Here we are tracking for a tactical rebound as we go into July Fed to 50-day. The rebound in payrolls last Friday is weighing on market expectations for a 50bps rate cut this month. The repricing we’ve seen is closer in nature to a 25bp cut and with the short-circuit in expectations it is “loading time” again for risk-off assets. Given the circumstances a 50bps...
Here a very advanced move for NFP in play for $GS. We are tracking major highs and from a technical sense this is a screaming sell, the market is overbought in a downtrend... we can keep things simple here. Given the global growth scares and negative yields, the opportunity cost for holding $GS is not making it attractive enough for more allocations. I expect...
Here we have a clear break with Gold cracking through the tops in the range that were in place for 3 years. This was a very clean ABCDE triangle which is naturally progressing towards a very impressive target at 1595.x All dips should be bought and used to re-engage bullish exposure. Continue adding topside momentum, the cheap value tickets are available at 1385...
Here we are tracking the highs for a very long time in US Equities...those betting on the end of cycle risk correction via Fed July cuts have one level to track 7855.25. Momentum is starting to fade to the upside and bulls are looking exhausted, this is a textbook exhaustion leg cooking that we will trade live. A break under 7502.75 will unlock a momentum leg...
Prior ECB policy easing has devalued the Euro ...I believe it is a good time for a long-term chart update in EURUSD as we dig deeper into the effects of unconventional ECB policy has had on the Euro. It is difficult to ignore the clear law of diminishing returns and implies further rate cuts from the ECB will not devalue the Euro, but instead could lift EURUSD by...
Nimbus clouds are appearing on the monetary side across the globe, whilst Europe starts to clear risks in a similar nature to that of 2017. There is an underlying bid for the EUR, appreciation pressure remains in what is becoming a "race to the bottom" for G10 FX. Inflation swap markets are screaming for attention from the ECB ahead of the important CB combo next...
Copper looks to be setting up for a very interesting leg cooking here, completely dislocated from others metals. The sell-off looks corrective in nature inside a much larger impulsive move (outside of the scope in this conversation...we'll save that for later). Watch for signs of a turn around current levels (2.7454 - 38.2% retrace). The target for this final...
Those with a background in waves will know we are currently sitting at a very key level which will simply define the nature of the current leg we are trading. From a strictly technical perspective, the market has so far been capped under the resistance after a lot of profit taking. This was the ABC target from the December lows as well as the 61.8% retrace from...
Here is a textbook elliotwave chart, any pullbacks here should catch a strong bid with invalidation on the pattern coming in below 1,125, no surprises it is the top in wave 1. The underlying trend is clearly bullish and I see no reason for this trend to not continue on towards 1,850. Those who are looking for positions here, it is inside range trading time...
This impulsive move is making its way through resistance like a knife and butter, the break implies that we are finally ready to start trading above 0.700x again as widely mentioned in previous ideas. After building a solid base we are entering in the 3rd wave of a 5-wave advance towards 0.703x. The minimum target for this 3rd wave is 0.681x, naturally this is...
As is the case in the latest Dollar chart we are sitting at a significant level, if we take 1.142x resistance it will unlock the impulsive nature in the rally. We have covered widely the floor being built in EUR over the previous weeks, given the fact we held above the wedge breakout it implies that there is potential for continuation towards 1.157x. To put...
We are currently sitting at key support in the sell-off since May, the only level in play for this coming week is 95.86 ... as widely mentioned in previous ideas (see attached for the archived charts) the impulsive nature shows potential for continuation towards 94. Assuming the market does break down, the minimum target for the 3rd wave will be down at 94.68. A...
Here we have an update to the USDCLP daily chart...the selloff since the highs in May 2019 looks impulsive in nature and we are forming a very clear 5 wave sequence to the downside. This is implying that there is a meaningful top in place, a break below 675 will open the floodgates for 659 where we may see some consolidation (4th wave) before marking the 'C'...
Shorts are being squeezed with a small bump in high vs low beta.. here we are tracking an overbought rally into resistance, in simple words it is a very good place to be short. Attached below is a chart showing performance relative to S&P, we are failing to break out which is screaming alerts to start unwinding longs as we enter into the big trade discussion...
Here the market is breaking through the 38.2% like a knife and butter. This is looking very much like a longer term bull trend continuation from a wave perspective with all the signals skewed towards the topside. Target-wise the next line in the sand comes into play at 13,348 which is the ABC target in the sequence. A break through here will confirm that the...
Our first Eurostoxx 'ridethepig' chart upload on Tradingview... Here we are witnessing the final fumes in this corrective process. The area we need to track is 3515 - 3533 which will include the ABC count from the lows in June. To put simply, anything below here will still be considered part of the corrective sequence (those with a background in waves will know...
As most of you following will already know I have been calling for a BRL correction since last year. This has been a classic 5 wave sequence unfolding at the August 2018 highs. Since then we have formed the A and B leg of an incomplete ABC count which will ultimately target the 3.50 lows. That will include the ABC target as well as the 61.8% retrace of the Vth...
Here we are tracking the end of a rally since Q2 2018, the bid has exhausted and is looking corrective in nature. We confirmed a test of resistance at 1195 which held, this was an ABC sequence from the lows. To put simply, it is possible that the entire rally we saw since last year has been counter trend and against the macro flows. If this is correct then we...
