runyamhere

runyamhere

The TVC:DXY is touching the 200 week moving average and also the median of the bear pitchfork. Double support usually provide a bounce, those who are bullish the 50 basis cut might be trapped and rekt.

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Mondi has had a stellar run, price is now at level where the Russian war panic set in, this is also a confluence of resistance, the horizontal line meets the resistance of the rising wedge as well as the 100% retracement zone of the Russian panic. With RSI overbought & in week 8 of a weekly cycle, odds are we are topping. Week 9 is a favourite high for previous...

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Absa lost the support that sustained price from the COVID lows, now price is attempting to recover that line. At the same time we are expecting price to seek or confirm a yearly low, usually this happens when we have a failed weekly cycle, this has not happened so far. If price is rejected at re-entry attempt we can expect a swift move down to lower than...

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Price of NDQ is nearing a trendline formed by the dotcom bubble and November 2021 high. This zone could repel price, big drops can be expected if we breach the price of 16249.19 on pullback. For now bystanders are needed to enter, unless a clear cycle failure best not to stand in the way of exuberant bulls.

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The monthly chart of PPH shows we had a falling wedge from which price broke to the downside, we have had a swing low on the monthly chart, if we recover the wedge we will have confirmation that the move down was a false breakdown, this will be a very bullish setup with price expected to move swiftly to close above the purple resistance. Stop-Loss If we get...

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NYSE:NIO ended the week with a swing low in week 36, a good timing for a weekly low, the price is seeking a yearly low price too. We need price to close above the 10 week moving average for full confirmation that the weekly cycle has turned a corner. On the monthly chart we see some positive divergence building on the TSI & RSI.

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Quilter is moving into a long weekly cycle, currently in week 42. Price is also seeking a yearly low, the last was the COVID low and we are well below that level. Ideally we want price to go below the previous weekly low (R16.61), this gives a good runway to the upside. The dashed pink line is where we will have confirmation of a weekly low by closing above this...

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Gold Fields has confirmed a weekly swing low, now needs to move above the green line to confirm trend change on a weekly time frame. R180-190 level will be strong resistance and a swing high on the daily time frame around this price is good for taking some profits.

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Angloplat chart shows that price is in long-term decline and we are getting close the COVID low price. Price action has respected the Pitchfork and we see an area where there will be expected to be strong support, the intersection of the Pitchfork support and the horizontal support line. Before we get there we might find a turning point where the lowest price of...

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The JSE Top40 powered above 2 key resistance lines but it quickly reversed course, we call this a false breakout (FBO), such failures usually move violently to the lower side. On the weekly perspective, the share is in week 31 so we are likely going lower than the lower pink support. After the pink support fails, we turn can see the green arrow was lower than the...

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AMD is hitting the resistance of the broadening wedge, from a daily chart perspective price is seeking a daily cycle high so there is an opportunity to tru and hit resistance again but once a swing high forms at the weekly we have higher confidence that price will retrace at minimum to the black mid-line.

runyamhere

In week 24 we have closed our long position (see linked idea), Aspen is hitting channel resistance & 100% extension of the fib. Once price sets a swing high, we can be certain that trend reversal has started therefore a short position can be opened.

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Aspen is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle, it has good support in the triangle and the median line of Pitchfork. On the weekly perspective we are in time for a half cycle correction hence I expect the price to resolve upwards. The stop-loss is R185.41

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JPM has 2 plots playing out, a rising wedge nested with a larger broadening wedge. We have negative divergence showing up on TSI & RSI showing that we might reach an early peak in current weekly cycle. Though price is above the a horizontal resistance, there is a higher probability that this is a false breakout. A weekly swing high can be a signal for an entry...

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MTN price went below R131.25 representing a cycle failure, since this is early in the cycle, we can expect price to begin trending downwards with high probability we are going below R107.35 (the previously weekly low). The share has also failed to recover the broadening wedge. In the short-term we can expect a weak bounce out of a half cycle correction.

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We have previously detailed the short position on Sasol (see linked idea), now we analyze the bullish case, Sasol price has diverged from Brent, brent is seeking a daily cycle high while Sasol is seeking a cycle low. Here we see a Hammer candle forming at the point of the 0.50 retracement of downtrend. This area is also a support level set by price as it moved out...

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Old Mutual is seeking a low on the long-term time frame. Currently bouncing off support. More risk accepting investors can accumulate at these levels as weekly swing low is confirmed, longer term traders can wait for a swing low confirmation on a monthly basis. The target profit from this move is at least 25% at which point a downtrend can be expected to resume...

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The share appears to be in distribution, the RSI is already showing negative divergence building up. The blue line is where we expect price to fully confirm that a weekly drop is well underway besides the weekly swing high already confirmed. We can also see price has exited the rising wedge & has backtested it, long positions are best taking profit at these levels.