=> here we are tracking the highs from a wave perspective and there is a very high chance we are witnessing the market completing a 5 wave impulse move from 2016 via tax cuts. => The sell-off last month looks very much like the start of the ABC correction and sharp money saw and traded the 'A' part of the leg. => Here we see the market remaining under pressure via...
=> Here we expect the 115 handle to hold and a timely place for our previous longs to take profits off the table. => Well done all those who caught the buy side on this leg from USDJPY idea. Given how many levels are converged in this one area we expect it to hold. => The 115 area also encompasses the possible triangle pattern from 2016 (see our next USDJPY weekly...
=> Here is an update to our daily chart on EURUSD => For those who have been following our telegram update we managed to catch the leg towards 1.130 before clearing all positions. Here tracking this break closely for a bounce at 1.1181 to kickstart the 'C' part of the ABC move. => We have important data on the wires from both the EZ and US this week, expecting a...
=> As expected EURUSD has been under severe pressure and it is possible that we are ready to complete the C leg of an ABC from August. => If this technical perspective is correct we can reach as high as 1.18 whilst still remaining on path towards 1.05xx. => Here looking to sell either a break of the current lows (if confirmed with a weekly close below) or buy the...
=> Here we are tracking a break to the upside in USDCOP with a target of 3223 => This flow is trading the recent underperformance in Columbia and playing it against USD strength via inflation and bond to equity flows. => This should be a quick and sharp move with low political risk in Columbia and upside in Oil prices being capped for now.(edited) => If risk rises...
=> This week we have BoC on deck with a widely anticipated rate hike. The sales and consumer prints last week came in softer than anticipated and we see this as a great valuation driven pullback. => Here we are targeting the recent highs with stops at the lows. From a technical point of view we can see the early longs had their stops run on the data pullback. =>...
=> Here we are tracking the Riksbank meeting on Wednesday with hikes expected to come in either December or February. => We expect December to remain on the cards and continue supporting a bullish SEK tone. => On the Swiss side, as you all know from our previous ideas Swiss investors positions in foreign assets remain largely FX hedged so there is little concern...
=> Here we have a rather complex call as we are outguessing the top of a 2 year bull run in Oil => This is a high risk environment and only recommended for those that know exactly what you are doing.(edited) => Both supply and demand factors are crashing in the short term creating a very difficult environment to navigate through. => In the background, EV continues...
=> Here we are tracking profit taking for shorts after an AB = CD leg in EURTRY => Nothing has changed on the macro side in Turkey and we have positive Euro flows starting to enter back into the picture as we start thinking about the unwinding of QE. => Our target at 7.34158 is the last daily R before we finished breaking down on this 'CD' leg whilst our stops...
=> We have an update to our S&P chart (see attached for our previous idea on the weekly) => This selloff was telegraphed miles in advance in our telegram group because of the correction in yields due to inflation and rates. => The caveat which underpins the rush to the doors is politics with the US mid-terms around the corner we are dangerously close to trigger...
=> FED minutes today will likely push USD higher on the knee jerk however devaluation against the CNH is likely. => Here with a helping hand from a strong earnings season we are set for a risk correction. => A sell into strength strategy remains warranted for CNH as the bear flattening of the US yield curve does not bode well for leverage. => Good luck to all of...
=> Here we are entering back into earnings season and US companies are expected to come in strong. Risk appetite is starting to enter back into the picture and because of this we see the current dip in USDJPY as a valuation driven dip. => This rebound from the bottom of a year long channel should be an easy ride towards 114.73 => USD will regain strength against...
=> Here we have an update to our BTC chart after yesterday's spike from Saudi bypassing sanctions via BTC flows. => From the technical perspective yesterday bulls failed to hold above 7000.xx and we are set for further continuation of our current downtrend. Here we are tracking a 5th and final wave of this current retracement leg with our initial targets starting...
=> Here we are looking at AUDNZD to pickup at the lower end of our current channel. => The aim here is to trade a break back towards our fair value which is close to 1.10 => Australia hasn't shown any signs of trade war damage although yields are going to start weighing heavy rather soon and for those reasons would not recommend trading AUDUSD to the buy...
=> Market turmoil is creating its own negative feedback loops for China driving further tightening financial conditions that will last and have further effects on the economic growth in the region. => It seems unlikely to open the floodgates to a recession so far however further trade tensions between the US and China will add to fragility. => Targets in Chinese...
=> Here we are approaching oversold levels and smart money will be looking for bargains as we go into year end. => Key resistance near 22000 is approaching and as Quants unwind after spike in rates we have strong divergence between factor value and factor earnings growth. => We do not see a large panic move in play here at the moment. neither in cash or options....
=> What are we tracking here? => This is a very complex environment with major risk off flows from large funds in play last week. => Bears are refusing to capitulate and give the highs defending with everything they have meaning we can use the highs at 6.9586 as a line in the sand for triggering further risk-off flows, especially in the broader EM space. => On the...
=> Here we are seeing global yields breaking higher as widely expected for those following our tradingview ideas and telegram channel => Australia's trade surplus helps as a buffer against the yield disadvantage but it is only moderating the AUDUSD decline... the disadvantage is not changing any time soon and we are set for yields to continue breaking higher. =>...
