Those who have been following the current USDCAD call (see attached: "Oil weighing heavy on CAD") will know we are already positioned in longs here. So what we are trying to do is add another position on a "sell the fact leg" in oil after cuts on the supply side are fully cooked in ... (so time to start working the sell-side again there.) The dollar is also...
Here we are getting very close to the moves and trading the initial breakup in this final 5th wave on the large timeframes (see attached: "Adding upside exposure on a correction" for more details on this count). Dollar strength is coming to our screens, time to position. Best of luck
After some positive news from Moody’s last Friday on Italy the headlines are starting to fade making this morning a great opportunity to start getting short EURUSD and EURJPY around current levels. The ECB introduced a risk premium on the EUR which is only going to increase as the EZ outlook softens. I like playing EUR against pockets of USD strength as we have...
Here we are once again looking at the 5th and final wave in the uptrend meaning it's time to add more exposure on dollar longs once more, we are in the beginning of an impulse wave. The support line will come into play on the technical side and we are set to mark the turning point and kick start flows till the end of summer. Let's track the charts closely, we...
As most of you already know the targets below remain in play. The ECB introduced a risk premium on the EUR which is only going to increase as the EZ outlook softens. I like playing EUR against pockets of USD strength as we have the possibility for renewed pricing on Fed hikes in the picture and JPY via fiscal year-end repatriation flows. Best of luck all shorts
It is time to start working the buy-side again in USDCHF. After the first leg (see attached: "Playing USDCHF with GDP") we are ending the retrace from profit taking and bulls are ready to start building positions once more. From the technical perspective we are trading a simple AB=CD sequence inside the larger wave (see attached: "Buying USDCHF aggressively at...
Here we are tracking a retrace in Crude after expected supply cuts are fully baked into the market. Bulls are going overboard here, forgetting that we have demand shocks coming with the global slowdown. The impulsive leg down last year was caused from the supply side, there is very little that can be done here to get back to these levels again. Good luck...
We have a very similar setup to that in GBPNZD (see attached: "Expanding Diagonal in GBPNZD" for more information on the technical side as we will not be covering that here). As expected the House of Commons rejecting the idea of a no-deal Brexit yesterday (although by default unless there are any changes we are heading for this outcome so it still remains in...
Here expecting dollar bulls to start showing up again for the European morning session. The long-end curves have been steepening further in Europe led by France pushing the 10s and 30s. Germany joined the party at a slower pace. The market also absorbed heavy supply yesterday from Italy ahead of the Moody's rating this Friday. We have some updates in the Brexit...
Round 2 is in play for the House of Commons tonight. The house are voting on whether it supports leaving the EU without a deal. Markets are overwhelmingly expecting this to be rejected, leaving the possibility of a Brexit extension (round 3) tomorrow the most likely scenario. Expecting a soft rally on the thought of no-deal being removed. A nice pipe-dream and...
A retest of the lows seems a done deal after bears are coming back in here, we have yen repatriation flows kickstarting with the NY session. Every March we see fiscal year end flows back to yen, it is a very seasonal flows. Good luck
We have some time ahead of "House of Commons: Chapter 2" later today so it is a perfect opportunity to start dissecting the moves in cable that have been traded live in Tradingview. Our first position on the sell-side came in at 1.329 (see attached idea "Selling cable with incoming dollar strength") as we were expecting the highs to be set as markets finished...
Fundamentally we have had a very fast leg down right on time for the Yen repatriation fiscal year end flows to begin. There is a lot more upside in the dollar move to come as investors are running to cash. Silver will naturally benefit from the risk-off nature of these flows, here we have a great buying opportunity for those wanting to invest in more coins....
Here we are tracking a large swing to the downside in oil. I would like to fade the highs here and target the range lows (see attached idea for those wanting to target 45 in the coming months). This idea is for the coming sessions as crazy as it sounds, we have some monster moves coming on the demand side. The ECB confirmed the slowdown is real and the FED are...
The latest rebound from the bottom of the channel has given a soft recovery. We are approaching key resistance areas and for those who are bearish on the USD you will need a constructive break above 1.13 to show anything meaningful in this recovery. I don't subscribe to the view that we have seen the highs in Dollar and expect these flows to continue well into...
Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB) is coming very soon, plus AIM Vectors with gene therapy entering into play. On the technical side we have reached the end of the line for the ABC sequence, from here a very natural flow will take place back towards the highs. Best of luck
After bouncing from the 200MA we are starting to run out of steam. Here I am expecting a return back towards the 49.89 and 41.20 lows over the coming weeks. The ECB confirmed the global slowdown is real, the risk approval has gone. We are set for lower prices via the demand side. On the technical side A break of the 200 & 50 MA's will open up the downside with...
This is the first time I have charted Nat Gas on Tradingview so we are starting with a blank canvas. We completed a large 5 wave sequence in the first quarter of 2016 and have since bounced in what has been a corrective ABC. This has clearly completed and we are looking at a very aggressive rejection. Support at 2.3 / 2.5 is approaching but the sustained...
