Here we can see the zoomed out macro map for the flows in usdjpy. If you are a believer in the bullish USD story and see this as an ABC corrective leg, after completing a multi decade 5 wave sequence. Timing wise we have the seasonality flows to Yen as we approach the end of the fiscal year. Although the name of the game is to park in dollar so these are...
Here we can see the 5th wave targets for this large sequence. From a birds eye view we have the potential to extend as high as 3.67 over the next few quarters. Recommend buying support here at current prices with targets at 3.49 up to 3.67. Best of luck
Here we have a very important flow forming after a soft ECB via revised forecasts for growth, inflation and TLTRO's. We have reached heavy resistance at 9,280 and a global slowdown will be enough to seriously damage the downside. From a technical perspective this would also satisfy the ABC from the 2015 highs. On the FX side, please find attached the flow for...
Here we are tracking the flow in EURUSD for jobs day. My models forecast 185k on the payrolls with a slight uptick in earnings to 3.3%y/y. The flight to dollar will continue, there is nowhere else to park. A weak number will inflate the problems in the global economy, a strong number will mean markets have to price in another move from the Fed via inflation....
By now you get the point, expecting dollar strength to enter into play over the coming sessions. Keeping it simple in a technical sense with stops above the highs and initial targets at the low of the range. There are extensions here as low as 1.09 (I will be posting a zoomed out daily chart on EURUSD) for the move so be prepared to close partial positions...
Here we are quickly tracking the flows for the news: We are tracking a few key things here today: (1) Removal of summer 2019 from forward guidance -> replaced with end of year (2) Growth and inflation forecasts revised lower (3) Confirmation on TLTRO’s to be announced with full details coming in April For those who are short EURUSD, there are no changes to...
Here we are sitting at the top of the channel after the huge miss in CAD data. This move will be from the Pound side, as Brexit becomes ever closer and thus the pain to the UK economy. The soft data in Canada is showing no signs of reversing however I am retaining the bullish CAD view as the underpricing of a hawkish BoC. Capacity constraints and labour market...
US tariffs on European cars are coming, retaliations will follow. Equities globally are starting to look very soft. For now we trade within this range, plenty of opportunities to the downside with targets at 2580. Best of luck.
After a very bearish end to the week for EURUSD I am updating the Daily chart with our latest targets at 1.0905. Timing wise we are positioned for ECB which is expected very dovish as Europe is struggling on many fronts... => EZ growth subdued in Q418 and expected to remain low for Q119; Italy already in technical recession whilst Germany touching cloth. =>...
A slight uptick in Euro PMI's is taking off some more of the pressure here and we are beginning to see a base forming. Those looking to pull the trigger on a simple break of the trendline which will unlock a return to the previous upper range and also a re-test of the highs at 0.91. Best of luck hope all are positioned appropriately for Brexit.
After the flash crash we have continued to trade within a wide range. An important and very significant point is the recent euro strength after a dovish ECB is corrective following the completion of a large bearish triangle pattern. Support can be found at 124 and then 123.40. Below here would imply another top is in and add weight to the view that risk is...
Here we have a very wide ABC in play with the C leg finishing at 7.25 - 7.28. From a technical perspective, the market has presented a flawless 5 wave impulsive move with a three wave retracement. Those who are betting on the upside will be coming in here at the 38.2% level at 5.09; and we can expect a continuation. There is scope here for as high as...
For today we have a very interesting move in BTCUSD. Here becoming increasingly cautious on risk assets. On the broader macro picture dovish CB pricing seems cooked, risk is ready to storm back into the room and a late-cycle economy means all roads lead to the same outcome... We can see bulls riding some profit taking from large bears who have been short, I...
Here we can see the end of a 5 wave pattern to the downside and the AB leg of the ABC correction complete. So what does this mean? Well we have still yet to put C in place, so simply we are targeting 35.75 for this corrective process. It's worth engaging in further topside exposure, especially if you are a believer of the bearish Yen story. Best of luck...
Risk premium is low once more in EM and we have long term targets spotted at 3650 here. => The rise since April is now clearly impulsive and the last and final levels in play now for this 5th wave is 3650. Pullbacks should only be bought, as mentioned in the previous idea (see attached) and now that we have our pullback..you know what to do. To put simply, a Q3...
Market is currently around a number of support levels ranging from 2.796% and 2.514% => This area is going to be very difficult to break because it also includes the uptrend which started from July 2016. Here it is worth pointing out that the market has seen the leg lower via the ABC count. Consildation has kicked in for a lengthy period of time and we are set...
A quick update on the count for those following the index. Nasdaq, S&P and Dow all starting to see some decent profit taking as we enter into resistance again. Here watching the Russell as there's a good chance the market has completed a 5 wave impulse move from the 16 lows. The correction if the above assumption is right, means that this ABC retracement may...
Those who have been following our commentary on Gold will have known 1180-1220 was our initial entry for longs when the position was anti-consensus. Once it started working we released the idea of longs towards 1345 and finally we are here after 14 weeks. Expecting a large retrace here as bulls unwind their positions and book profits, we have an opportunity to...
