I don't trade any CHF for well known reasons. But USDCHF has been a very good indication of overall USD strength meter for the past couple years. USDCHF has traded into a cluster of resistances, despite the fact that we just broken above a seemingly neckline of a double bottom pattern. There is a potential three drives completion right around where we trade right...
I am expecting two equal leg down from the June high. We accomplished the first leg thanks to the Greek drama. The commodity-yen carry trade crosses has been under perform lately as a risk on trade. They have been react heavily to risk off but not so much to risk on. Speaking of technical, We could have finished the current correction last week as a primary...
Be careful about the possible bounce from a cluster of fib and basic trend line support. We are only 100pips away from it.
So, the 5th wave end up lower than I thought it would be. But AUDJPY had broke above the bearish trend line and a upward correction is underway. The first leg we saw is a very clean 5 wave structure. I like this and look to buy at current level, stop below 5th wave low. targeting fib extension at 91.82 and 92.96.
USDCAD failed to break above the correction wedge (bull flag) today and register the (X) leg. the current (Z) leg could be very steep. Canadian employment data is due on Friday, which make this set up more dangerous. Aggressive play is to buy dip into April High at 1.2664 and manual stop 15 pip below the trend channel. Safer play is to wait for a break above the...
Similar story for AUDUSD. The difference is that on a bigger scale, we are in a impulsive down trend, and this pair is less sensitive to Greece drama compared to EURUSD. I thought the bear trend would resume in US session but the intraday triangle got broken and I switch to bull. If the coming leg up is the final one, it could potentially be very stretchy. The...
EURUSD is trading in a downward wedge. We turn today at (D) point and broke the trend line. Both european and us session contribute one leg down, and we now have completed the first three waves down. We are currently in a relief rally mode. Looking to sell around fib level 1.10571-1.10728 and or trend line resistance.
Pretty big technical event today. S&P close below 200SMA for the first time since last Oct. It could face a big correction finally. The exact path and target is hard to project for a correction like this. Since this correction is higher in degree compared to the nikkei is in. I expect this one to be deeper and/or longer. Check the big RED pitchfork I draw. The...
Nikkei was under huge pressure today. Regardless the reason behind the move, I identify it as the 4th wave correction(Purple). I expect the price action of this 4th wave to be confined by the black pitchfork. It could possibly spike lower and test May 2007 high at 18306. I think buy dip into that area and sell the first rally into the medium line is good play here.
Greece drama trigger a risk off environment recently. However, today the S&P500 made a remarkable V shape reversal off a key support. I personally see the index have room to rally to a new high or close to the previous one. This possible risk-on period could potentially offer us a bigger risk off play going forward. Look around the JPY-cross, all the commodity-JPY...
So, this one is less bullish for the mid-term compared to the previous one.
I see two major count of GBPUSD. Both of them are bullish. This one is more bullish than the other one.
S&P gap down below 200 days SMA. Watch out for a rally from here, as wave count hint a completion of wave (4) and we could rally to a new high or a possible 5th wave truncation.
Nothing could be done here. If we don't have a huge Monday gap potential, I would pull the trigger.
A safe cross to hold over the weekend. It is pretty much immune to Greece drama. Exit the first stop attempt. Looking to sell it again.
It is encouraging to touch 122.00 and hold it. But there is a risk of two more waves (D) (E) before entering the impulsive phase. Wait and see how the current rally plays out, and go from there. As long as we hold above major trendlines, buy dip is the better play.
Update2,So, It was a overthrowing wave B, Just took the long side. Update, It looks like a slap on my face. If this rally is sustainable. It looks like a ongoing 5 wave up. Nonetheless, I view this rally as the last correction before the downtrend is resumed. But this rally could be very strong depends on the NFP, and it could very well over throw. Very near...
Everything amazingly lined up.