For those with a background in waves you will know a 4th wave typically does not retrace more than 50%, in this case 2.55%. Anything above here will question the possibility of a bottom already being placed. The rise in yields since March has looked impulsive so far which can be early hints and signals that a further move higher is coming. The only level in play...
Here we can see the market breaking out of a multi year trend with a confirmed retest. It has held the target for an expanding or running flat from Feb 2017 highs. For those who are familiar with oscillators you will have noticed the positive divergence. This means it is time to start paying attention as we are forming a base in trend. The next two levels in...
It is very clear from the monthly chart here that this has been an uptrend for some time now. The 2 year yields have started to see some widely anticipated profit taking just shy of the 2.618 extended target for the 3rd wave. The market has since retraced and held the 23.6% in a corrective 4th wave process. Time to start paying attention to yields again for 2019.
=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open. From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1)....
Before Brexit takes centre stage again tonight we have to make a quick stop for US inflation data. Here market expectations are for 2.1% unchanged, this time I agree with the consensus. Then at circa 4:00pm GMT PM May awaits a decision from EU leaders. A long extension is my base case (75%) but it is important to not rule out neither a short extension or a no...
Here on the monthly chart of Nasdaq we can see that its very likely we are in the final stages of a 5th wave since 2002. The pullback from September tested and held the 23.6% retrace of the entire 3rd wave. For those with a background in Elliot you will know this is meeting the criteria needed to qualify as a retracement (IVth) wave. If this is the 5th and final...
Here we can see that the Russell which was previously leading the pack is now lagging behind of late. It is important to keep one eye here as both NQ and S&P broke to new highs this was not the case in Russell. The support at 1,475 - 1.480 has not really been tested and the Index has held above. There is an ABC sequence target there as well as the 38.2%...
Here we can see the beginning of a large sequence to the downside in many cannabis stocks. I am going short across the board here as the sector looks very soft and recommending all to write upside volatility or simply short the common stock for infinity. From a technical perspective we are struggling at heavy resistance and beginning a new sequence to the...
Here we can see the cross has finally starting to turn and a change of trend is occurring after the lows in March. The market has formed a reliable trigger for ending the 5th wave in the sequence as we are breaking through the 38.2% fib. I am expecting this pair to continue significantly over time to trend higher, this can ultimately be the early stages of an...
Here we can see the market completing a textbook example of a 5 wave declining sequence. As mentioned in the previous USDSGD idea (see attached: "Tracking a zigzag leg in USDSGD") a typical retrace will often retrace 38.2% of the previous leg. In our case here this is all the way up at 6.788. Anything up till here should be viewed as corrective inside an...
After a textbook completion of a 5 wave sequence to the downside we are starting to trade an ABC sequence from the January lows. This pattern is corrective and the 'B' leg should be seen as counter trend. For those with a background in Elliotwave you will know a typical correction here will often retrace as high as 38.2.% of the previous leg which in this case...
It's time to start paying close attention to Oil as we approach 64.5. The market has reached its ABC target in the sequence since December. This is an important loading area to watch for signs of a possible top and reversal swing. Remember the breakdown towards the end of 2018 was impulsive in nature so any rally like the one we are currently witnessing should...
On the technical side support has held between 1.1177 - 1.1156 and now we are seeing speculators targeting the ABC sequence from March 20th. A retrace here can flow as high as 1.14555. For those tracking oscillators you will know they are all extremely stretched and this is becoming a sensible place to start tracking for a base formation. Remember that previous...
![EURUSD: Are you ready to swim with the current? [Part I]](https://s3.tradingview.com/e/eAJIzE6k_mid.png "Are you ready to swim with the current? [Part I]")
Ok guys...Welcome...I know the reason you are here... So this tutorial that I am releasing in stages over the coming days and weeks is going to be based on a series of questions I have been getting via PM ... the brief is open so keep them coming as this is going to be more or less an ask-me-anything 'AMA' format. There are a whole bunch of questions that I am...
Here we can see from a technical perspective that Bitcoin has tested and held the 200 MA. This recovery since has looked impulsive in nature and is adding confidence to the upside as we remain above 5115. The break of the ABC sequence shows that we are in the middle of an impulse wave and indicates the next levels in play to the top side are 6213. Any...
Here we are tracking Dollar sitting at key resistance between 97.5 - 97.7. This is an ABC target from a sequence that started in March. Bulls will need to get above 97.7 to confirm a break, till then I see scope for one final move to the downside. This is a counter trend trade so I would only recommend taking if you know exactly how to manoeuvre in this...
On the Brexit front we have political photoshoots taking place today with PM May meeting Chancellor Merkel and President Macron ahead of the summit. Brexiteers are becoming fatigued and can feel their hands being forced as we widely anticipated. The probability of passing the withdrawal agreement before 10th April is just 15% so kicking the can is very likely...
What are we trading? Adding short exposure here is recommended as EUR volatility fades into the distance via flight to quality (USD) flows. A strategic short in EURJPY outguessing no new announcements in April from ECB and a continuation of focus on further easing and details of the new TLTROs and whether we will see the 'tiered' system. The ECB will likely...
