ronfkingswanson

ronfkingswanson

No matter how you frame it, this recent corrective channel (since mid-January) has failed to hold. And a quick look back at the history of this big bubble bear slide shows we're just getting started on another bloody descent. Happens every time, and until the candles finally bust that fork top, the dominant trend here is still down... If there's one thing that...

ronfkingswanson

While we may still have some oomph left in this rally (settling in the low 300s for a while), the daily RSI is showing a perfect cycle from HI in Nov 12, 2014 to LOW in Jan 13, 2015 and back to the same HI here in March 11. Each wave is almost perfectly two months long. But while RSI has formed a totally flat top, the price from the november peak to today is...

ronfkingswanson

For me, the most dominant movement affecting priced action for the past two months was the non-stop rally from 440-680 that went from may into june. We've had pullbacks, retracements, etc - but overall that movement has managed to consolidate itself above the 0.382 fib, which is inherently bullish. The first deep selloff reached 0.618, but further tests of...

ronfkingswanson

Once again, we're in that phase where cries of "Litecoin is dead!" are everywhere. But no matter what you think about all the hip new trendy alt-coins with flashy features, the historical truth is that Litecoin has been on the exchanges for years, and has served generations of traders as a useful vehicle in and out of BTC (without touching fiat). Miners have been...

ronfkingswanson

Naturally the breach of the lower november bear triangle that we've been fighting for almost 6 months resulted in a surge of bull euphoria. That energy took us strongly through the upper bear triangle as well -- another bullish sign. However, we're likely nearing the top of this push, and it remains to be seen how the market will proceed after this peak. One...

ronfkingswanson

Many analysts have taken to calling the most recent selloff to 340 the final "bottom" of the November bubble correction, as it did touch a strong long-term trendline that is presumed to be supporting the price into the future. Even now, price action has flattened to epic levels of boredom as we approach the intersection of that trendline (dotted brown, above) with...

ronfkingswanson

Despite the various historic rising trendlines of support flattening the price to record levels of boredom, this approach to the big Januaray bear triangle is appearing to be setup for yet another slow rolloff resolution. It will get much closer than before, even kissing that triangle top, but it's just a bullish tease. Looking back to the last 2 sideways...

ronfkingswanson

There are many other projections around trying to guess the "bottom" of the bubble correction, and there are many trendlines and historical patterns to consider in defining that bottom. This analysis ignores the past data and simply looks at the price action since the November ATH as one long corrective series of oscillations "deflating" the bubble. On its own,...

ronfkingswanson

My last chart also anticipated a pre-dump rally, but expected it to max out at the channel boundary around $430. But the constant pushes from Chinese exchanges have resulted in a slow, determined penetration of that channel top, and now has the 4H ichi cloud in its sights. That, combined with the very large asks on BTC-e had me believing we'd easily be dropping...

ronfkingswanson

This is a continuation of the same projection of a 3-drives pattern, linked below. Clearly, there has been no rally to a reversal at the expected channel intersection, but we seem to finally be rounding up the bowl now, likely as a final price pump before a deep selloff to come as we approach a crucial May 10th deadline for China exchanges and banks. The overhead...

ronfkingswanson

The recent bounce on BTC-e at 413 revealed another trend reversal at a major channel intersection, just like the one near 451 that I referenced in the chart linked below, after the pullback from the high in this series of 544. Overlaying both rising and falling channels then revealed the strong selloff reversal that came near 490 (with the release of the Caixin...

ronfkingswanson

Thanks to our prolific @LazyBear, who has scripted a number of excellent indicators, I was introduced to the Twiggs Money Flow, which shows accumulation/distribution much like Chaikin Money Flow, but with a few tweaks. To quote, "Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation if above zero, while negative values signal distribution. The higher the reading (above or below...

ronfkingswanson

UPDATE 4/21 -- clearly we have had no strong impulse from china this monday, and since Chinese exchanges (huobi, okcoin) have been the leaders on every single motion in this series, there can be no breakout above the triangle unless and until they show up with one, and the western markets follow. I've posted a chart with this "red" 200% reflection shown below in...

ronfkingswanson

This is the wide-angle 4H chart from November-April that I sketched after having my recent bull conversion (linked below). I had noticed the first possible patterns showing the possible path of third rally after a triangle breakout on the 1H. Afterwards I started this analysis on a fresh chart when I started wondering what was dictating the historical...

ronfkingswanson

UPDATE: see additional charts below in the comments. also, we finally had a little pullback that momentarily breached the upward trendline, but the horizontal support of 457 held and bounced. UPDATE 4/19 11AM: **new high target $691** In my rush to get this sketched out yesterday before the rally started (and while most were calling for more bear), I had only...

ronfkingswanson

We finally had a small pullback from 544, but not nearly enough retracement or consolidation to support a continuation of this trend much further. The perfect periodic divisions of these rallies is causing so much anticipation that the bulls keep tripping over each other to be first in line, causing an acceleration of the rally attempts. When a pattern becomes...

ronfkingswanson

since our touch of the $340 zone, having broken a long-term support line at $380, all the western exchanges have been led by the nose by the chief bull, China (specifically OKcoin and Huobi) in a series of pumps that have brought us up 50% in value from $340. None of these steep rallies has pulled back more than to the 38% retrace before spiking up again. That is...

ronfkingswanson

Nearing the apex of the descending triangle encompassing the whole Nov 2013 bubble up to now. Another touch of the 400 zone has been almost too obvious, thus instead of the momentary wick touch of previous crashes, gravity is at work and we're sliding less dramatically to the floor. RSI upper trendline has been consistent for an entire month, and seems to be...