sean78808

sean78808

Posted here are my thoughts on the prospects of an ALT Season for cryptocurrency markets, which, like all risk on equities have been hammered by rejection by 'smart money' of President Trump's economic agenda since the latter's inauguration. Unexpected by most acolytes of the Four Year Halving Cycle, OTHERS (an index of ALT coins outside of the 'Top Ten')...

sean78808 Updated 

Granted that tech stocks are clearly hostage to macro at present (Trump v. Powell), a few are poised to rebound strongly should events permit. Palantir is one of them. With support above the 50% of the move from the 8/5 low to the ATH, with good fundamentals, and a narrative that remains compelling (AI), Palantir may well continue its run if the results of next...

sean78808

An amusing thought... After a week full of FUD, manipulation, and a turn to risk-off, BTC's price action appears to have assumed a familiar pattern--for now, anyway. (Beating and finding support above 96K would likely validate this absurd turnaround.) Will traders sell the news next week???

sean78808 Updated 

A case more bullish than an undoing of the move of BTC from $60K to six digits... Price action could plausibly retrace to the 200d MA or Golden Pocket of the move from the 10/10/24 Swing Low and find support on either. This case would likely play out as a violent wick down and v-shaped return to VAL of the volume profile. If we are talking a Golden Pocket...

sean78808

Implausible without a positive catalyst and a return of interest in 'Risk On': A V Shaped recovery of price action, reclaiming the value area in question, support of the VWAP and POC, essentially reversing the dump begun 2/21 with the curiously timed revelation of the Bybit hack... Should price action *rapidly* reclaim GETTEX:97K --or, better yet, $99.8K--and...

sean78808

My most bearish guess for where BTC price proceeds from here (2/25/25): Consistent with a Double Top, we see basically a 786 retracement (however circuitous) below the 200d SMA to levels preceding the move to $100K begun in November of 2024. This could--and would likely--involve a bearish retest of the VAL of the volume profile anchored at the 10/10/24 Swing...

sean78808

A preliminary look at the ongoing--perhaps engineered--collapse since the Bybit cold wallet fiasco... The retracement to the $90K range, expected by many, from the ATH of 1/20 finally seems to have broken price action out of the prolonged compression in which has been stuck for over a month now. Where it's far from over, a couple of things stand out. Presuming...

sean78808

I have to concur with those calling for BTC, fundamentals notwithstanding, to retest the order block formed by the wick down on 1/13. The 100d SMA, price action has closed beneath that. Anchor a VWAP to the 12/17 HH, price action has closed beneath that. (The order block in question is 2 standard deviations south.) Anchor a volume profile to the 12/17 HH,...

sean78808

Is the 2025 Bull Run still on? Will there be an alt season? I don't know that survival of a week of bad CPI and PPI data is enough to confirm that. But there is some evidence that the massive wick to the downside on 2/2 for alts (this chart shows the 'OTHERS' index, the true alts, those out of the top ten in market cap) constitutes a bottom. The latter...