=> Here it becomes perfectly acceptable to use CNH as a barometer across the EM currencies... the correction we are eyeballing across the EM spectrum is largely being dictated via China and tariffs. => Linkages between our most recent ideas from USDARS, USDTRY, USDINR and USDRUB cover the broader EM moves as the case for a bearish correction becomes strong. As...
=> Studies are starting to show we are extremely overbought here in USDINR and a mean reversion play looks imminent... => The daily close below 71.38 will confirm this and unlock both the 70.395 and 69.530 before there is anything else to the buy side. => Similarly to the USD/RUB and USD/TRY we are starting to see temporary short-term highs across most of the EM...
=> Here we are tracking 111.7x very closely... this marks the 61.8 retracement from last years highs. => This recovery should further be capped by the 112.1x highs as we have plenty of unwinding to do there... positioning from a macro perspective will start changing after today with Sept hikes already confirmed as a done deal there is not much room left in the...
=> As widely expected since earlier in the week CHF catching a bid from the safe have flows. => Draghi et al confirming today that "risk-off" is around the corner and those sharp enough have been positioning already... here we are almost ready to start clearing our positions. => For those still tracking the cross the double top will now cap any meaningful upside...
=> For those who were looking at the MT weekly chart here is the range we are currently trading. => Solid resistance at 16.00xx with support at 14.70xx ...the bias towards the upside continues even after the profit taking we have seen the past few days. => We can't rule out chopping in our range for some days ahead before taking the 16.00xx handle...
=> Confirming a break of the channel earlier in the quarter we are seeing the knife really being stuck in here. A test of the highs seems only a matter of when, rather than if. => Our previous ZARJPY trade (see related ideas) was a flawless 7% move via the combo of S.Africa slipping into technical recession and the loss of investor confidence via...
=> Here we are actively adding to our CHF exposure as we are expecting risk to enter back into the picture any day now... => The move towards the 50% retracement has yet to complete and we see this bearish momentum to threaten a break below. => The upside is capped with iron resistance at 0.985x => Here we recommend shorts with targets at 0.9627x , entries at...
=> The recent downside has unlocked the key support at 1.27xx at the 50% retracement of the current rally. => Below 1.3025 means we will see a test at the more meaningful support zone - the August low => To the upside we don't see much opportunity here as resistance at 1.3110 caps the move immediately. => Trump has given the narrative of NAFA talks "going well"...
=> Again another technical setup here as we await the dollar to be sold for the remainder of the year... => We have lost the support at 0.6547 which was the 76.4% retracement level from the rally that lasted from 2015 - 2017 => This tells us that there will be some soft profit taking here from those who have been short for some months prior... => The downtrend is...
=> AUDUSD (Weekly TF) => AUDUSD has been under severe pressure following the loss of the May 2016 lows => We expect the pair to find some short term footing via soft profit taking in the weeks ahead, with resistance at 0.7127 and 0.7170. => Although we like a bounce here at these levels, there is still plenty of room underneath towards the 0.6827 lows from...
=> The cross remains under pressure via sterling receiving a bid from positive Brexit headlines => We have broken down from our previous channel and are now finding support at the 0.8896 levels. => Whilst we still see this moving higher into 2019 we need to hold the attempt from bears here. A clean break will see a decline towards 0.8861 which also marks the 50%...
=> The USDJPY has remained in bid after holding this uptrend since the first quarter => Here we are expecting a move back into the 61.8% retracement towards 111.7x => Anything above the 111.83 levels would unlock the highs of 2016/18 => Dollar hikes in September will be the mover and shaker here and set the tone for the remainder of the year => Best of luck to all...
=> After failing to break above the 1.165 key resistance we are set for more choppy waters => This has to break one way or the other and our bias is to the upside. Here we are expecting the hikes coming later in September to be the catalyst if not before... => Again this is a technical environment and we are waiting patiently for a break before building our...
=> This is a very technical environment as Brexit focus has been shifted towards the end of October/November => Here we can see the break in price above the 38.2% and bullish triangle... this implies a swift and clean leg towards the 50% target at 2.08939 => The ebb and flow will be provided from noise on both sides of the Brexit equation starting to sell the...
=> We are continuing to position to the sell side in the Lira against the dollar ahead of the interest rate decision on Thursday. => The Turkish central bank will take action as widely expected by markets after inflation continued to tick higher out of control. => In the interim we see a very short term opportunity here with our targets at 6.58 and our stops at...
=> After Sunday's election resulting in political deadlock we are set for another circus of government building. => Here we are expecting politics to open up an extended period of narrative for SEK where the path to normalisation (hikes expected to begin in December) will take centre stage. => With the focus shifting towards Riksbank and the economic expectations...
=> Our thesis of the multi month consolidation in the 10 year offering buying opportunities has been confirmed via the recent crisis in Turkey and the associated plunge in commodity prices. => There is no one size fits all framework here yet as yields have been all over the place since we confirmed 3% for the headlines. This is really just the tip of the iceberg,...
=> EM is back under pressure on the on the headlines and South Africa are one more time shooting themselves by proceeding the bill passing expropriation of land. => When a country does this, your currency is going one way. Land reform is going to keep ZAR vulnerable in an already challenging EM climate. => JPY will receive the safe haven flows via risk sentiment => GL
