...we have a very interesting idea on the menu today for everyone. This is a very advanced environment and would recommend only those who are experienced to trade this swing position. => We are approaching steel resistance once more and it is time to get active on the sell-side in the UK. We have fresh headlines this morning from the political side attempting to...
Here we are remaining with our long bias, a view that has been with us since 2018. => Fundamentally, the SNB increasing in deposits suggests that the SNB have likely been keeping the EURCHF supported whilst volatility was on the move. President Jordan notably mentioned that the SNB is growing more concerned with market vol and the impact it is having on the...
Here we are actively in the market for further downside in AUDJPY after retesting 78.6. => From a fundamental perspective the outlook in Australia continues to weaken. Credit, housing and confidence are all slowing and a dovish RBA is the icing on the cake. => The "positive" headlines this morning from the US-China trade is increasingly priced in and we see...
USDCAD bears stepped in again at the 32.8% retracement of the fall from December implying that this is the first leg of a new flow to the downside. This implies that the time has come to start looking for value areas to book partial profits in this first wave down. Drawing a fib for the entire 2018 rally we can see 1.3127 (32.8%) is likely to offer some support....
After the flash crash we have started to form another minor top which is attracting selling interest. Yields are in play again (see related ideas) and we see scope for another leg lower. The December highs will cap any upside as large funds are sitting there. Expect a test of the 61.8% at .6905 will attract some buyers. We now know AUDUSD has traded briefly...
=> The fortress to the real economy has been battered, bruised and left with more than a fat lip. In this idea we are going to be digging deeper into the technical side of the chart so that we can begin to get in sync with algorithms and how they are reacting to Brexit. => The initial selloff from the vote in August formed a 5 wave correction which is underpinning...
=> Here we are expressing a bearish view for earnings season next week via shorting AUDJPY. => After Apple missing badly, rightfully we should be concerned for the week ahead. There are many ingredients now in the pot cooking for the economic slowdown and here we can isolate Australia as the domestic story remains bearish. => The technical side of this trade is...
![USDJPY: Risk [off] coming soon...](https://s3.tradingview.com/2/2JXaNInx_mid.png "Risk [off] coming soon...")
=> After completing the ABCDE triangle formation we widely expected with the flash crash we are almost ready to turn down once more. Markets have retraced almost 61.8% of the leg and here expecting 110 to cap any further upside. => This key resistance will attract selling interest and act as a barrier for any meaningful correction. => To the downside we can see...
=> Here we have a different view for French Equities as those who are following our telegram will already know. The case can be made that we are in a very large IVth wave of the V wave pattern since post 2008 crisis. => From a technical perspective this looks like a very large correction and should not continue its decline further than 38.2% (4525.x) => Anything...
What are we updating here? => After a dovish ECB we can see the removal of some large macro support at 1.133 which implies the prospect of a fresh leg lower. => After the sharp fall yesterday we managed to close below the November uptrend and Early January low to raise the odds of this consolidation range resolving lower. => Here we are actively looking for...
=> This is a very important chart update for those following Palladium => Here from an EW perspective the market is starting to near the extension target for the 5th wave ... we know in advance that this will trigger a lot of profit taking as bulls begin unwinding their positions after 3 years from the early 2016 lows. => It's time to stay alert and watch price...
=> After a very tough year for European Equities, the bad news keeps coming. End of QE with a very dovish ECB was expected to keep equities afloat, however, we can still extend the lows another -5% till 10,178 - 10,160. => Tracking this chart very closely into the FED and remainder of the year for any signs of a reversal once we clear the final targets. For those...
=> As you know we have been very successful shorting CHF across most crosses here (see related ideas) => With US yields breaking higher we see this as a strategic time to play the repatriation flow into Japan against Switzerland => For Japanese investors moving capital into the US we are starting to see an increasing amount of these positions remain unhedged...
=> The ABCDE triangle has been in play since we bounced in 2015 and has now broken. => Remember these are levels that have been tested multiple times over the last 3 years and the break should therefore be viewed as imperative. => From a technical perspective the market has support at 1.048-1.047 and although this may trigger a period of consolidation as the...
=> Here we are tracking risk-off for the US mid term elections and using CADJPY as a strategic hedge. => This is because of Canada primarily funding its deficit through portfolio inflows and with tightening liquidity conditions we see less investment into Canada for the foreseeable future. => Later this month we have a BoC hike priced in as well as another 2...
=> Here is the triangle we mentioned in our previous idea => A timely update as we approach the end of the 'D' part in the ABCDE pattern formation from a technical perspective. => On the macro side we are starting to see the DXY correct too and all stars are beginning to align for the next leg down. => Keeping a close eye on this one for now. => GL
=> The overhead resistance on the S&P 500 is very clear. If we break above we expect a move towards the channel top around the 3,060. => However, it was a screaming early alert signal for bulls not taking the all time highs last week and we are advising all clients caution in the weeks ahead here. => A close below 2,791 - 2802 would open up for a test of major...
=> Japan is in a party of its own with inflation flopping for the millionth time again this year. This was not enough to keep equities afloat and here the risk of returning to 19,222 is significant. => Tracking 21,240 - 20,975 like a hawk. Breaking below these levels will imply that we are continuing the downtrend since September. => Taking these lows will open up...
