A simple trade here from a technical sense as market has overpriced the odds of Brexit being good for the economy. We are selling the highs in Cable one more time. A departure from the EU is sending this currency one way, and one way only. On the USD side there is a lot of good news coming back in on the macro front and the FED will be questioned on hikes sooner...
There are a few opportunities which we have discussed privately on AUD and why it is a good time to be getting long on AUD crosses (namely AUDCAD or AUDJPY). Here I am nervous over USD strength as we begin pricing in a Q3 hike there so with Gold moving down in an impulse move (see attached ideas for more colour on that topic) the short here seems reasonable....
Here we are zooming in for those wanting to track the initial move in this large leg on a small time-frame. Those who follow the account here will know we recently uploaded a Daily chart on GBPJPY with shorts all the way to the bottom of the range. Here we are showcasing an initial impulse move down at resistance. For a more detailed breakdown on the macro and...
For this week we have a very interesting move with Oil being pulled down via demand shocks and incoming dollar strength via yields. A great time for a review of our previous chart (see related ideas) where bulls came in as expected and defended 1.312. Best of luck to those trading this pair...lets see how it goes!
=> Here we are updating our gold chart after a very bullish break of the consolidation range. => Those following our telegram have been tracking this break with us live and with a helping hand from risk-off via bond flows we managed to sweep 1190 -> 1220 in a matter of hours. => From a technical perspective the inverse head and shoulders pattern has completed and...
Here expecting EURUSD to break down from its four-month range to the downside over the coming hours. All of the Euro push up factors (growth expectations, improved politics etc) have all left the picture and now we are back to the same story before the rally towards 1.25. Europe, particularly on a risk adjusted basis has worsened. Poor growth and inflation are...
A very quick idea update here after a conversation with 'ikovachky' in the Forex chat room. We are approaching the end of the road with Brexit and timing wise it is finally time to get to work on selling the currency again. The Pound is only going one way with a Hard Brexit and if you are a believer in the bearish UK story, then you know exactly what to do here....
=> The heavy selling we have seen here as a result of the 'relief rally' in sterling after expectations of a second referendum entered the picture. This fairy tale is starting to exit the stage via the fire exit and we are heading back to reality. => This means that the odds of a no-deal Brexit outcome are going to once again take the spotlight and we are set for...
Very simple move here to the upside. I will be posting a zoomed out version of our chart as this is a quick and fast initial move within a much larger 5th wave to come. Please see related idea on USDCHF to understand the current flows taking place. Thanks and good luck.
Here we are looking at starting the 5th and final wave in the uptrend meaning it's time to get back to work on dollar longs once more, we have an impulse wave brewing. Let's track the charts closely, we have launched a smaller TF chart for those here who are trading the H1 initial part of this move. Best of luck
![XAUUSD: Signs of homemade inflation a few months away... [take 2]](https://s3.tradingview.com/a/aAapuB65_mid.png "Signs of homemade inflation a few months away... [take 2]")
For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. Initially we attempted shorting this before the market ran away without us. So in this...
Looking for a test of the lows in the very wide range as the global economy begins to slow we will start to see a shift inwards on the demand curve and price will need to correct. As a result of this, USDCAD is also particularly interesting but remains in neutral with BoC hikes still underpriced on the CAD side. Thanks for the support!
=> Here we have a very interesting playing field ... an unsurprising result with the political mess. => Today we are continuing to overlook the macro and focus on technicals as we have macro updates and expectations coming in our end of year reports. => So lets get started.... => As with the rest of USD pairs this has been corrective since October and anything...
For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. => Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade)...
=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, yet again we are at significant value areas for USDTRY longs. The 5th wave we mentioned in our previous idea can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for 7.80 are wide open. => From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 6.78 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in...
=> A new pattern has been forming for the past few months in Gold as widely tracked and expected for those following our conversations since the summer. => Since 1185 we have been building long exposure here and targeting the 1300 via risk and inflation. Today instead of digging into the macro details we are looking at this through a strictly technical lens. => So...
What is the plan here? Well riding the same BTC flows across alts, in particular XRP is vulnerable as risk storms back into the crypto room. There is plenty of room to the downside here after this massive overshoot. A soft rally, same play as before... heavily selling and expecting a break to fresh lows in XRP and other alts. Best of luck all
We have a few very important announcements coming during the European session today... Here we are starting to become more selective with AUD and NZD, both against JPY should see further downside as the rising-rate environment remains intact. => The RBNZ disappointed markets earlier in the week sending yields higher across the curve. NZD caught a bid for these...
