rzmb44

rzmb44 Updated 

I believe we are at an incredibly important spot for bitcoin. My long term view was that we’d get an important low in the summer of 2018. I was leaning for late July to September. The low in June is perfectly acceptable for my timing studies, so at this point, the probability of that $5700 is the low is now higher than the bear case, but its far from a...

rzmb44 Updated 

In my last idea, I expect we would turn down at $6800 or move up to the $7100 area then go down to make a major low at the end of July. As it turned out, we turned down at $6800 but there was not enough bearish momentum to drive us down into a major cycle low. I managed by risk and stopped out of my short in profit at $6550 and generally stood on the sidelines...

rzmb44 Updated 

It’s my belief that probabilities are high that we go lower and that this next low could be the major bear market low or at least the 2018 low. If not late July then late September, but I’m preparing to short this rally and buy the next low for a long term bullish swing trade. I am not convinced this current rally has staying power. However, I will explain why I...

rzmb44 Updated 

When bitcoin passed below $7000 it really put price into a new position. And breaking below $6500 also confirmed that we in danger of lower prices. It's not too late to catch support and rally from here. The market can do anything. But its not ideal area for a major low. My goal here is to step back and look at a weekly log chart and really try to digest...

rzmb44 Updated 

It's day 28 of the 30 day cycle and after going down to $5800 this morning, we ran out of sellers, buyers started coming in and squeezed all the stops to make a quick run up to $6200 area that is holding nicely. This chart is a daily and though we have 6 more hours before it closes, if we get a close with this kind of wick then I'd consider this to be a very...

rzmb44 Updated 

After giving it a good run, bitcoin took a few shots to break resistance at $6800. It had one dip then tried again. Every effort was sold with strong volume. Today we had a sell down to the $6700 area then spent over 12 hours in a tight $50 range hovering the bottom of a rising wedge. The bulls took one last shot to drive it up and it was sold into at $6760. ...

rzmb44 Updated 

Be careful here. Litecoin already below its consolidation area and showing weakness compared to other coins. If it breaks down there is no strong support until we get to that volume area well below. It really needs to hold here and break above the trendline or it could lose 30-40% very quickly as there will be a lot of stops below this area with potential for...

rzmb44 Updated 

Bitcoin has a 60 day cycle that can help us find lows and a 30 day cycle that can be a high or a low. It will find a low between 55 and 65 days approximately 80% of the time, but it can have a short cycle. This happened often during several oversold conditions in December through February. Based on the 30 day cycle we had an early daily low at day 23. I was...

rzmb44 Updated 

No one can guess the market with 100% accuracy. However, we can look at evidence and build probabilities and when a market does what you expect, you can use that to set up a trade. I use price action, patterns, supply/demand, cycles and timing tools to look for market pivots. If my tools get me close then I'll make really profitable trades. If my tools are...

rzmb44 Updated 

As you can tell from my last idea, I've been looking for a bounce for over week. But now bitcoin it is a very important level. It's due or die time. Here is why: 1. We've had big downward momentum and no signs of buyers... yet 2. Nothing major happened at Consensus 3. We are at the critical 60-65% fibonacci retracement level. 4. This could be a wave 2...

rzmb44 Updated 

What do I always tell you guys? You do not want a market to go straight up without pullbacks. There is no support that gets built. There are no buyers to protect their position. So once profit taking begins, there's a panic to sell and book profits for anyone that was long from the day of the short squeeze. They see their profits evaporating and can't take it...

rzmb44 Updated 

Almost every trader focuses on price analysis. That makes sense, because price is obviously important. However, a majority of traders do not incorporate time as part of their analysis. Bitcoin trader Tone Vays is famous for using Tom Demark indicators (I also use and recommend following him). It's one way of measuring time and can help you time your trades...

rzmb44 Updated 

As I suggested in my Bitcoin Long Play idea at $6500, the market would shoot up fast, squeeze shorts and wouldn't provide a pullback to buyers. Still, I was looking for some kind of pullback on April 21st that never really happened. We got a shallow pullback to $8700. At some point this move up will need a larger correction. This chart is comparing bitcoin today...

rzmb44 Updated 

As you know from previous posts, I went long at $6500 after accumulation and took some partial profits. I'm taking full profits right here. I have a small short opened at $8900. I'm looking for a pullback from $7900-$8300 area. My stop is at $9250. Breaking that resistance I would re-evaluate but likely just look for another point to short at a higher price. ...

rzmb44 Updated 

As I stated in my last post, I identified accumulation, recognized the potential short squeeze and took a long position. The squeeze was so violent that I am now in a position of strength. So I will remain long and try to hold it until I see signs of weakness or until I get stopped out. I took 10% profit at $8000 and have a partial stop at $7400 in profit and...

rzmb44

This is a post so I could do a self evaluation of my trades. I'm a long term bitcoin bull but trading this as a bear market. Overall, I have done extremely well but want to look for areas of improvement while also providing information that is educational to new traders. Links to these updates here: www.tradingview.com Nov 20 - Bitcoin Compared to Silver...

rzmb44 Updated 

Amazing how fast sentiment can change. Last week it looked like we were going to $20k. Now here we are testing monthly lows. I'm seeing people that were permabulls now asking how you short this market. Reddit has 10 posts a day about market manipulation. The choppy nature of the market has taken its toll. But historically speaking, I do not like the...

rzmb44 Updated 

Even though I'm a long term bull, I've been bearish after the first big drop in December. Many investors think its shorters, bears, bear whales or market makers that drive down a market. It isn't. It's a lack of buyers. You have to understand the current psychology. A lot of people bought bitcoin last fall simply because price was going up. Since it isn't going...