📌 @ridethepig Gold Market Commentary 16.12.2020 The moves in Gold have been excellent to track this year because of the tendency to put turning points around the Central Banks. This of course seems very appropriate. The 'infamous' loading zone has allowed us to pick the low hanging fruit, now things are going to start getting a bit trickier from a positioning...
@ridethepig | G10 FX Christmas Chartbook 📌 USD - devaluation continuation is the name of the game ...the breakdown is cooking; Biden has turned dollar into an awful shelter. Look for cover elsewhere, a 'digital dollar' could also be a beautiful political manoeuvre in which we may see the transfer of whole equipment from West to East. Needless to say, the...
📌 CHF for the Yearly Close An excellent swing move, which is extraordinarily difficult to spot. You should note that what has played out has been completely carefully controlled and exclusively on the FED side. Whereas SNB have been seeking salvation against the inflows, the USD cycle is playing out by default and monetary error more than anything else. You...
📌 Turkish Lira for the Yearly Close The strong points of the rally which we went into more detail was an absolute momentum move; the flow was a force to be reckoned with and undermined all sides of the Turkish banking system, collapsing like a house of cards. After 2019 the helplessness of Turkey's Erdogan was quite something. My dear readers, populists...
📌 CNY for the Yearly Close... In the usual tradition, this topping formation appeared to fit the bill! The correct way to play it was for sellers to proceed; dollar weakness was knocking while CNY was quite tenable. It is now obvious that the above mentioned development has been less time consuming that the initial legs higher: This means the...
📌 KRW for the Yearly Close This brings into an important consideration for review the long-term KRW chart, the plan chosen by sellers has been able to lure in late unaware buyers at the highs because of the simple nature of the impulse employed. By trapping the highs and aiming for the negative break in the yearly close, it is a very bearish sign. Moves...
A timely update here after a conversation with @zhaoyu01...I will try to keep this one short as by now we all know what is in play. On the inflation front it is clear what we have cooking. Sharp speculators in bonds are miles ahead as usual and signalling loudly that we have inflation coming to our theatres very soon: One of the best assets in 2019/2020 has...
📌 SEK for the Yearly Close In general the following flows are working flawlessly, sellers have recaptured the control and are bringing about a lot of pressure on the main macro targets issued at the beginning of 2020. One indication of the weakness is clearly the USD devaluation, and is represented by the attacking side rushing to SEK. Introducing...
📌 AUD for the Yearly Close It seems a good choice of the moment to also progress with the Commodity Currencies next, the characteristic of the next macro themes are going to be coming from shortages on supply side and we can dissect how to configure that into currencies and in accordance with the previous diagrams. AUD has freed some space above for the...
📌 Dollar for the Yearly Close Now comes the dollar complex which we have covered several times - the artificial devaluation which we were tracking in 2019 has arisen: Dollar bears now have a good position, because it is looking highly unlikely that Trump can pull this off now and manage to force a stop to the artificial devaluation. This somewhat...
📌 EURUSD - Yearly Buyers how hold a solid position, since the previous two outside candles over the past 30 years were essentially sellers biting into granite (the protected support). The solidity of an outside candle which show in itself the fact that 'eurobonds' are a game changer and troubled sellers cannot open the lows. Eurobonds Positional Play The...
📍 This chart demonstrates how sellers are now stepping in to defend the previous support which becomes resistance and how those buyers stepping against the current should be punished. The lust for continuation down is greater than many expect at first glance. With the retreat already underway, sellers are threatening for another -10% leg lower towards...
Another interesting play where buyers can win the flow. So, the idea to outguess a temporary floor in USDCHF is correct as we are approach very 'rich' levels for sellers. If buyers are going to have a late breakfast 0.890x is the level to load. Another few pips down and it would be difficult to defend because of the horizontal support. For those that remember...
📌 Buyers attacking and maintaining the pressure! Since the initial weakness we spotted at the lows, we have seen the birth of an impulsive leg higher: Of course this is very promising, buyers have much rather played the breakup and we got our momentum gambit! Well, for those wondering what rendered the base as valid, I would point you in the direction of...
📍 Natural Gas The proud floor - such is the name sometimes given to support - is a useful weapon in the hand of buyers. And yet for a time, I toyed with the idea - a seasonality one, I must admit. We cannot simply dismiss the deep examination; namely the elements and the strategies involved in trapping our opponent. For example, the fake breakdown and slingshot...
📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Commentary GBPUSD This linkage between the retracement and the impulsive wave is classical, believed only in absolute directional moves; ....sellers of UK assets are a forced to be reckoned with and such a move in 80 cases out of 100 will be considered worth playing. I am dropping the figure from 1.350x to 1.345x because I expect...
📌 The "formation" of the strong resistance Here we are going to track a live example of BTC putting in a major high which will probably last into Q1 2022. My models are taking note of the outflows which are far from easy to spot: in the endgame of a swing, it takes A LOT of energy to crack resistance, the whole business involves activity. Think of the set-up...
NFP is threatening the breakdown in EURUSD and across G10 pairs. The flows, with centralisation focused on the dollar follow profit taking and an early advance. This can be exploited and is easy to understand what is in play (as with NZDUSD). We have our shelter at 1.215x which is our ceiling, the next step is to look for areas of value to the downside. In...
