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NAFTA remains on the Agenda
CADJPY
, 1D
Short
CADJPY: NAFTA remains on the Agenda

=> CAD received the bid towards the end of last week on the back of falling political uncertainty as Canadian and US officials came 'closer' to reaching a trade deal. => Here the US is bullying once more on the foreign policy side and Canada are being forced to agree. => The BOC on deck this week will keep rates unchanged as widely expected by markets and will be...

SEK advancing remains on the agenda
NOKSEK
, 1D
Short
NOKSEK: SEK advancing remains on the agenda

=> For those following our USDSEK idea you will know we believe the negative SEK flow is something that has run its course. => Oil is starting to look very heavy at the highs, the boat is fully loaded with almost 90% are now bullish. In the oven we have more advancements coming on the electric side which will likely show a clear inflexion point for the end of oil...

We'll have the JPY sandwich please
RUBJPY
, 1D
Short
RUBJPY: We'll have the JPY sandwich please

=> Russia remains under pressure here after suspending FX purchases through to the end of September => The circus from the Whitehouse will be back from recess shortly and will likely impose further sanctions against Russia, this will increase appetite for flows outside of RUB and similarly to the logic in ZARJPY we are using JPY as a beneficiary of these risk...

Sticking the knife in for real pain
USDMYR
, 1D
Long
USDMYR: Sticking the knife in for real pain

=> Dark clouds continue to rest over EM, we are eyeballing a 4% move here against Malaysia. => Almost 90% of short term debt in Malaysia is covered by FX reserves whilst two thirds come in the form of short term borrowing. => If the banking system continues to feel pressure via uncertainty from Chinese officials then we are going to see some real pain here. => The...

Pressure metals continue to struggle
XAUUSD
, 1W
Short
XAUUSD: Pressure metals continue to struggle

=> Here we can clearly see the double top gold posted after major resistance from July 2016 managed to hold. => The rising channel has given way and we are seeing continual closes below the 100 week MA => The target for bears here are clearly the 2017 lows $1,120 - 1,125 => The scary part here for those in EUR positions this move would imply EURUSD back at the...

Pound continues to struggle... crunching time for bulls
EURGBP
, 1D
Long
EURGBP: Pound continues to struggle... crunching time for bulls

=> We have a very advanced call this time as both Euro and Pound have been under pressure via rate differentials this summer => With euro under attack via concerns over banks' exposure to Turkey. However, we see these headlines as an exaggeration as most banks in Spain have significantly lower contagion risks than reported. => Here we are expecting euro to enter...

USDCNH setting up for a correction
USDCNH
, 1D
Short
USDCNH: USDCNH setting up for a correction

=> We are expecting profit taking in the pair over the coming sessions. the PBOC are beginning to support a narrative providing some short-term strength into the Yuan after months of preparing for the trade war with US. => This is a very complex environment so its time to stay out if you don't know what you are doing. => A Daily close below the 6.8676 is the only...

Whys go alone? Sterling and AUD share the pain
AUDUSD
, 1D
Short
AUDUSD: Whys go alone? Sterling and AUD share the pain

=> Gold and other Chinese assets have a strong correlation with the Dollar strength story - these are weighing heavy especially on AUD as a commodity currency. => Here we are expecting the December 2016 lows at 0.7160 to be tested with the base of the channel around the corner @ 0.7098 => The RBA continues to appear more confident although Governor Lower has...

Brexit clouds starting to rain
GBPUSD
, 1D
Short
GBPUSD: Brexit clouds starting to rain

=> Underlying inflationary pressures remain subdued in the UK => Here we are examining the break of the downward channel with no cushion on the monetary side to offer any lumber support before the UK leaves the European Union. => 1.2771 remains the line in the sand, we actively continuing to sell into any rallies here a no deal Brexit will hammer GBPUSD towards...

Tracking the Greenback closely
DXY
, 1D
Long
DXY: Tracking the Greenback closely

=> We are starting to tread water in the golden ratio zone in the DXY after the recent breakout of the summer range => While we are now ticking in overbought territory we see a pullback as a buying opportunity based on recent bullish breakouts. => The knife in the wound in Turkey has allowed the Dollar to reconvert with interest rate spreads and correct...

The Armoured Train
AAPL
, 1D
Short
AAPL: The Armoured Train

=> AAPL (Daily TF) => With the economy starting to trip we are going to begin seeing unwinding of $AAPL portfolios. => Here we are watching the daily close carefully and starting to build positions towards the 130 handle => A complex call this time as we are outguessing the top of a cycle, patience and strong nerve required as you are betting against the biggest...

Smoke and Mirrors
BTCUSD
, 1D
Short
BTCUSD: Smoke and Mirrors
Updated 

=>BTC coughing one more time at the highs here and marking the end of the recent rally . => Here we are actively building positions to the sell side as we expect price to retest the previous breakout level. => A very simple flow as fundamentally BTC is coming under pressure from all fronts and struggling to find any good news to support the pull factors. =>...

Short Term Floor in Cable
GBPUSD
, 1W
Short
GBPUSD: Short Term Floor in Cable

=> As widely expected BOE raised interest rates last week => Here we are expecting Pound to find short-term support from the monetary side for August => Technically we are trading at the bottom of the range with the Hard Brexit train approaching the station. We will see a pullback here into September as FED rate hoke Sept are priced into the Dollar side giving...

The Eve of Risk
XAUUSD
, 1D
Long
XAUUSD: The Eve of Risk

Our Second Idea on Tradingview => Here we are smelling risk off in the coming sessions. =>From a technical perspective we are eyeballing a move back towards the 61.8% from the bottom of the channel we have been trading since April. =>Expecting investors to raise the bid on risk off assets as we have the triple CB combo this week with BOJ, FED and BOE in play....

Playing with Smart Money
EURUSD
, 1D
Long
EURUSD: Playing with Smart Money

We are kicking of our first idea on Tradingview... => Here we are tracking the upside in Euro via odds of a 2019 interest rate hike increasing. => We have a wide 1000 tick range in play (1.16 - 1.26) with ECB offering support at the 1.16 handle. => Ceteris Paribus there is little to see to the downside here with EZ inflation prints this week likely to confirm...

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