A good time for an update to the S&P chart with the Month and Quarter close. It is becoming clearer that returns are below par with vol increasing (see VIX chart) Cyclical stocks are significantly behind and with momentum fading it's time to start trading the next leg to the downside. Risk entering back onto the global scene via protectionism and is now...
A late chart update here after calling the lows live in the room... The infamous ECB floor is showing signs of permanently raising higher, with USD devaluation entering into play via Fed we may see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum. Support for USD is starting to run out, with all roads leading to weakness the highs in DXY are likely set for a very...
Here we can see the market is not quite ready to resume the underlying impulsive uptrend. We have an two opportunities; firstly to load more 'cheap' entries on this correction and secondly to load on the break of the 13,000 highs. If this is an incomplete ABC which can pullback as far as 8982.58, this will be the area to track for any signs of a reversal...
Here tracking the current floor in BTC as a good opportunity to begin working the bid. The early bulls before Bakkt have been cleared in a healthy range reset, shorts will begin covering and long term holders are once again ready to add bullish exposure. After clearing the targets for those following the previous flow coverage we are set to begin building...
Here we are tracking a bounce from the Bakkt floor after a massacre yesterday. Large hands flushing out all the soft retail traders who got caught offside in the middle of wide chop. The mid-long term charts are crystal clear, as anticipated we found a strong bid from the beginning of the year; breaking 6,200 unlocked the all time highs. For the flows...
With RBNZ toning down their dovishness and taking a leaf from Governor Lowe at the RBA I like sitting on the NZD bid again. On the USD side with Fed openly adopting a dollar devaluation leg, the view is that NZDUSD retreats higher into the 0.640x. Tracking sentiment around impeachment, saudi, trade war and brexit closely for any disruptions to the flow... While...
Here we are tracking a round of macro prints from Sweden, with markets already heavily betting against the Riksbank's forward guidance I expect continuation of the same flows. On the technical side, a break of the recent channel we have been tracking will be enough to trigger the capital outflows as SEK bulls begin to cover and fast money accounts re-price the...
A good time to update the latest EURUSD chart after an action packed few weeks in markets. The immediate risk for EURUSD is a move lower to cement the ECB floor via rate differentials. For those who have been following the previous conversations in Telegram on rate differentials; a good time to review the chart telegraphed miles in advance. You will notice the...
With RBA cleared and taking a less dovish than expected path we have finally unlocked the topside. Both RBA and RBNZ policy diverging from expectations AUD and NZD are starting to look very attractive towards the buy side again and offer good opportunities for longer term swings into year-end. We are trading a swing to the topside with entry 0.675x, target...
Those tracking USDJPY got the decisive break below the 107.5 that we were tracking very closely. This is opening up the ladder for a nice sweep all the way down towards support at 105.5. A very bearish daily close for risk markets yesterday, NY will follow through on the selling, impeachment is not going anywhere and Brexit continues to not get any better....
Here we are tracking a continuation of the current risk correction into the Quarterly end positioning. Tracking for the current weakness to extend into the next cluster of stops, high probabilities of stops cascading and triggering momentum. For those already holding shorts it is business as usual, continue to sell into rallies. Those sidelined and looking...
Here we go for a big day across UK markets. The Supreme Court will announce its decision on whether the proroguing was unlawful this morning. In my books this is not going to materially change the future path of Brexit. Whispers making the waves around the City that the government has lost the case… ...Any positive knee-jerk reaction in GBP should be...
Here we are tracking the bottom in AUDCAD ahead of important Labour data from AUD on Thursday. On the AUD side there is still a lot of market slack which is keeping wage growth tepid. The Australian economy has been squeezed via China-US trade tensions, which weighed heavy on the Australian housing market via extended balance sheets. The monetary side has...
Here tracking the lows in vol as we enter into Fed flows. A tick above 15 will be enough to cascade the ladder, smelling major risk off coming to our screens for the Q close...For those tracking the highs of the cycle that can be set in S&P with the Vix above 15. Divergence in VVIX sending loud messages that VIX is going to spike... unaware retail will not see...
Here we are tracking the last chance for bulls to defend the retrace, the 2017 lows are vulnerable and going to prompt a correction in rate differentials. On the European side , the boat has been heavily loaded on the sell side for some time and smart money is now sniffing for any changes in fear of overstaying. Expectations for ECB easing is ticking higher and...
Here we are tracking the flows post ECB in EURUSD. A lot of updates on the monetary side, the ECB introducing two tiered deposit rates attempting to protect credit channels whilst reducing the effects in FX on lower rates. To put simply, tiering is there to act as a shield with front-loading effects and keep Deutsche Bank et al “alive” till the end of the year....
Those following the previous chapters in BTC will know we have been expecting a test of the highs all year long; Here we are tracking a final leg before we enter into the next chapter with Bakkt. There is no rush for the leg up, it is only a matter of time before it comes. To put simply, this is a very advanced technical call taking advantage of soft retail...
A good time for an update to the H4 chart here; we have been tracking the break of this downward channel to mark an end to the retrace and finally we got it as expected. Now it is time to begin loading longs again; an impulsive leg in nature is cooked and with all the Brexit cards now turned "face-up", we know fundamentals are on our side. We traded the Sterling...
