shawnsyx68

shawnsyx68

See comments on chart. Correction could extend longer and further

shawnsyx68

If bonds can take out 152 then there is an air pocket between 152-156 and you could see a very quick squeeze to 156. That would coincide with another drop in the market as well. At that point I am a seller of bonds and buyer of stocks. $spy may have another 2% downside. If this is an inverted H&S then we could easily see top of volume range to 160 on tilt

shawnsyx68

If this pan out and the frank gets erect it could spell trouble for risk assets

shawnsyx68

Above 15 and you have to be long. 22% short very high

shawnsyx68

If this pattern plays out, it would be disastrous for stocks and bonds in my opinion, as bonds become more attractive in yld and stocks traders (massively leveraged) have to deleverage.

shawnsyx68

Not sure the last time a H&S top worked in the indexes. We shall see

shawnsyx68

There is not way this should be happening in the junk world. it's a massive short imho

shawnsyx68

the market. It controls the direction of $tnx which controls next move in $iwm and $gld There is an outside shot we get a temporary spike to 232 on the crb index, but I think that is it. High portability that we get a substantial correction sometime soon. Tnx looks like an inverted H&S bottom but that would require a super cycle move in commodities beyond 232...

shawnsyx68

RSI divergence and it pressing and slightly through major DT line says this needs to pull back and consolidate before moving higher and confirming a potential breakout. Fundamentals supportive of further upside I expect a few wks in the 72-76 range is possible

shawnsyx68

Similar time of year, similar case of inflation creeping back in and a housing bubble to boot. Fed needs to begin draining liquidity from $mbs Likely to cause a hiccup in the market

shawnsyx68

I'm gonna state it like this in my Mr. T voice. announcer: What do you predict if kre drops below the blue support line? Mr. T.: Pain

shawnsyx68

Odds are high that we have seen or are very close to a peak in inflation.

shawnsyx68

I would be careful piling into commodities right here. May have a little more upside, but downside risk is developing. Energy carrying it right now. Not to mention the bearish RSI divergence forming as well

shawnsyx68

Expect choppiness in commodities for a while. Major LT overhead resistance and DT line capping run for now

shawnsyx68

Just look at Thomson reuters crb index and the probability that the dollar is bottoming. Barron's article points to everyone being bullish on inflation trade and boat is tipping to one side decidedly. we could see an uptick from ST oversold condition to con't a little bit, but I expect that commodites have topped for now and will consolidate for a while before...

shawnsyx68

I expect a bounce then resumption of downward price trajectory

shawnsyx68

I expect an ABC correction here before we move lower then it's full on chop for remainder of summer. Get your forks and knives out.

shawnsyx68

If this diagonal support fails then we have a fair amount further to fall.