A decade after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the world economy is even more leveraged. This time, however, the intervention by central banks will not work because they are out of ammunition. Global Trade growth is crumbling; overall GDP growth is at slowest and will get worse according to the latest assessment by the World Bank. The trade war between the...
The global stock market gets its cue from over-optimistic narrative news that resulted in a pandemic obsession to push stock market asset price higher at any cost. We live in the era of pandemic good news narrative, that resulted in ignoring, and dismissing any bad economic news as yesterday’s news. -Monetary easing and negative interest rate is widely...
1-The elusive global economy will be replaced by a new era of regional economy alliance trigged by the US and China Cold War and weakening European Union caused by Brexit 2-China will accelerate decoupling its reliance on the US to create a self-sustaining economy with the aim to cut further ties with the US. 3- A new era of regional innovations in technology...
The market is stuck in a loop - Any scent of good news pushes the market up but only goes down on a piece of catastrophic bad news. This is the sign of extreme denial and complecency stating the market up loop has been reached. A new down loop will form soon. - Investors getting desensitized to bad news and rather to react to anything that pushes the market...
Bullish optimism is misplaced on false hopes - The recent market rally is encouraged by Wall street 'Buy on Dips" headlines to lure investors in - Big institutions were caught off guard after the last sell-off and planning to off-load their stocks to unsuspecting investors - Resistance and doubts are already evident in slow climb post last week rally China has...
Market setup is repeating 2018 sell-off. Global uncertainty hasn't subsided and has gotten worse. Corporate earnings have declined, and Q3 results won't look good. Despite all uncertainty, Equities are still an all-time high Stable fixed income is nonexistence - Investors are putting more money in Risky assets that offer higher yields than bonds - Overall, all...
Next week both the US and China will impose tariff and physiological impacts alone is keeping market grounded. The US high end consumers already tightened their spending and the impact of high end consumer spending will show in the September data exasperated by impact of tariff on middle class consumer spending. Starting September 1, U.S. tariffs on about half of...
Since last Friday, the global market has been unable to recover from the sell-off after the fear of trade war has resurfaced. The reason for lack of meaningful bounce back is because Wall street and investors no longer believe in the magic of Trump Put after hearing from China denying they have called Trump. It is becoming evident to the US and global investors;...