spruce_g00se

spruce_g00se Updated 

HERE IS MY IDEA ON THE CHART. DISCUSS. Tradingview wants me to say more words about it. Well, it's and idea and it's based on data on the chart.

spruce_g00se

I have presented this chart to log my ideas about where/when I think Bitcoin could top out this cycle, and likely targets for the bottom of the next bear market.

spruce_g00se

$1M by early 2026. Nuff said. You heard it here first.

spruce_g00se

Today we had a successful launch of EIP-1559 with fee-burn tokenomics. Looking at the early stages of fee burn rates, the net issuance of ETH has approximately halved from around 500 ETH/hr to 250 ETH/hr - the effect is like a halving for BTC - although the exact rates may change over time. In the past we have seen big bull markets for BTC in the period following...

spruce_g00se

TOTAL crypto market cap fractal: last bull run overlayed on this bull run + fib expanded pitchfork. This is the most bullish/optimistic scenario (history repeating itself). Beautiful support/resistance points on pitchfork lines (parabolic, this is log chart). Suggests $28tn mcap peak in Dec 2021. BTC.D chart suggests to me that 25% BTC dominance is a reasonable...

spruce_g00se Updated 

OK so here's my big BITCOIN prediction, for the record. Looking at the monthly chart on log scale, I think the similarity of the retracement from Nov 13 and Dec 17 highs is really markedly similar. In both cases the price retraces to an amount closely approaching the 88.6% fib level. Notably also from a time sequence perspective the cycles have tightened slightly...

spruce_g00se Updated 

Here I have drawn straight lines on a log chart, which is always a debatable technique.. but the wedge and the breakout is clear. Tradition profit target would be the top turning point of the wedge at 57k sats. Hopefully we will see this during 2021. With BTC at 40k that means a $24 price target, but we could get 5x or more on BTC from here.. so I'd be inclined to...

spruce_g00se Updated 

I'm not sure if we are done with the current bull move, it would be nice to properly test the $2 resistance zone ($1.90 - $2.10). Looking to break the resistance then retest as support to get a solid boost to $4.

spruce_g00se Updated 

This is another trade that I'm watching but not yet entering. It's currently in a parabolic move on a shorter timescale and I'm looking for a breakdown of that, to retest $0.027 support and hopefully also a larger parabolic support line which could send this one shooting up to $0.06 within a month or two. There's more potential upside so if it's successful to that...

spruce_g00se Updated 

I am working on shorter term trading strategies, looking for bounces of typically 1% - 3% in BTC off of EMA's, channel boundaries, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance lines, and fib levels. I wanted to document a few to make sure I'm not kidding myself about success rates. Having seen Bitcoin break out to ATH today, it doesn't make sense to FOMO in long...

spruce_g00se Updated 

BAND is looking pretty well primed on the 1D chart. It's completing a nice inverse head-and-shoulders reversal against support at $4, which was a 0.786 retrace from the prior high, and against resistance just below $8. I'll buy some of this now and through a zone from $7 back down to $4 as necessary. Having that downside DCA range is important because if BTC makes...

spruce_g00se Updated 

I am experimenting with TA on stocks and market indices. I think it is much less reliable than crypto due to closer links to external/macro factors. In my opinion SPX is significantly overbought. On 2nd Sept we reached a 4H RSI of 88 and 1D RSI of 84 - we've only seen SPX this overbought in the last 20 years on one occasion, on 26th Jan 2018. On that occasion we...

spruce_g00se Updated 

I'm assuming that this one is going to retrace a little before breaking up again. I'm going to buy this one back down to retest of 1D EMA200 and possibly the rising support trendline, to join the next bull run. Exit target is based on a range around 1.618 extension of previous 2017/18 bull run macro wave - which gives a top around $610. However it's certainly...

spruce_g00se Updated 

Looks like a good opportunity to catch a 5th wave. We have retraced as far as golden pocket and have the 1D EMA200 for support. Could start DCA buys now but expect retrace as far as 0.786 at least.

spruce_g00se Updated 

I think we have to admit that there is a very high probability of BTC closing the CME gap that exists down to $9665. Every prior gap on BTC CME Futures since it launched 2.5 years ago has been filled, and this is the only one remaining. Yes there will be strong support in the $10,500 region, but I would really like to see a wick all the way down to $9665 to close...

spruce_g00se Updated 

I wrote my thoughts on the chart, comments welcome.

spruce_g00se Updated 

In my previous idea from December I called the bottom within a couple hundred dollars: However I no longer think that we can make it into the 11k range on this wave. I can't see any other way to make the Elliot Wave count other than what is shown here, with wave 5 completion. Whilst we could get an extension, I think we are due for a significant retrace and...

spruce_g00se Updated 

The JLR news has caused a clear impulse upwards and potentially can cause a elliot wave sequence to trade off. We can try to trade wave 3 or wait for wave 5. Long entries with current BTC uncertainty could be risky but IOTA looks due for a recovery. We'll be looking for support off the 1H EMA200, depending on the timing this could cause the reversal from the...