Here we are tracking the soft floor coming in Yields once more. We have been in perfect sync with the previous legs down ahead of the Fed cut fact, now it is time once more to trade the expectation of another 25bp cut, this time in September with Trump and markets trying to force the Powell hand again. The topside of the channel will attract a lot of buying...
Here we are tracking the transition into light illiquid summery markets. This is going to show in AUD as the market looks particularly stretched after FED. The USD rebound is in play; those short in AUDUSD have cleared their main targets and now we can start to find a bid on short-covering. A good time to work longs till September with very little prevention to...
Here we are tracking the market rolling over after confirming the 25bp cut. Bulls are truly exhausted and coughing at the highs, it is a screaming short across the basket... if you are not already in there is still plenty of time to work the offer next week. Valuations are stretched, summer trading begins and therefore it is portfolio clearing time for all USD...
As time passes this looks more and more like a 5 wave decline since the October 2018 highs. We are cooking for one final sweep of the lows as liquidity begins to fade for summer. The final hurdle to clear before business will close is Fed, here tracking for a 50bp cut to kickstart the easing cycle. On the technical side; the market will have to break above...
A very good time for a chart update in GBPJPY after we cleared the targets in our widely tracked "GBPJPY time to start working the sell-side" idea. This previous leg as you can see in the attached chart archive was a flawless 1300 tick swing and it is finally time to start tracking the exhaustion. A typical 4th wave will take place now; and often retrace 23.6%...
Here we are coming to the end of the corrective wave within the underlying bull trend. The time has come to start getting to work on the top-side here again, this is a move we have been tracking for some months (see attached). We are going to be exploring the speed limit of the dollar over the next few months so buckle up and get ready for some very large moves...
Here tracking a 5th and final leg lower in US yields. The selloff since November 2018 has looked impulsive in nature, since we marked a 4th wave the bounce from the latest lows, the bounce has met the ABC corrective target at 2.141%. We are also capped below the 38.2% and the 50MA for those trading the 'tactical rebound into Fed'. We 'know' the price wont run...
Here we can see the market has broken out of the downtrend since June 2019. This comes after a very dovish ECB failed to meet expectations with a rate cut yesterday. Price needs to get above 15.76x to confirm the retracement back towards the initial 38.2% target with extensions beyond that if necessary. To the topside 16 looks within reach this summer, whilst to...
Here we are tracking wave 'iii' in the current leg and we are using the MACD as our weapon of choice to trigger. This time it is very simple, we are going to buy the next black cross on our ridethepig MACD; as long as the cross is above the $7,435 (the lows in wave 'ii') then we have a valid ridethepig trigger. In terms of targets; the natural extension in...
As widely anticipated we got the wedge breakout; however the nature of the break has not been similar to the previous. It is very typical for wedge breaks to retrace the entire duration of the swing from the inception of the pattern. We have a very difficult environment for Fed / NFP combo. With only crumbs left on the plate to chase higher, it is clear the meat...
Those who have been following the latest Pound trades will know we are already on the sell-side here. Here is the latest wave count on the weekly chart, we are playing the range set between 50.0% - 76.4% of the retracement leg since the January 2016. Dollar strength is coming via yields so we have large money on the move here, the leg will be fast and...
The nature of the rally since March looks impulsive in nature, after clearing the final targets for wave 3 we now need to track a pullback 4th wave of an incomplete 5 wave sequence. If my thesis is correct, we have room to make new highs well into the 0.90+ bracket. For the pullback 4th wave we should not retrace any further than 23.6% - 38.2% (0.88608 and...
Here we are tracking for signs of a temporary base forming in Cable and other Sterling crosses. The market has started to show signs of exhaustion as we approach the lows which coincide with the ABC sequence targets 1.23617. The lows in the range are widely tracked by all and those outguessing a 50bp Fed will be rewarded. To the topside, resistance comes into...
A good time for an update to the chart here; after the descending wedge in the 5th wave we have begun a volatility expansion process. We are first going to track the 'B' leg; ideally markets will look for a retrace back towards 1.14xx in order for smart money to load for the 'C' leg before ending the larger wave II of the entire leg from early 2018. I will be...
Here we can see the line of the sand to the topside is 98.42 which is the ABC corrective target in the 'B' leg. This is the level to track for a meaningful top, here I am positioned for a 50bp cut this week across all portfolios. We have widely tracked the coverage of Fed and US economy in the chatrooms so we will not cover the macro here today. On the technical...
Here we are tracking the major highs in Oil ahead of an important Fed next week. The ECB has marked the end of the pullback from our initial positioning leg, we have added juice into the pot and with Kuwait coming back online the mainstream narrative will change after the close today. This is something we have widely tracked in the chatrooms, the institutional...
Here we can argue that Cable has completed the 5th wave after clearing the stops at the 1.24 barrier. This was widely tracked in the institutional updates, although we didn't finish the projected target at 1.22729 we came crumbs away. This level is now necessary to break in order to confirm the downside. To put simply, in my books with BoJo widely baked into the...
The market is sitting at the very lows right on time for ECB. We will not cover the Fundamental side here as this is in the main institutional chatroom... This strong support will mark the 4th wave from 2018. Those with a background in fibs and waves will know that for now price is capped below the 23.6% from the previous cycle; this in theory is the maximum...
