ridethepig

ridethepig Updated 

=> Well done to all of those who are followed our latest idea in EURUSD from FED (see related ideas) => An important update on the technical front as we approach the bottom of our range taking profits and switching sides for a temporary pullback towards 1.172. On the macro front there are no changes as we are still in a similar environment to last week, the flow...

ridethepig Updated 

Firstly, well done to all of those tracking the FED flow into USD... I know a few in the telegram who made their slice of the pie on this one. Firing a bullet here in USDCAD in what is a very technical environment as markets continue to digest the December hikes. => It's going to be a quick and sharp leg to the upside with a quick test of the previous 50 fib...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Here we are positioning to the buy side and fading the recent strength from ZAR. => For all of those following our portfolio on Tradingview you will have noticed us tracking a rebound across some parts of the EM spectrum, South Africa is not one. => Timing wise... CPI data on Wednesday will come in slightly lower than expected but still remaining way above...

ridethepig Updated 

=> As mentioned previously we are not expecting anything but dovish commentary from the SNB later this week.... vol is cheap and we see USDCHF trading back to the previous break down levels. => The higher US rates = higher USD narrative is starting to fade so this remains only a short-term play before the hikes later this month. The stage is being set for a...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Here we expect the underperformance in the Euro to be around the corner and after a dovish SNB last week this is an 'easier' cross to trade than the EURUSD because of rate differentials. => Technically this is a very simple call we are trading back to our last break down levels at the 1.165x => We are outguessing profit taking from exhausted bears ahead of FED...

ridethepig Updated 

We closed our latest EURUSD buy idea after failing to clear final targets before the end of today, well done to all those on the buy side who made a few... => Here we are now starting to position for the FED hikes tomorrow; As per today's odds (94.4%) markets are trading a done deal tomorrow . The US is structurally very strong with factors like lower tax...

ridethepig Updated 

=> A rather talkative ECB today kept Euro in bid with the end of QE being the main focus. => Here we are expecting a break to the upside of the recent base formation with a test of the 1.185x giving bulls a lot more confidence going into 2019. => For those into Elliot-wave we have started a recovery after the fifth wave with out initial target at the highs in wave...

ridethepig Updated 

=> The recent chest beating from the US forcing Mexico into a "new" NAFTA caused some temporary optimism. However, we see nothing new and mostly the lack of options within EM has been priced in with regards to risks and mid term investment narratives. => Combined with our broad view of EM weakness across the board we see capital flight to safety as a sensible and...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Markets are still awaiting more details on NAFTA from the Canada front whilst the knife is already being stuck into the bent knee of Mexico. => Here we have a minor update to our chart with the lows still managing to hold for now there is nothing to see or do here... => Expecting USD to catch a strong bid as the Peso continues to weaken in the weeks ahead. Any...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Here we are tracking for a short-term high to be set, whilst bulls remain above resistance at 39.35 the yearly highs are open for a test. => Here we can either trade crumbs to the highs or look for opportunities at 41.50x as we begin to set a secular high. => Whilst we don't see EM out of the woods yet, we are expecting some recovery into 2019. => A very...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Here we are tracking exhausted bulls running out of steam and eyeballing a break to fresh yearly lows. => Irrelevant ETF denials provided the ebb and flow for August however we are now back to a "normal" environment => Expecting bears to pull the handbrake here with stops above the previous highs this is a very technical trade targeting the fib extensions =>...

ridethepig Updated 

=> The most recent rally failed to test the highs and implies that we are set for some period of corrective activity. => Bulls are taking profits as the momentum runs out of steam and this will provide the catalyst for the break of 5.9744. A close below here would then unlock the 38.2 fib levels next. => Similarly to our USDRUB and USDINR ideas, EM currencies are...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Very similar to the USDINR idea we posted, there is significant bearish divergence and the downside is unlocked for some testing. => Here we are playing into the 66.0988 and 65.0446 levels before anything else. => This is a corrective play across EM currencies, nothing more, nothing less.

ridethepig Updated 

=> In this particular example we are outguessing a break of a channel and confirming further wide chop with the cross. => This week is busy from a monetary policy perspective and with both the Norges Bank and SNB in play we decided to use the CHFNOK as the main course... => Thursday is the rainmaker here; whilst the SNB are likely to portray a dovish tone...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Brexit "negotiations" taking centre stage again (if you can call them negotiations) ...a circus from tiny England. => Europe starting to see some positive flows via fundamental factors for the remainder of 2018 enter into the picture. For those following we have widely expected this since the beginning of summer. => Bulls taking soft profits on the recent break...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Here we are shorting the dollar against SEK as we see a fresh leg down in the dollar for September flows. => Markets have gone overboard on risk premium and we are looking to get advantage of the Swedish elections coming up in two weeks. => Fundamentals are improving in both Sweden and Europe and a rising Euro will help move SEK as collateral here. => GL (Entry...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Here we are arguing from the angle that the bearish sentiment on EURO as mentioned in our previous ideas will fade and begin to position into a solid macro narrative. => Qatar has announced an FX swap agreement with Turkey for $15bn this morning, frankly they might as well wave goodbye to this money with Erdogan at the helm. Short-term however this will provide...

ridethepig Updated 

=> Whilst we are expecting EUR strength to pick up from a macro perspective in the coming quarters as the dollar story unwinds we are still expecting tumultuous weeks ahead across the board. => As a result of this YEN may get bid so EURJPY needs watching closely. => If the EUR remains soft then a breach of the support between 123.x - 124.x will unlock the downside...