shawnsyx68

shawnsyx68

STocks rallied on false hopes of easing rates. time for some mean reversion

shawnsyx68

Back to normal. That is the signal that the FED has eff'ed things up and a major earnings recession is coming. Think 200X15 on s&p500

shawnsyx68

You better hope not. watch out below. Could take a long to to BEAR out LOL

shawnsyx68

It's when it normalizes you better watch out. I think we've put in a generational top and we go lower. Can't rule out a continued rally as the state of inversion can last a while.

shawnsyx68

Rates are backing up again on the false presumption that the economy is ok and that FED will keep raising rates to combat inflation. I believe a global recession is all but certain at this point. Plus, if China opens back up and inflation is pushed higher it is more likely priced in on treasuries and the impact not fully priced in for corporate bonds or junk. ...

shawnsyx68

More downside coming if this is even close to the GFC of 2008.

shawnsyx68

Down side target from H&S top is 179 which coincides with the .618 retracement from march 20 low to high. See you there soon.

shawnsyx68

We have a bullish engulfing pattern and a diverging RSI signal. Recession is coming time to be long bonds I think. Contrarian signal as well. Nobody wants bonds

shawnsyx68

What rate breaks the system? 1.5, 2, 2.5 percent? They have to push it to 2.50 or what little credibility they have will be lost.

shawnsyx68

sell spy on a rip, buy bonds on this dip market has mostly priced the fed's moves in now. Outliers are higher rate rises than expected

shawnsyx68

They are at their highest relative yield vs stocks in decades @ 2.71% and sitting on huge support. Stocks are still a short on any rally

shawnsyx68

It could get uglier for stocks here if we continue higher on commodities.

shawnsyx68

You are better off buying bonds right here vs selling, but may still be some more pain to the downside short-term. Sentiment at extreme pessimistic level.

shawnsyx68

Sell bonds and buy stocks or buy bonds and sell stocks?

shawnsyx68

Is it this this or this? At least back then there was a value catalyst. What's the catalyst this time?

shawnsyx68

This is bad. When you can't create supply what happens to the saying about what cures high prices? Waaaay Higher prices and Economic global recession.

shawnsyx68

It sure will if this double bottom low doesn't hold. This is also the .382 fib retracement area as well

shawnsyx68

The inversion of the yield curve becomes problematic when it starts reversing. This is starting to happen at a higher and higher levels where true inversion isn't necessary for economic destruction. What level will it stop at this time? each of the past 4 have been at higher levels. My guess is that 1.75% on 2 yr rates and 4.5 on mortgages crushes stocks again...