supestv

supestv

Wow - good to see BTC going crazy bullish, and everyone has the opportunity to make money, not just smart-ass technical analysts. I've been waiting forever for a deep retracement that didn't happen. So I think right now we just started a new 12345 wave up, the "big retracement" happened, except it was a sideways ABCDE and wasn't that big.

supestv

Check out the 4HR OBV. The bright green line shows the length of the last longest bull run from $6k. The current one now is longer by time. Not quite sure what subwave we're on. We're either due for a subwave correction or a wave correction. Since it blasted through the pink rising wedge (and came back down), I expected it to correct in some way, but BTC has...

supestv

I see two possible wave structures - the green one where we finished 5 waves up to $9040, then the yellow ABCDE sideways correction, then a new wave up or The blue one where wave 4 is the yellow ABCDE correction, and wave 5 just finished at $9287, and now we are to start some correction wave down. This is a very important distinction of course, because if it's...

supestv

I thought we might be on Subwave C of Wave 2, but it's possible that Wave 1 hasn't completed yet. If we draw the downtrend yesterday as SubWave 4, then the size of Subwave 4 matches Subwave 2 better, which would mean that we have another Subwave 5 upward that we are currently on. Be aware! This could be a very very long, tall bullish wave!!

supestv

I think wave 5 is done now. Wow.

supestv

Check out that 4H OBV - it went parabolic! Literally off the charts! Never seen anything like it! Not sure whether it's a tradingview bug. Nevertheless, I think it's safe to say we are definitely in a bull market right now, so bugger off with those $3k predictions already.

supestv

BTC seems to be following several possible trend lines at the moment. The most convincing one right now is a descending triangle pattern based on the number of touch points.

supestv

Light Green Channel : unlikely, given the price has already broken it. Medium Green Channel : most likely IMO. It's also a bear flag, which affirms my Elliott Wave count. Dark Green Channel : longer-term channel, and this is possible if the market is super bullish because it implies an extended 5th wave to possible $8800 levels before correcting. My suspicion...

supestv

The market is very very bullish. Make no mistake. First the SubWave 4 retracement was shallow, which only happens about 15% of the time, second - look at that 4HR OBV!! Do not understate the importance of the 4HR OBV - it is now on a longer uptrend that at any time since $19k. All those other times when we thought that btc was recovering (since $19k) was...

supestv

So I have re-assessed my Elliott Wave Counts: one bright blue (bearish), and one bright green (bullish). The bright blue bearish pattern is only possible if it is a sidways ABC pattern, which means that each subwave has 3 subwaves. Therefore expect subwave C to go down in 3 waves, not 5. Similarly the bright green ABC pattern is a sideways ABC, which allows...

supestv

I have drawn 2 possible counts, one in pink and one in blue. I think that it looks clear that we are following the bullish pink count. The blue count indicates that we are still on a subwave B of wave 2, but I can't see how it's possible to get a mini-subwave ABC within subwave B - you really have to force it. Furthermore the 4 HR MACD is curling up and the 4HR...

supestv

Blue or Pink? I have in blue a bearish count where we are one MiniSubwave 2 of SubWave C (of Wave 2). In pink is the bullish count where we have finished SubWave C and are on Minisubwave 3 of Wave 3. Looking at the 4 HR RSI, OBV and MACD supports the pink wave I think. The OBV has turned to positive trend since $7800, and if we are on wave 3, that means that...

supestv

So that pump last night was unexpected, so had to move around the wave points. The overall results don't change however. Because Wave 1 ended around $7450, this should not correct below $7450. Below $7450 and the entire wave is invalidated. I expect the correction to go to lowest $7600 based on how the wave is looking and historical supports. However, I...

supestv

$7700 is a strong target for these reasons: 1. 0.382 Fib retracement level (Wave 1 started at $6504) 2. If you take the length of Subwave A and overlay it over Subwave C, it ends at $7700. 3. Drawing the mini-subwaves of Subwave C leads to a target of $7700.

supestv

BTC in another symmetrical triangle, this time it entered it from above. I'm hoping the exit from this triangle will confirm a direction. I've charted 2 waves: a bearish wave (bright green) and a bullish one (blue). On the one hand, the indicators seem to indicate that the green is correct, but we've also seen btc buck the trend and just go with the current...

supestv Updated 

At first I believed we had finished 5 waves up, and were on an ABC correction. But this ABC correction refuses to look credible. BTC price refuses to give up going up, when I'm expecting it to go down. So I redrew the wave count so that the recent high was actually the end of wave 3, not wave 5, we have just finished wave 4 and have started wave 5. Now...

supestv

I spoke too soon earlier. I thought there wasn't a pretty way to draw the waves, but I have since redrawn them and they look better now. So we could be on SubWave B of Wave 2, or we could be on SubWave 5 of Wave 1 (see previous post ). Unfortunately - both are credible right now, and it looks like we won't find out until possibly the $8150 region, where I...

supestv

So I think we've just entered subwave 3. I thought that we may have been on subwave 5, but reviewing the current movements seems to indicate we have only finished subwaves 1 and 2. The good news is that we have a confirmed end point for subwave 1 so you can set your stop orders in. The btc price should not exceed $7899 without invalidating the count. I...