sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Delusion of data, ranging from China to US, all softer tone than expected. Consumption falls or demand destruction one has to wait and see. For now, yield soften, Dollar breaks the crucial support, focus shifts from Political Scenario elsewhere to US. Most of the Economists sing now "Come September" for first FED rate cut. Finally, the much-awaited cut...

sreebhashyam

While on one hand there are measures to ensure retail won't lose money, or at least expected that retailers are kept away from taking the bets, we see one more product that comes with 10L ticket size. Either we are made to believe that ticket size of 10 L is not retail and those know how to handle the risk or worry is only about investors losing below the 10 L...

sreebhashyam

Sometimes simple things work wonders, and one my favourite pattern is HnS, Head and Shoudlers. Look we have one here, though neckline is yet to break. We have stronger bigger frames, and this one is much smaller frame. Yesterday price action of rise from lows, despite higher inflation than factored, augurs well for the neckline break. Also, the gap down of...

sreebhashyam

The rotation continues to play, rarely we see IT, Bank joining hands. If IT led profiting unfolds, Banks take control and in the end, we have robust NIFTY on the ascendent. It looks 25K is what the ideal area that market wants to target. Truncated week, and then comes the budget week. Lots of drama and data over the weekend, our own inflation comes higher...

sreebhashyam

The role of the Central Bank is always in the nature of last resort. We have our own inflation report later. No way one can extrapolate global softer tone to our own. We are different this time too! or otherwise is the curious thing to watch. Concerns continue to mount on the asset class that everybody crowding in, the exposure by the retail, the increasing...

sreebhashyam

One more day of volatile move down up and each one takes one's cues home. The psychology parts never dismay, many living in the wave 3 environment when wave 5 is in motion. After the FNO measurements, now the actual and required measures in raising the haircuts or removing them from the collateral category, this is the textbook approach and can yield much more...

sreebhashyam

Powell comes back and gives that the mandate of Central Bank is not just about inflation control. It has dual mandate of Jobs. While he is trying to manage the waves ahead of the election year, the truth remains that is the mandate, nothing new. One can recall his comments on unemployment rate to move higher to bring the needle of inflation lower. Once cancels...

sreebhashyam

The usual, claimer or disclaimer when you see the delicate and expensive pieces of art. If touched considered sold. The feather touch! Ther rise, shaven head (almost just 1.20 points), panic selling across. No one is sure why it is falling, the curiosity gallows, the reasons abound, who took away my 25K remains. Yes, fall of small relative to rise is not a...

sreebhashyam

Once again about the SEBI Select Committee recommendations. 1. Increase in the FnO lot size, that is deterrent only to the retail who trades one lot, even for him he can go to the Margin Funding route, worse, some one can structure, Margin Funding ticket equivalent of the old lot. Market Evolves. 2. On Expiry, yes this can reduce to some extent, but not on the...

sreebhashyam

China Inflation Cools, Japan PPI softens, Powell sounds on rate cuts. Yesterday NZ bonds fell (yields rise), today the reverse as the Central Bank says inflation would return under control. Nothing to materialise as fall in inflation is more transitory than ever. It is the rate of inflation that is falling not the inflation, with Economic Growth plot owing, AI...

sreebhashyam

Not much to glean from the market that moves little, convey nothing after the V shape. Left to interpret, the psychological 50K mark is the only line in the sand. Bigger Frames 49300-50300 is what it rules. Holiday on Monday, Banking as a pack underperforming either locally or globally despite the fall in US yields and lower inflation expectations is a cause...

sreebhashyam

After the V shape, then comes four days of just 75 points move, the first two days 200 points move, and the recent two days 150 points move. In total 300 points up move. The selected frame posts the bearish meeting candle a perfect one. That does not end there. The stochastics indicator is showing the overbought conditions, (may stretch in terms of little extra...

sreebhashyam

In the world of statistics, the base effect plays a larger role, hence any data that comes quite extradinary, these effects are factored into. When the Press asked the J Powell about yesterday's data and if FED members considered that and if yes what his opinion about. 1. The data was discussed, members have been given how to factor that, some of them factored,...

sreebhashyam

It looked like long back the moves from 23300-21300-23300, such a volatility represents the aggregate demand and supply bunched up. No wonder the follow up actions lack similar vigour if not similar steps. Look at the US 10 Y yield up 40 basis down 30 basis up again 30 basis and yesterday down 14 basis, not a small movement. US CPI falls on all its fronts, in...

sreebhashyam

As the markets await FED meeting (not that they expect anything), the series of rate cuts that we witnessed last week, ranging from CAD, Danish and Europe, the FED projections and the press conference assumes importance. In addition, the AI world with Apple joining the race, the comments of IMF Chief Economist, about AI ruling the productivity and thus the...

sreebhashyam

Incremental moves once again impacted by the cues elsewhere than just simply what happens locally. In a sort, market slowly absorbing the election process and coming to terms. Today CPI of importance, FOMC, presser is more important than the action. From six rate cuts, markets now more or less convinced no rate cut before the September. Projections from FED...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank, has not recaptured the old glory, despite the NIFTY crawling back. Still near the 50 K mark, though near 1500 points away. Lots of expectations in change of FM and markets will have to remain focused on no change. It is not an individual it is the team that works. Will Guidelines change matters more than change of Guard. No doubt there is sense...

sreebhashyam

Held the base quite some time, the rotation held, all green. Fight around the old guard, lots of spaces gave up. The new rotational space gave back its gains, that is IT. In a world of inflation fighting, the growth, the cost and the innovation, IT space there are gems and there are some who will slump. No one brush to choose here too. Banks hold does not...