sosgoodlfc

sosgoodlfc

Keeping an eye on EurAud for a potential reversal of trend over the next few days. If we get a good move up of the old resistance line it wouldn't be a bad idea to go long expecting a major reversal. We'll see.

sosgoodlfc

Tech divided by the broader market has broken it's lower channel. Note the pre health crisis trend range down below. Do you think it's possible the market could fully normalise the gap between the tech and the broader market taking this price back into the old trend range in a best case reopening scenario?

sosgoodlfc Updated 

Stop nudged up again with R/R nearly @ 1/1 now. For me the 200 EMA on the 4 hr needs to hold or we could easily see a sell off to challenge those lows from when we entered the trade.

sosgoodlfc

As the price action falls out of the trend regression we will find resistance at the lower channel. We also have a nice converging triangle. The price could break up or down of the triangle but for the near term my preference would be to fade rises in yields. Coming into a FOMC meeting we can expect a "wait and see" market today followed by volatility during the...

sosgoodlfc

stop loss has been pushed into profit as a revisit here would invalidate the trade idea. My hope is we can make a run for the 100% line for a really nice risk reward. I'll be tentatively nudging the SL up when fibs are clearly broken or when a support resistance pivot has been broken. Until the trade gets to a risk reward ratio of 1 the SL will be loose and reactive.

sosgoodlfc

With bonds catching a bid now might be the time for a considerable rally in tech. The longer term dot plot by the fed suggests the 30y could rally to around 2.5% but if the momentum slows this could be a good bottom forming on the Nasdaq. Really good R/R at the moment.

sosgoodlfc

We fall in a 5 wave pattern

sosgoodlfc

We consolidate for a while

sosgoodlfc

In this scenario tech snaps back

sosgoodlfc Updated 

Long term I'm bullish on oil but I wouldn't mind a little mean reversion here.

sosgoodlfc

This has now officially turned very bearish. Under the 200 EMA, we had a perfect rally back to the old trend line and bounced off it as resistance, and we broke under major support. I still think the longer term view supports higher gold prices but right now I wouldn't touch it until it found strength in the 1600s. The other option is the sell off reverses and...

sosgoodlfc

Tech divided by the broader market has shown an outperformance in tech. Until the channel break with a follow through I would stay weighted with tech over a more balanced portfolio. In the event the channel is broken a rotation into a balanced portfolio may be the best idea.

sosgoodlfc

Rising yields creating inflation fears and rate hikes being priced in. But this market is on crack & will most likely bounce back because the party can't be over. J Powell could jaw bone this market to all time highs just by saying he's going to do yield curve control.

sosgoodlfc

Gold getting hit by rising bond yields, a side ways trading dollar & risk appetite in broader markets. But... I like the commodity. My longer term view is still 3000 gold. If it starts breaking down from here though I would worry about a technical sell off on broken support (Could be looking at around 1600s in that scenario). But if we get a contraction in...

sosgoodlfc

It could just be an ABC which has been completed and a smaller correction is needed. Just in case it's not I'm implementing reversion strategies. You never know if a reversion turns into a ~10% correction.

sosgoodlfc

As the price falls through the fib level and recovers above it consider a short term long with a view of a run up to paint a double top going into the election. Good risk/reward and not bad probability.

sosgoodlfc

Here are the 10,20,30,40,50 & 60 tick projections based on my "Inertia Model" (Subject to being updated as price develops - Historically the further out the prediction is, the less accurate it will tend to be) NOT ADVICE - JUST SHARING MY NEW STRATEGY FOR CATEGORISING THE MARKET INTO PHASES FOR MY QUANT STRATEGIES Current Inertia Level of market: -2.404 (Bearish...

sosgoodlfc

As gold comes into the blue area I'm personally happy start adding into weakness here. Still expecting a move into wave 5 coming into the latter end of the year. Additional notes - The Dollar has recently broken up from a consolidation which could cause some further volatility. Regardless I'd still be adding, we are in a metals bull market with all the...