An important chart update here as we approach the main targets in the leg higher. For those who have been following the live flows we forecasted earlier in the year; we have the choice of retreating and taking profits and avoiding loss of time. The question of momentum must be in some ways critical. The following diagrams show a breakdown of the previous...
This point of view, relying on the soundness of the highs, which has been proved, will be vital to our success, because it is what we are leaning on and it is giving us a chance to pull the trigger in a somewhat cheap area in terms of risk. But the risk is as follows: if the only way to achieve liquidation is a sweep above mentioned highs, the possibility...
...Another single stock opportunity that is worth building a bridge over; $ABUS (Arbutus Biopharma) an excellent and cheap shelter for the next chapter in covid flows. The beauty of choice! It is interesting as all covid vaccines will have to RNA IP .. this is a convincing driver. As well as creating a shelter, use the intimately linked highs to add and...
A difficult call here after clearing OPEC manoeuvre. Of course the supply sacrifice was possible, but the shallow support is now completely cooked in the price. For those tracking the full OPEC moves: Of course buyers won the highs and we made some decent gains from the latest taking of the latent 46 highs. But as this price action is showing, we have...
This chart update comes after the conversation with @YIQI.... We are tracking how the following elegant defence can hold a breakup through, namely the main target in NZ 10Y Yields: For those who remember, the sweep and breakup was what we had our eye on. A move from 50bps to 100bps was very fancy! And now we have for ourselves a change of scenery! The...
A quick chart update here after reaching the 4th wave targets in a retrace; Buyers now have a definite advantage going into OPEC; an extension of the cuts will be enough to open the position towards $50. But the advantage is only tiny, as we are back at the previous breakdown from our long-term macro charts: OPEC now need to play the desperation...
There was apparently no motivation for sellers to continue the advance lower and neither does it seem pragmatic. AUD buyers are showing up once more and this looks like the prelude to an exciting momentum gambit. The trigger comes from a leap above the latent highs, it will move us forward full of energy as shorts start covering and the youthful arrogance of...
An interesting development on DAX after the planned highs last week. We will go through what does it mean, how is this an advantage to sellers and when is it appropriate to add to the position. The same focus can be applied across the global equity board. Resistance can also be conceived with the presence of stimulus; but total restraint, which reigns from...
A nice swing cooking right on time for December seasonality flows to kick in. This leg higher threatens the sacrifice of resistance and creates freedom to manoeuvre towards $4 and $5 in 2021. We have a similar sized move cooking in energy to the leg we traded in Oil, only this time round the swing we are tracking is to the topside. See for example the following...
Barnier comments on 'no deal is still possible' well illustrating the strategic skill of negotiation. UK has sadly been completely outplayed, not by any fault other than some simple Etonians sticking about fisheries which is 0.02% of GDP...Hard to understand how we ended up here, most £500m private companies would never dream of hiring Johnson as CEO or Sunak as...
📌 ridethepig | Chart of the Week This illustrates the struggle of the retrace. Motto: first map, then position, and finally destroy. Those that remember the infamous chart from Johnson elections will remember we are back to square one, another year has passed with the direction focused on a necessary component of 'how to make the country less worse off'. This...
Here selling would be a weak move, though it involves the sharp threat of 'everything back to normal' and 'the virus has gone'. The error is that Buyers are still protecting as the underlying infrastructure is weak, as long as confidence in the public sector dampens, buyers will continue blockading the $1,803 wall. After spotting the divergence, we are...
The linkage between base metals and the rate differentials is unknown to many in the pseudo-classical school of TA, which believe only in absolute correlation; as you all know the supply disruptions and pandemic related closures triggered the waterfall but we are not out of the woods yet...Remember we still have the demand side shock to play into price too, this...
📍 Dollar into December ... Here we are dealing with a sensitive situation, which we have discussed previously at earlier opportunities. One should not overlook the underlying strength of the dollar given it is the centrepiece of the currency board. After clearing the vaccine and all is roses newsflow, the next chapter of covid and risk is here into December - I...
📍 The nucleus of the retrace is in the open with a possibility of finding a floor. The central majority were clearly long into the elections and price got too far forward, or in other words this was a healthy correction which we saw coming miles in advance. All things being equal we should find quite a strong bid here as sellers unwind their shorts and...
📌 After completing a second test of 1.20xx, profit taking entered into play with the fix yesterday. Dollar is clearly restrained by Fed and WH prevention and then by a later of risk hedge clearings . Before I present the usual schematic representation, we should look at just how difficult the environment is to play correctly with timing these reversals. As...
📌 SPX has had its advance cut off; an attempt to cap it from the reckless advance allows the possibility of a panic blow which is decisive and impulsive in such situations, namely the invasion towards the pivot. This idea illustrates the stratagem of a major high against a 'positive' news flow. Since the Vol expansion is necessary for the defence of the...
📌 ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.11.26 This is one of the classic simultaneous 'worm in the apple' plays. It is an instructive illustration of the link between bids and offers in the short-term and diversionary support on the lows. The dependence of buyers position appears clearly on USD strength. The correct play here is to bid the 0.907x...
