A good time for a chart update in Gold ... we are flirting in overbought extreme territories and here starting to unwind positions as we approach the next main targets in the swing at 1422.x Dovish Fed via inflation is causing the break as markets are already starting to price a 50bps cut in July. The USD ship is turning ... if you are not holding some Gold from...
On the monthly we can argue the case for 2-year yields being inside a 4th wave correction of a 5 wave sequence since the cycle lows. This advance started in 2011 and for it to remain true we need to remain above the 50% retrace (1.761) which we are currently sitting on. Anything below here will put questions towards the nature of this rally and destroy...
Here we are tracking for a floor to form at the front end of the curve. We are currently sitting at key 1.761 support; this will attract buying interest and also mark a good level for shorts to begin unwinding. The congestion area below which includes extension targets will be enough to cap any squeeze/overshoots to the downside. I will also be uploading a...
All eyes on 0.66885, the ABC target for the minor wave here. A tick higher will open the floodgates for 0.70xx and confirm the bounce is truly impulsive in nature. This will be a very loud message that the rally will be identical to that of the one since the October 2018 lows. A break above 0.66885 will open an initial target at 0.68122 for the 3rd wave in the...
Here we have a very simple setup in USDCAD with all eyes on 1.2969. This is the ABC sequence target from the highs, here tracking closely the price action as we approach these levels to determine whether infact the breakdown is corrective or impulsive in nature. A break below the 1.2969 line in the sand will secure the highs and kickstart the moves back towards...
Those following the previous USDCHF idea (see attached: "Tracking the highs in USDCHF (Weekly)" will know that we have potential to retrace as far as 0.918x from this move. After attempting to break the highs in the wedge we aggressively sold off, in other words all those breakout traders and momentum bets were caught on the wrong side by smart money tracking...
A good time for a chart update here after the impulsive wedge break. After cracking through resistance, moving averages and everything else inbetween we are starting to reach the first target at 1.142x for the ABC sequence. From a technical perspective, those with a background in waves will know a rally through these levels will officially define the move as...
The move to the downside is starting to look impulsive in nature as we crack through important moving averages, supports and etc. Those who are riding it from the highs well done, the next levels for us to track is 95.86 which is the ABC sequence target from the highs last month. Any breaks below here immediately opens 94.68 for a test which would then imply (most...
We are trading on the NOK side, the monetary policy divergence between Norges Bank and the rest of central bank expectations around the world will be enough to keep NOK rallying. These guys are literally the only guys in town still hiking, a very obvious trade from a fundamental perspective and looks particularly attract from the technical side. As you all...
Here we are tracking a base forming in Copper ahead of July Fed. A good time to update the chart, for those following the previous Copper short chart (see attached: "Copper next to lose its shine... Strong Dollar prevails") the offer is naturally expiring with the pivot in Dollar flows. The invalidation for this setup comes with a daily close below the 2.528...
Tracking very closely this chart over the coming weeks...we are aligning for a very different landscape across the board with the next stages in the cycle. Dollar devaluation is coming. The titanic is turning, it will not be fast but the fundamentals are on our side. Uncertainties around global trade has caused a demand shock which hampers inflation expectations...
Here we are tracking the coming floor in AUD ... I would highly recommend those wanting to dig deeper into the Australian domestic and fundamental reasons behind this move to see the attached charts from the archive as we will not be covering that here today. Copper is finding a bid as the Dollar devaluation kicks in...interest rate differentials are beginning...
Watch for signs of an impulsive bounce here in Yields ... we have reached main targets for the ABC corrective sequence and it is profit taking for all shorts. Expect a lot of noise on the political front whilst we build support. To put simply, there is a lot of congestion around these levels, it will be difficult to break through here on the first test. Best...
Interestingly investors lack willingness on the risk front despite a US - China G20 meeting on the cards. Markets are skeptical of a deal as the preluding tone is even more neutral than last November when Trump and Xi had a similar call. Current tariffs are still going to weigh heavy on growth, an earnings recession looks a done deal with the weakening US outlook...
Here tracking the flows ahead of BoC. Cad has been soft and drifted lower which has been enough for USDCAD to reach the highs in the recent range. The market sentiment which will dominate the flows today is for a supportive BoC and I remain a CAD bull for today's decision. On the trade side, Trudeau is taking the first steps for ratifying USDMCA. Cad...
A very similar setup across all USD pairs here as NZDUSD shorts become over-stretched. Here tracking an initial correction back towards 0.66 in the coming sessions as markets begin to price dovish Fed expectations into USD. The main target in the swing here is 0.70 (see attached: NZD rate repricing). Those following the conversation on NZD these past few weeks...
EURUSD has been soft yesterday but losses are moderate, notably the bid got stronger since the European close. The 1.113 lows held for the daily close and we are sitting at steel support in the bottom of our 1.126 - 1.113 range for the European open. We have an important ECB/Fed combo coming next month, this is going to get very interesting as markets start...
On the technical side the minimum targets for a Vth wave flattening trend that started since 2011 have been met. This completed sequence show's there is plenty of room to steepen over the coming Quarters. So far we have seen wave A and B of an incomplete ABC. Well done all those who are riding the 'C' leg with us. Best of luck to those who are positioned for...
