Here we are tracking the beginning of a -20% swing in USDNOK as we enter into the final Quarter of 2019. This is against the trend, start small, look to scale in, remain nimble and when it starts working we can go large. On the Fundamentals side, Norges raising rates 25bp earlier in the month to 1.50%, rate markets are now pricing another hike in Q120 despite...
A good time to update the weekly chart in DXY, I am looking for a meaningful devaluation in Dollar via Fed intervention for Q4. Trump unequivocally has to devalue the Dollar as it becomes crunch time for Equities. The late cycle backdrop with weaker growth and higher inflation is increasing uncertainty around the macro argument and with that look for opportunities...
A good time to update the GBPJPY chart, lets start by firstly digging up the leg we are following: So far a very good example of how to trade waves, we are now tracking the ending of wave 2 and a transition into the impulsive 3rd leg in this journey. The invalidation for this entire move comes into play above 136.0x ...I am wary of a sweep and remain cautious...
Here we can keep things very simple and trade the breakup as soft stops are triggered. On the US side, Inflation flopping in the US will make a 25bp cut later this month from FED a done deal. From the Telegram: "Otherwise Inline/undershoots will trigger continuation of the elegant recovery we are witnessing in AUD$ and NZD$." The next level in play at...
Here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15 years of the previous bullish USD cycle we are reaching the end of the road. To put simply, we are tracking NFP for any early confirmations that the current retrace leg (wave 2) has finished. For the Weekly we have two simple flows to track; On the Macro side we...
A good time for an update to the ETH chart with the start of Q4. For the map, what are we tracking? A textbook ending of a 5 wave sequence and a live transition towards an ABC corrective zigzag. Markets are heavily supported with the infamous "Bakkt floor" : The moves in Bitcoin will be enough to carry ETH as collateral, expecting the Crypto punch bowl to...
As widely expected since last year USDTRY storming higher with TRY cratering. The relentless 6.78 and 7.8 targets are in play again, meaning those who are bearish can continue to twist the knife causing maximum pain to the Lira. Here we are not discussing pips, rather we are talking about a 30% move in a currency. A macro swing which has been very simple to...
Here looking for further upside with NY as the Crypto punch bowl gets refilled. Expecting the EOS lows to hold as widely called here in September: All eyes on EOS flirting with the breakup as early as today NY session...We'll keep the chart updated as we go and open the conversation for all to jump in with their ideas. Best of luck all those in EOS and other...
The floor has been put in as widely expected, you can see there is not intention of letting Bitcoin depreciate any further. Improving Bitcoin fundamentals via Libra delay is helping us shift value higher. You see back here this recommendation: Price drivers are supporting flows to Bitcoin, you have to forward walk and say going forward the flow of Crypto...
Here tracking the current 2.xx lows in EOS and expecting bulls to hold the technical cart. Moving as collateral after the bloodbath in BTC with EOS stops cascading in very light liquidity. Dismal geopolitics with Trump impeachment odds by year-end ticking higher (now 48%) will be enough to keep Crypto in bid. Actively buying 2.695 and looking for 6.88 initial...
Here we are tracking Gold as risk enters back into play as widely anticipated since Turkey/Syria combo headlines flooded the wires this weekend. To top it off we have risk from US-China trade later in the week, Brexit, and Canadian elections to name but a few... On the technicals we can place our stop below the barrier at 1485 as it has become support while for...
We have two moving pieces here... On the USD side after Powell confirming what we already knew yesterday that they will be introducing "QE Lite" .. simply meaning we are going to mark the highs for a very long time in USD. Recession is coming, capital preservation is a must. I am completely flat on fixed income, heavily loaded in FX and tracking earnings...
As widely anticipated we are seeing the bid being raised in ETH, the Crypto punch bowl was refilled via Fed and the party will go on. Dollar devaluation is the only game in town and all eyes once again are back on $290 for ETHUSD.... A straightforward zigzag is in play over the coming Quarter, with DAI providing the ebb and flow. : I highly recommend all in...
A heads up for the flows this week in GBPJPY, we are trading a very advanced call outguessing the Supreme Court decision meaning headline and event risk remain on high alerts . PM Johnson is 6 weeks away from the finishing line for a no-deal, Pound will continue to bounce between the wide range which makes things a lot easier from a technical perspective. Here...
As we enter into the end of the week a good time to update the long term economic strategy with BRLMXN. There are plenty of ways to take advantage of the pension reform in Brazil as this is going to provide steel support for Brazilian exposure. We are using MXN as a vehicle for this cycle as the erosion continues. For the technicals we are trading at the very...
Here I continue to lean on RUB longs with another Fed cut coming very soon. The funding currency is switching from USD to EUR, meaning that inflation will continue to fall. On the Russian side, softening PMIs did put pressure on the RUB however markets are ambitiously pricing a CBR cut which I believe is out of scope for the next meeting. For the flows : Sell...
A good time for a well needed CADJPY chart update. It has been almost a year since we reviewed the previous macro swing, a flawless 9% selloff: A similar environment as we enter into the final Quarter this Year, risk appetite has abated with investors moving to a more defensive global view. I continue to expect JPY to remain a major winner in this...
We are going to dig deeper into the fundamentals and technicals for CADJPY . For the Fundamental side we have the US sneezing and with investors quick to diagnose it means CAD will also suffer and begin to weigh heavy on the crosses as we enter into election mode. On the BoC side, they have been sat on the sidelines all year long with rates stuck at 1.75%....
