=> Here we are trading a very simple flow => The rationale is to ride some profit taking from those who have been short all year long. As most of you already know we have been short for the most part of 2018, and as liquidity begins to fade for Christmas positions are being unwound. => The targets here are very simple, we are tracking the previous breakdowns for...
=> After many requests from our followers in India we are posting an update to the USDINR map. => Here from a technical perspective we can see that there is a case to be made for the '5th wave' already being put in place... although we didn't quite reach the target for the minimum flow it came close enough. => This means the next big support level below is 68.86...
=> What is in play here? => To put it simply we are tracking two scenarios... the market is currently trading against strong resistance and we need to get above this area to avoid it becoming a very large triangle. => If we look at the recovery since August, we can see that this move has been impulsive and increases the odds for the break to the topside. => The...
=> Welcome to our long term map for AUDUSD .. in this idea we are strictly looking at this from an Elliot wave perspective. => The sequence that started back in 2011 has yet to complete the 5th and final wave. => So we started to dig deeper into the 4th wave that began in 2016 and formed a very traditional ABCD correction which targeted and reached the 0.81668. =>...
=> As is the case in EURUSD any pullback from here will be viewed in our books as corrective. The bounce from Feb has looked very impulsive and is underpinning this current uptrend. => Any retrace should be capped at 0.9789 and as such waiting for support levels here seems prudent at 0.9905 and 0.9835. => It will take a break of the 76.4% to open up the highs and...
=> Here are once more tracking the 5th wave in the USDTRY. The market has been corrective since August and now it is looking like we have completed the ABC which targeted 5.30. => This level was marginally pierced but it never saw any break with momentum which is screaming early alerts for those expecting the bleeding to continue for Turkey to start sticking the...
=> A few important updates here for Crude as we enter the final weeks of the year. For those who have been following us on Telegram and Tradingview you will know we managed to catch the move from 70 to 50. => This move was telegraphed in advance earlier in the year as politics began to take the driving seat behind the commodity as well as the OPEC cartel clashing...
=> From a technical perspective EURUSD looks ready to resume the impulsive downtrend since Jan. => The move is difficult to chase at this stage as the stage is set for a very short term squeeze towards the 1.180 range highs to clear the board of any late shorts. => That being said, any squeeze in the immediate short term should be viewed within this broader...
=> As promised here is part 2 of our dollar series. The longer term chart shows clearly the move(s) we are tracking and expecting. => The move towards 102 is still corrective and within the bigger picture this is a large B wave of an ABC since the cycle highs in Jan 2017. => In theory we can expect another 5 wave decent to match the logic of the previous 5 wave...
=> This chart is part 1 of a two part series we are running on DXY. Here we can see in the Longer term chart the idea behind the move we are tracking.... a deep pullback towards 94 before continuing the rally back towards 102. => As most of you know we have mentioned this move a few times in the telegram. The move from August into the year end was corrective and...
=> Some key updates here on the EURUSD front since the ECB this week. => For those following our ideas, you will know we were expecting a dovish ECB which came inline. The way we chose to play this was a buy rumour sell fact with a short squeeze. => This was an attempt of outsmarting those reacting late to the end of QE. This has not played as we expected and...
=> Firstly, well done to all those who managed to make their slice of the pie on our previous Oil trade. A monster move with our stops holding by crumbs before an almost -40% move to the downside. => See attached for those wanting to read in detail the macro and fundamental rationale behind the move. => For this latest idea here we are tracking two things; either...
=> Here we have a clearly defined wide range in US Equities => The two large forces of the FED and Whitehouse clashing here. Whilst the Doves are coming out of the floorboards louder than ever the macro numbers are not turning (yet). => This means for those advanced traders out there we have some opportunity for value areas at the bottom of this wide range. => US...
=> Here we can see the downtrend has broken its year-long consolidation. => For those in Elliot wave this appears to be an ABC correction since December last year. => Eyeballing the lows of $3,000 for support, in particular I like $3,100. This ABC can extend as low as $2,294 - $2,300. => To put it simply, there is no point in trying to catch a knife here as the...
=> We haven't see the traditional ABC process and markets stopped short of the 'C' targets last week. => This is screaming early alerts that the market could not complete the leg in the abc and is very difficult for retailers to trade because of the wide range. => In terms of technical levels to track, the support at 1.288 (61.8% retrace). If this is a triangle...
=> Here is the longer term picture for Dollar and it is clear that we are in a bullish trend.... => Ideally we will add back into this on a test of support at 94-93.5 although should we see the break above 97.23 then it will show evidence that USD strength has not gone anywhere and this leg is happening sooner than initially expected. => Just to point out as a...
=> Here we can see the DXY resting at resistance whilst starting a corrective process in August => So far we can see from a wave perspective what looks like an A and B leg of an incomplete ABC which can retrace as far as 93.42 => The risk to our thesis is that a break above here will put the question on the table as to whether we have already resumed the...
=> The recovery here on the lower timeframe looks corrective and counter-trend by nature. => Rates will keep equities under pressure and in terms of levels to track from the ABC sense will target 2859 as the 76.4% retrace. => This will be an important level to track as we can start to see signs of momentum for risk appetite fading away and will indicate that the...
