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Our neutral stance on gold proved correct so far. We’ve forecasted a correction in the neighborhood of 5%-7% from the swing high, which ended in February 2018. Price action took us right into that area already. The overall result is that gold has not made any progress since Christmas 2018. We remain with our forecast that the current correction will bring an...

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Crude rallied again into an interesting junction. The nearest WTI contract is probably close to an intermediate degree trend reversal. The technical, as well as behavioral evidence, hints to a nearby fade. Speculators’ sentiment rebounded and the oil industry shows elevated bullishness. There are striking similarities between the sentiment picture in early Summer...

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The US Yield Curve inverted as 3m Treasuries trade at a higher yield than 10y treasuries. This narrative began spreading throughout financial media last week. It may not sound relevant to the average investor but the gauge attracts attention among many finance professionals. They are aware that an inverted yield curve has been a reliable early indicator of...

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We had a good grip on the development of all major EUR/USD swings over the past few years. Most of that analysis was published publicly during the past 18 months. The latest public post argued that a sideways correction is likely to resolve to the downside . It appears likely that we are on the right track again. Our forecast of the past few months shows early...

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What does the technical picture tell us about the 10-Year US Treasury yield? The pale green area in the chart is a rising trend channel. Rates rose within that channel since the mid-2016 secular low. It got broken to the downside during late 2018. The break occurred within the swing that is encapsulated by the pale grey trend channel. The swing within the pale...

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This article is an update to the view that we expressed during Q4/2018. Equities rebounded sharply and it is reasonable to question our bearish outlook. To recap briefly, we forecasted a cyclical reversal for US equities on October 16th 2018 . Thereafter, we focused on potential alternatives for the current market environment. We concluded that Silver and the...

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The major US equity indices probably entered a bear market during Autumn 2018. Descriptive statistics show that the  current cycle is at the very long end  in comparison to what the US economy witnessed during the past 150 years. Moreover, a longer-term technical analysis perspective suggests that the  stage is set for a cyclical correction . The selloff during...

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Silver could turn out to be the true superstar within the precious metals complex. There are no new inventions around silver that lead to this conclusion. It is based on technical analysis. Silver behaved like gold on steroids. The swings in both metals went into the same direction but had a far bigger magnitude in silver. There is no obvious reason why this...

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The USD/JPY currency pair corrected in a three-wave sequence before rebounding to the upside. We interpret this to be a fourth wave of minuette degree. Hence, an ending diagonal remains the most likely scenario. It is likely to unfold into early December before reversing multiple degrees of trend. The black pattern will remain our base case as long as the...

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The T-Note Elliott wave structure looks corrective short term. We record a drop from the May high and a subsequent 3-wave bounce. The bounce reached a Fibonacci level of the previous drop. We carefully conclude that the trend direction changed to the downside. We need to see confirmation regarding that. A break of the pale green trend is a first big step of...

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Indian equities are full of opportunities for those who understand the big picture and risks for those who don’t. What is next on the menu for the Nifty 50 index?  The broad-based Indian equity index shows an impulsive wave from 2016 into the 2018 high. The impulse has a third wave extension. Moreover, we see alternation between a swift and deep second wave and...

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The Nasdaq index has been trapped in a sideways correction. Its Elliott wave structure probably develops as some forth wave triangle. Selling pressure became increasingly weak along the correction, which resulted into divergence. The Price action will most likely resolve to the upside. A resolution should evolve into something similar to our black path. Target...

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Emerging economies are most likely the leaders during the topping process of risky assets worldwide. The most prominent markets, China and Brazil, are already close to -20% below their early 2018 peak. We expect the topping process to persist during 2018 and eventually follow into a multimonth correction. This time lagged behavior has been typical throughout...

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The USDJPY is most likely in a mid-term downtrend. That is depicted by the pale green and blue channels. The current move up is most likely corrective and it is most likely mature. The black scenario is slightly more likely. However, red could also play out. That would be the case if an impulse gets near the dotted horizontal line. The first steps to that are an...

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It appears as if the German Dax set up a nice bear trap last week. The drop from mid-May as well as the subsequent bounce appears to be 3 wave swings. Moreover, the other main European indices appear not done with their correction to the downside short-term. Depending on the intensity of a further selloff, Europe may set the path for the next big swing and...

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We truly hope that many of you could take advantage of that! Tradingview not only provides a great platform for ideas but also for reference. That's great because you can reflect on what gets posted here. Go through that lets you evaluate good idea generators. Professionals who manage traders or have to choose among hedge funds typically put a heavy weight on...

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Crude did a textbook correction. It was sudden and hard and faked a break-out. Net speculative positioning came off further in crude. All in all, the upside may be clear for further progress. The crude Elliott wave pattern has probably completed its correction. A 61.8% Fibonacci got targeted and the bounce from the low appears impulsive. The next step is a break...

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Momentum is picking up during the current advance to the upside. The black count becomes increasingly likely. The Dow Jones Elliott wave structure still needs to subdivide into at least one more down-up sequence before the rally wave since the end of May 2018 completes. At that point, it will be deciding whether our red scenario has any validity or not. That...