sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

MPC meeting goes with pause. Statements about last mile to reach 4% remains tough, is clear indications no rush to cut. Despite the cuts in West, one has to keep in mind, the rise in West is not commensurate with the rise here and hence cuts won't follow. The cues will be more towards the East, that remains a stable policy than cuts or hikes for the time...

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A week that both bulls and bears would try to ignore but cannot. The news of Retail buying near 21000 C far outweighing the story remains a thing to note. Lots of GTT orders have been hit in that fall, not sure how many were intended if they had time to revise or how many will sell them when the market rise. This is equivalent to one month SIP hence gathers...

sreebhashyam

We had the Dividend story, now the interest part comes later as part of the policy. Interest rate cuts from the West dominated by Swiss, Canada, Danish and Europe. Russia is later in the day, and our own today. The expectation and interest is various, 1. incoming inflation (now that the elections are over the various prices rises are expected and arguably...

sreebhashyam

Turning out to be a week of action, one can read it as weak, if you have not expected this much drama from the market. It all happens and happening in front of us. Camera, Action and Cut. When it comes to cut, it started with Swiss, added the Candy (Candian Cut), followed by a Danish and topped with Euro Cut. Season of cuts? extrapolation to US? Remember, in...

sreebhashyam

2000 points up move, 4000 points down move, 2000 points up-move. Roller Coaster. It is stationary revolution. For sure, confidence in the short term is on the back foot, adhoc longs will get wipeout in the fall if any. While incremental rise will get its profit taking friend. No one would like to own, when there is absence of path what and how the new...

sreebhashyam

It is all in numbers, if you don't believe, you get Numb. From nothing has changed view to ROME is not built in a day, from there, all is lost in a day, who moved my cheese, these were the news or experience one is sharing depending on which time frame, what commitment, what understanding, what faith one holds. Leverage either financial or psychological pulls...

sreebhashyam

Never you see this Index so sensitive to the political news than yesterday. 1. We moved sharply higher post the RBI dividend story. 2. We move sharply lower yesterday political events. 3. This index is known for reversing at the extremes. 4. Does this mean we will reverse this time too. The answer lies, is the market still respecting the demand and supply...

sreebhashyam

The inevitable happens, markets stunned. We have been saying and writing, the market the moves excess ahead of the events always correct viciously than one can digest. This time is no different. The diagonal or the Wedge appearing as end of Wave 5 is sure to displace many, not talk of wedge and edge in the political din. More so when the structure in the wave 5...

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It is clear, there is no debate on open, there is no debate on how much it will open. Cues are there. The question is how much it can stretch. What is the expiry led moves that one can see here. 1. This index held its never in the fall relative to any other sector, hence the more weightage will come from here. How much, non-index stocks move or not one has to...

sreebhashyam

Those who watched our link last week will have some idea, for others the daily readings, will help to some extent. Markets move not on news, but the reaction of the participants to the news. 1. Buy the rumour sell the facts. 2. Good news is bad news. 3. Bad news is good news 4. Buy the fear sell the hope. 5. Sell the strength, buy the weakness. The way one...

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Central Banks act as lender of last resort, for the markets Bank Nifty acted as last resort. The one and the only sector that kept the colour green and carried it all along. One Index standing against all odds. 1. For the bulls ability to stay above 48350-450, the water line continues to hold hope. A close above 49200 will add more freshness to the rally. 2....

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We warned well in advance, did place in no uncertain terms. The fall sharper, steeper. More so it comes after huge build-up of expectations and confidence. This percolates to the short covering of FII shorts and 1000-point NIFTYBANK rally. All that looks like some time back in history. The last half hour of rush to rise, from 22430-22550 stems from the fact,...

sreebhashyam

The best does the move in leading the worst, that tells the story or sums up the story. While optically, we are near where we should not have been in the first place. The rise past 49200. a classical trap to the bulls than to the bears the trap of 48350 break. Thus, the bulls will be hoping to hold that base, previously the top. With Global Cues, weak, fast...

sreebhashyam

Markets are a maze, but those who can infer the patterns and path, it can be mesmerising. True, sometimes you have hits sometimes you have misses, never the miss in the direction. Pull any chart of any sector, they look heavy and calling for help. We pulled some, one is here, doing it the PREPP TO POLLS later in the day. The top left-hand corner is the...

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Well, the words could have been swapped, but the confidence took precedence. The break of 48500-700 area, which now becomes the line in sand for the move, and also the make-or-break line. Short term frames, have evening star, three-line bearish engulfing (almost near), broader markets looking weak, overseas cues negative, nothing going in favour. The large...

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Yesterday we cautioned the impending resistance line drawn from the candle tops, it has worked reasonably well. The damage to the internals is larger than what the NIFTY50 is showing, there are near no liquid trades in the MIDCAP NIFTY beyond the near term and month end expiry, all volumes focussed on NIFTY and NIFTYBANK. Clearly the unhedged mid and small caps...

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It is near six months of upward sloping zone that the NIFTYBANK has been roaming around. For those who read our understanding, clearly this one change trend around the extremes without any warning and hence, this time may not be different. What is different is the boundary of this extreme is squeeing and hence the inevitable move this space has to carve out....

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Suddenly market lack cues for direction, hopes and fear remain on the table. FII huge shorts, which otherwise were powder for short covering vanish, they are reported as minor longs. No one knows for sure, what they have in mind. The broader price is the wisdom print. Couple of days more to negotiate and then there is a month expiry. Overseas were on holiday...