Here we can see on the weekly chart how the cross is caught between 1.35 - 1.30 and approaching the apex of the sequence. To the downside a break below 1.302x is needed to do damage to the current uptrend and will unlock support at 1.278x. Whilst to the topside, a break above the top in the triangle would be bold for bulls and expose 1.366x and the all time highs...
The technical damage here is severe, a wound that cannot be healed with a bandage, time is the only healer here. We have less than 60 days till the official fact of Brexit is stamped, meaning there is room for some further downside in Pound as FX markets price the reduction in market access and balance sheet adjustments. Eyes on 120 as a good level to do some...
We will not be covering the fundamentals here as it has widely been tracked in the live room and in previous ideas from the archive. I highly recommend those wanting to dig deeper to see the related ideas for more information on the macro side. On the technicals, a clean break of the triangle since 2016 before making new highs. A pullback and retest of that...
As mentioned in the channel update... On the AUD side , RBA are expected to leave rates unchanged after the 50bp in June/July. Expecting the RBA to take a more upbeat and positive tone around early signs that house prices are stabilising, decent job creation and a sweet spot from fiscal and monetary stimulus. In the UK, sadly politics once again in full...
A good time for a quick update to the Pound chart as we enter into a very important week for the UK. Sadly politics once again in full control of markets. Parliament are back from their well needed holidays and have one week to save the country. Probabilities of no-deal will swing this week and carry GBP with it. I continue heavily selling GBP across all...
On the risk side as much as the media is trying to sell the China softening stance there is little evidence of any change. Premier Liu sending loud messages yesterday that China has enough tools to ensure growth. With this backdrop and no changes to the Whitehouse administration protectionist tactics, in my books markets should not be optimistic of any changes in...
Here we are tracking the end of a multi year sequence, the wave count has finally reached its target and the market has hit the required levels to trigger profit taking. Smart money is all over the lows here like a rash, any signs of a base building will attract selling interest in THB and ignite the move. With the end of cycle approaching, no one wants to be...
Here we are tracking the widely mentioned breakout in Silver. As previously covered in the latest idea "Time for Silver to outperform" .. There is a lot more meat on the bone from a Silver perspective than Gold. This will remain attractive to all betting on the bid as we enter into the ECB/Fed combo tomorrow. It is no surprises we are sitting on key 16.649...
The downside is wide open, Tokyo tried the downside early in Asia before London began taking profit. Pound longs are giving up already with no-deal now a done-deal. Mainstream media will shift to a heavier tone, and with another +/- 900 ticks to go I prefer to sell rallies from here. GBPJPY buyers will attempt to come in at 128.5x, and expect more interest on...
Here we can see the market is trading within a large 5 wave cycle. So far the 4th wave has an incomplete ABC corrective sequence with a pending C swing to complete. Highly recommend all those tracking Fed this week to keep an eye here as the bid expires it's time to look for a material high. This thesis implies the natural target in this C swing is 1220.xx...
Here we are tracking a breakdown in Oil via the supply and demand side. On the fundamentals, same story we have been tracking all year.... narrowing backwardations and POTUS in full protectionist mode. For the technicals the lows set two weeks ago at 50.51 are vulnerable and open to be swept. I expect NY to set things straight here and trigger the momentum...
Here we are tracking a break of the recent consolidation in the channel after the break of 7. A daily close above the red trend line will trigger the flows naturally towards the channel top at 7.164x. To the downside all pullbacks towards previous resistance will attract buying interest along with the ascending channel base expected to attract bids. Highly...
A good time for a quick USDJPY chart update. For all those following the live updates from the room you will know we have been heavily short here since Q418; after clearing our first target at 105.2x from the Fed flows we are witnessing profit taking. The consolidation period will come to an end in September when the risk-off flows kickstart again, for those...
Here we go for Jackson … Fed policy is what matters this weekend and in my books markets are headed for a bearish surprise. The inverted curve is going to create a USD shortage and keep USD higher which will undermine risk assets. Fed funds are now pricing almost 100 bps of cuts by Sept 2020, though Fed talking heads are saying there is no urgency to move again....
Here we can see the SNB sidelined from aggressively intervening; the rationale behind this comes from EURCHF. The current environment is providing a strong bid for countercyclicals like JPY and CHF; as long as trade tensions remain, global growth will continue slowing and global bond yields will continue to fall. On the technical side we have room for USDCHF to...
Here we are tracking the highs in Russell with the market finding support above the 38.2% retracement of the current swing. This is going to resolve to the downside, any test of resistance to the topside at 1535 will attract selling interest and keep the highs capped. To the downside, support at 1497 remains soft with steel support located at 1477. Below there...
A timely update to the technical chart for Nasdaq with risk entering back into play as we approach Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. We are not going to cover the fundamentals here today, for those wanting to dig deeper there I would recommend the Telegram archives. On the technical side the map is crystal clear as we approach the end off summer; Steel resistance...
Here we go for Fed minutes today…markets are expecting a muted event today with all focus on Powell at Jackson Hole. Fed’s Daly (see attached) wrote that she still see’s recession risks as low and in a measured approach challenges Powell to not bend the knee. Markets are heading for a disappointment this weekend, expectations are hoping for a very dovish Powell...
