not reflect well in markets. Investors smell desperation from local banks who have been selling $ at market in...
I have been receiving a lot of questions around the roadmap to Brexit, and with the pantomime starting again soon the aim here is to dissect the possible scenarios to Brexit and provide probabilities in the matrix. Here expecting this to be completed by year-end with Boris sprinting for the finish line. The Government is vulnerable to lose the vote given the DUP...
Here we are tracking the highs in Cable as we enter into a key resistance. Getting the last minute deal over the line has had a large FX impact as the uncertainty has drastically held back investment . This has weighed heavy on European Yield curves and on exports. We are seeing these Yield curves steepen again meaning that USD will soften, I am in the camp of...
Here we are tracking the highs in USDKRW ... from a technical perspective after clearing the required 1.272% extension in the ABC correction we have started to put in the beginning stages of a 5 wave sequence to the downside. For the long term highs in Dollar as widely expected the highs are coming and USDKRW is no exception here, protectionism isn't helping...
The global slowdown is coming and it is time to get defensive. Here we are reaching the end of the road to the downside in Gilead and a perfect instrument to work the flows with. We are tracking a break of the channel to unlock the +11% move. Let's see how it plays out over the coming days. Best of luck
A good time to update the EURJPY chart as we start trading above the key psychological 120 level. As widely expected for those following the live coverage in Telegram EUR is finding a strong bid across the board: For the long term map: The flows are simple today, completion of the ABC sequence at 121.219 while the extension at 123.782 will imply we...
~~~~~~~~~~~############## LONG MACRO POST ##############~~~~~~~~~~~ Firstly, lets begin with quick a recap of the bigger picture with our Weekly Macro EURUSD chart : On the flow side, as widely expected the ending of and the beginning of an impulsive . The 1.0905x lows held and attracted a fresh round of EUR demand. For the European fundamentals, it...
On the flow side, as widely expected the ending of and the beginning of an impulsive . The 1.0905x lows held and attracted a fresh round of EUR demand. For the European fundamentals, it should be no surprises we are starting a new chapter in fiscal policy here too, I recommend all to embrace the fiscal easing and continue to work the buy-side in EUR. Dollar...
A good time for an update to the EURUSD macro chart. Before we begin, lets quickly review the previous monthly chart: As widely anticipated, wave 2 coming to an end and marking the beginning of an impulsive wave 3. This is going to set the tone for the remainder of the decade and far beyond. The USD bull market is coming to an end: A flawless turning...
