step_ahead_ofthemarket

step_ahead_ofthemarket

Over the past few months one of the most popular topics generally has been related to whether the FED will taper its asset purchases. Now that we are almost past the recovery phase and about to enter the economic mid-cycle expansionary phase as inflation is far about target (>4% compared to 2%) and GDP is far above trend (2021 Estimate of ~6-8% vs potential GDP of...

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Whether it is bitcoin, SPACs, shorted meme stocks, Tesla or other heavily priced in Growth stocks (High Price/Book value), all of these speculative assets have one common factor, that is the cheapness/availability of money. However, this may all change if in the next 2-3 readings inflation pressure are proven to be persistent. Relatively, will be a very in-detail...

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This is an idea that I have an probably will keep working on for a long time. I haven't shared any ideas in a while, and this idea will be a detailed and one of my best ones so far. The aim is to provide the guidelines on how to improve the decision making of your next trade or investments. I will try to keep it as simple and short as possible. As the chart above...

step_ahead_ofthemarket

This will be a relatively detailed idea, but bear with me. There will be plenty of charts that speak for themselves, so I'll try to keep it as short as possible. Since everything is connected, the analysis will contain three parts, including yields, inflation, macro indicators. I will post an additional analysis of equity factor performance during rising yield...

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I'll try to keep this idea short with plenty of detailed charts. With the pricing in of the recent events, I think we're at a pivotal point of what happens next, based on some of the upcoming events (earnings season, Bidens' tax plan etc). Here's why... 1. It's quite obvious from the chart, that the vaccine and election news gave a boost of confidence to...

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Short idea, few things to keep an eye on. It seems that the EUR is conforming a breakout on the monthly. A decent sign for the recovery of the global economy for 2021, as exporting nations are given the advantage of bouncing back post-covid. However, I do not think that the Euro will sustain above the 2018 highs of 1.25 in 2021 for few reasons. -> The EU...

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A detailed analysis on the subject of the expected green revolution in this decade. I won't dwell into the chart technicals' instead I will focus my attention on the fundamentals, in three key bullet points: A) Firstly, I chose ICLN since it's by far the largest by volume and assets, green ETF. Interestingly it has had quite an abysmal performance relative to...

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A short post, with few important points: With record low interest rates globally, the carry trade with the short-side in yen is somewhat losing its popularity. Some of the reasons why are: => The carry premium isn't worth the risk any longer. Lately currency markets have been quite volatile, question is whether this will continue. If we get a somewhat more...

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Short chart idea about EU banks. Expecting choppy times ahead. Currently, at the bottom of the downtrend. I do not think that the worst case scenario is likely, although can never underestimate the strength of a potential domino effect to a solvency crisis. You can see the probable bottoms from the labelled array of trend lines. Intuitively, you can observe,...

step_ahead_ofthemarket

The idea briefly explained: Considering Biden's and the Democrats stance on foreign policy, probabilistically speaking the chances are, of fewer tariffs with US allies, as well as a more comprehensive and less volatile trade policy. Of course, this benefits Germany and the EU in general. Hence, expecting that the US elections event to turn out as the wedge...

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Monthly chart that's quite self-explanatory. There's no reason that the current trend that's lasted 20 years would suddenly break, unless the FED start raising rates which would absolutely obliterate the already crumbling economy. Compared to 2008-2009, money growth has surged almost twice as fast fred.stlouisfed.org Simply going off from the previous...

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I will keep it short. There's been plenty of media coverage lately on bitcoin. Simply goes to say that the media folks and insiders(Paul Tudor) got in about a month or so ago, and now they're pushing their agenda saying - oh it's time to buy? But really, is it time to buy? Bitcoin certainly had a great V recovery similar to big tech. The catalyst, of...

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Market Guidance 2020-2021 Edition 2: Bitcoin as a credit cycle indicator- Is Bitcoin in fact, a safe-haven asset? Giving my intuition on expected long & short term future returns, and answering why the sell-off happened last week. If you stare at a chart long enough, suddenly it all makes sense . Abstract for any that don't have the time or understanding to...

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The state of global markets and individual asset classes, ahead of one of the most speculative weekends since the financial crises Did we capitulate this week? What will be the most likely policy response of central banks and governments globally? What factors will facilitate a bounce in stocks? How low can stocks go? Is the virus panic justified? Performance...

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Four Major Global Indices; Series on Equities- January 19th 20' Questions that need answers Plenty of good news last week (Chinese Growth ~6%, PHASE I deal, global bounce in manufacturing data, USMCA vote etc etc) . Many worries had been pacified ahead of earnings, so what is the price action in some of the major global markets? Spoiler , obviously due to...

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Short and well-detailed idea on Value vs Momentum investing? ; Series on investing- Dec 28th, 2019 What's the Equal-value weighted(RSP) vs Market-cap weighted, top heavy(SPY) ratio useful for? - Simply for discussing how two of the most well known investment strategies have performed in the recent years. There's many books written on this topic, but I...

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The 2020 Outlook: Series on Equities , part (4/4); Dec 28th, 2019 Very simple and straight forward chart. Obviously, very unlikely that it'll completely follow the drawn structure, but here are the few things that I am expecting in 2020. 1. It will be a slow year. Mostly because of all of the election noise, smart money will be waiting on the outcome of...

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Short analysis on importance of ample liquidity ; Series on Equities and the 2020 Outlook: Part (3/4)- 28th Dec 19' 1. Naturally, there's a constant growth in money supply. Part of it ends up as investments in stocks. Hence, it is useful to look at the ratio between money supply and the returns on the market to assess the relative value of the market. This...