One for the watchlists, Euro Autos showing signs of strength and look ready to breakout in the log chart. However, I am wary of any false breaks here, we are sitting at resistance, this may run out of steam so any signs of a turn I will not hesitate to sell into and would recommend all to do the same. For the flows; a weekly break above 512.xx will cascade the...
The news grabber remains Brexit, but the Crypto reaction thus far has been relatively benign. Whilst BTC initially found support at the $8,000 low, the knock-on Crypto impact has been much more limited. The main other impacted cryptos in these flows will be ETH, EOS XRP and LTC....expecting all will post gains over the coming sessions as the risk haven flows start...
Commodity currencies are equally sensitive to global risk sentiment flows. NZD coughed and struggled to take back 0.63x however with RBNZ Nov cuts overpriced and extended I like entering NZD$ longs at market with a 0.618x stop. The same flows are in play for AUD; looking for the 0.6725 support to hold with all eyes on the employment print. For the USD side: ...
A good time to review the long term chart in EURUSD as we approach the end of wave 2. This is coming at a time where global growth comes in at 2.6% vs. 4% last year; GDP although still growing at +/- 3% is priced on the US-China resolution nearing the final few pages. On the USD side , for the macro we have recession risks ticking higher (although now looking...
A good time to update the latest S&P chart as things become clearer on the Fed front. Markets positioning for a 25bps cut as a done deal and Equities enjoying the rally. We finally cleared the 3,000 level yesterday and it's time to start working the sell side with all eyes on 2,400 targets. Keeping a very close eye on Vix as we enter this final Quarter: ...
A timely update to the previous Vix chart after clearing single targets: Upon review a nice sweep of the lows is once again in play via Fed for Q419, a 25bps cut will be enough to bring the Vix back under the infamous 15 again...meaning a healthy sweep of stops at 12 is in play and would trigger a cascade of orders, the perfect environment if you want to...
A timely update to Greek Equities, with outflows reaching extreme levels it is a good time to start looking for value opportunities. This move will have momentum behind it and I am a buyer of any pullbacks into support here. This will not be the first time Greece breaks correlation from global equity flows and it is worth a look as we edge closer to a breakout...
Here I continue to track the highs in USDNOK for a very long time and likely till the next decade. With Dollar devaluation in full swing and Norges Bank famously the last Hawk standing it is time to start working the sell side. For those tracking the previous Technical Portrait this was the initial chart I am tracking: On the Dollar side I continue to...
Introducing Technical Portraits ...a flow forecast for EURGBP over the coming sessions. Lets start by digging into the daily chart we are currently tracking: With last weeks 'progress' revised and the Queens Speech 'cleared' we can comfortably begin to buy the floor at 0.872x. This is strong support and will attract a lot of selling interest in GBP. We...
A good time for an update to the GBPJPY chart after the latest Brexit updates and UK employment prints. On the technicals we remain in the flows created from the same swing we traded in the Spring: This has been a non-stop down move ever since the highs, a superb example of swing trading for all to witness. It is these exact flows which still provide the...
On the Fundamentals the Libra flop as widely anticipated acting as a push up factor for BTC, ETH, EOS and to a lesser extent XRP. Aggressively loading all main cryptos around current levels ahead of Fed refilling the QE punch bowl later this month....it's happy hour. For the long term flows the waves are crystal clear mapping out the elegant grind higher: ...
![GBPUSD: HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM! .. [Buckingham Palace Diary]](https://s3.tradingview.com/g/gt80i3M9_mid.png "HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM! .. [Buckingham Palace Diary]")
A good time to review the Cable chart ahead of an important Queen's speech. There is no better time than now to start tracking for further short exposure in Sterling if you are not already heavily loaded with a full clip. Those following the flows since the very beginning will remember the superb start to this channel: We have traded no less than 20+...
Here we are tracking EURGBP as the short-lived optimism turned bitter. Risks are skewed to the topside until damage from Brexit is fully addressed, with last weeks 'progress' quickly revised all hinges on the Queens Speech next. Those following will know I have been of the view that brexit will have a pervasive impact on the UK economy. Since the BOE rate...
Here tracking a breakout in XRP of the channel highs, tracking initial targets at 0.332x with extensions up at 0.437x ... All eyes on NY bidding the open today to confirm the break. On the BTC front we have the infamous "Bakkt Floor" holding as widely anticipated: On the ETH front a large zigzag in play: On the EOS front: ...As long as the Bakkt...
With tail risks making positioning very tricky, here we have a very good macro chart showing the high bar for any growth shock and how it weighs heavy on risk appetite. All year long expectations around monetary policy easing have been in the driving seat while geopolitics shouts loudly from the sidelines. The protectionism we are seeing is already starting to...
Here we are tracking the BTC weekend flows, before we start lets dig deeper on the Long term chart: We know we are tracking the ending of this pullback miniture wave inside an impulsive leg to the topside. For the current flows things are very similar.. the starting of another impulsive sequence, no surprises this time for the Bakkt floor : All clean...
A good time to review the Copper chart, with a clearly cautious market and hesitant to break the lows before Fed. I am looking for a daily close below the lows to trigger a cascade of stops and resolve the pending ABC completion. For the targets 2.45316 and 2.23342 are in play as long as the downtrend remains intact. From a waves perspective we remain in...
Hawks turning to doves, BOE ready with 50bp of front loaded cuts and a restart of TFS with a no-deal Brexit only weeks away. We are going to see an aggressive leg to the topside here after all the mis-pricing from a softer exit. It makes complete sense to me that the Pound will continue under pressure in the mid-term with no break-through since the Supreme Court...
