rrmhearts

rrmhearts

This shows expected interest payments as a moving average divergence around current interest payments which acts as a moving average that is delayed by one to two years. Anyways, the current "future" interest payments as calculated by the US05Y yield have never had a larger divergence from current payments. It is expected that in one to two years, US interest...

rrmhearts

Clear relationship between the ratio of SPX/USOIL and precious metals. The ratio bottoms precisely when gold and silver prices peak. If you "zoom in" you can see a strong downward tail (shooting star) in the latest month. Compare to previous bottoming events.

rrmhearts Updated 

There appears to be a 2-3 year delay between the current debt rates (US) and actually debt payment increases. It seems very likely that debt payments as a percent of tax receipts will go up to 28% similar to 2019 and 2020. What happens after that. It seems unlikely to me that GDP will continue to feed increases in federal tax receipts. 30% and above is next.

rrmhearts

It seems the pattern of silver and the money supply may be repeating itself today. The low in silver then after money printing coincided with the bottom of the tightening. When the money supply increased again, silver shot to $50. Similar pattern today! Let me know what you think. Thanks

rrmhearts

And here is $DXY/CPIAUCSL hitting the ceiling. It has never had a monthly close above the 200 month MA (blue line). We are right at the boundary. Is this the high for the dollar or do we pierce the veil?

rrmhearts

Despite M2V and GDP having better correlations to inflation, money supply itself also has a correlation to inflation.

rrmhearts

Money velocity after removing government expenditure is still correlated to inflation. It's not the current number, it's the rate of change. Recently, some on Twitter have stated low M2V means there is not a correlation between velocity and inflation; it's the rate of change.

rrmhearts

IF you remove government expenditures from GDP, you get a more accurate GDP, and a better correlation to inflation. Notice how the highs line up well. This correlation also exists for money velocity and money supply.

rrmhearts

Every time the yield curve inverts (US10Y-US02Y), we see a recession as well as a decline in housing prices. The past few months has been the worse time to buy a house. In about a year from now, it might be a great time to buy a house. The market will fall due to lack of demand. High inflation + recession means less purchasing power and fewer home buyers.

rrmhearts

Coming towards the lowest ratio ever. Lowest ever soon after the balanced budget of Bill Clinton. Almost at the COVID monthly low. Hard to imagine it making it to the previous low.

rrmhearts

Premise still stands. Ascending channel, see part 1 in links

rrmhearts

Waiting for GDP/PPIACO to bottom to know when SPX will bottom is a good idea.

rrmhearts

The interest rate flew up today. They will have to buy it back down. How long can they keep this up? By the end of the year, maybe we'll see either a sovereign default or higher inflation in Japan. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt. This likely will raise US rates.

rrmhearts

Japan's central bank is buying unlimited amounts of Japanese debt in order to maintain yields around 0.25%. This ratio shows yields over the central bank's balance sheet. When this trendline breaks to the upside, it essentially means that Japanese debt is being sold faster than the central bank can buy. Japan may be going through some serious financial events very...

rrmhearts

There is a clear correlation between GDI and GOLD. Here I present GOLD/M2SL so that the chart is more manageable. Each time GDI/PPIACO drops below flat, there is an inevitable increase in GOLD and SILVER price. Currently, waiting the latter event.

rrmhearts Updated 

This is self explanatory. See the chart. Top chart is today, bottom chart is 2009. Color coded tops and bottoms. History repeats itself it seems.

rrmhearts Updated 

This chart shows two possibilities of interpretation: a bullish case drawn in yellow and a near term bearish case drawn in red. I found the concept quite aesthetic. On a personal note, Team Yellow.

rrmhearts Updated 

This is a historic low for silver when compared to other commodities. It seems clear that we are in a similar position in terms of ratio and 50,200 MA as October 2018. I would expect a 30% bounce in the ratio before retesting 200 MA. In the SILVER chart this corresponds to retesting trend around $24. Bouncing off 200 MA in silver is also possible, but we will...