tacosaurus

tacosaurus Updated 

In late June, I identified a bearish divergence and targeted the mid to low 50's. This clearly didn't come together, and quickly became a broken trade for a loss -- but what has remained is the same bearish divergence -- RSI making lower highs while the stock makes higher highs. And now we could be forming a rounded top. With earnings around the corner (sep...

tacosaurus

With some of the recent tightening rhetoric and pressure on the indexes, it's not much of a surprise demand for dollars has been increasing. We have a pretty clear bullish wedge break followed by a double bottom. Give this one at least a month or two -- I feel 26 is within reach (distance on 'W' is around 24.15-25.15, so 26.15 would be the actual expectation)....

tacosaurus

we have come off these highs to visit the 50 day moving average seven times since the recovery started. This will make it the 8th. the easy trade is short to 4340. However, this time things might be a bit worse as the environment with potential fed tightening on the horizon may let us penetrate through the 50 unless the times before. a smaller number of...

tacosaurus

QQQ seems to have run its course. The obvious fundamental of imminent tapering and subsequent likely yield increase may be the part to break the camels back here. The obvious penalty zone candidate would be the high price/sales multiple companies - which often times re tech names. Technically, there' s a lot to be worried about, especially since the Jul 13...

tacosaurus

we have had a nice run up into earnings, but I think we are going to see a sell-on-news as more earnings come out. rsi is making lower lows which spx prints a higher high - this type of negative divergence usually results in a reversal. daily macd is about to roll; momentum simply seems to be waning. looks for 4200-4300, the area where we had created a small...

tacosaurus Updated 

Very typical 'W' pattern forming on 2h with a 'handle' on the end of the W. This projection would go to about 4400 on SPX500 , probabaly before the end of June. We have a nicely confirming MACD and RSI making higher lows through this construction. We also have very long shadows on the W bounce points (see circled lows) meaning the buyers were extremely...

tacosaurus

Another screamer with a negative divergence forming. I think we could see this in the 50-55 zone in the next 1-2 weeks. Here again we have a decreasing MACD and decreasing RSI while the stock pushed new highs.

tacosaurus

I never like to short things going into earnings, but given the relative underperformance of GOOG:QQQ and a recently developed negative divergence, I think this run is over for the short term. Looking for the 2450-2475 range in the next week or two. The stock pushed new highs on a lower reading for both the MACD and RSI. Furthermore, the MACD is starting to...

tacosaurus

SWN has been slowly returning from the 'left for dead' pile, significantly outperforming the broader XLE index since the covid bottom in early 2020. While I could see some consolidation at the current 5.75 level for a few weeks, this could be poised to run as high as 15 over the course of the next year. The most attractive thing about this stock is the...

tacosaurus

Chart looks almost as terrible as the BTCUSD chart (see reference below) with an intraday H&S formation. Confirmation of this pattern would stick us around the 25 level. With the 200 day offering support around 22-23, and having tested it for a week previously, it seems probable we could descend through it in the next week or two. I would see 18 as the medium...

tacosaurus Updated 

After passing the 42k mark targeted back in April (see below reference), we are still in a downtrend channel. Intraday shows a bearish wedge forming - or you could call it a bear flag with a more zoomed out view. Weekly charts look terrible and while daily charts look like a dead-cat-bounced out of oversold territory. I'm expecting another big flush coming out...

tacosaurus Updated 

One of the most unusual things about the market over the past few months has been this "inflation fear" has not helped gold out. Typically people flee to hard assets like GLD to try to preserve value while their dollars lose relative buying power and bonds get slaughtered. arguably, bitcoin has been poaching money from the GLD trade of late. But things may be...

tacosaurus Updated 

Nice break from descending wedge. Furthermore, bouncing off longer term support (thicker blue line); looking for it to pair up with the red descending line from the wedge break. on 4h charts, we have a nice HA buy signal and PSAR also turning up. MACD curving upwards; RSI coming out of oversold conditions. Opened a May 21 3150-3280 call spread. (3280 chosen...

tacosaurus

Cup-n-handle forming - or a double top with rounded bottom and a bull wedge. Sitting at resistance now. Momentum indicators look good, RSI improving as price is pushing higher.

tacosaurus

MSTR in many ways has become a proxy for the bitcoin trade. With 91k bitcoin at an average price around 21k, the bulk of MSTR's market cap comes from it's bitcoin assets, not it's actual business. In many ways, this chart could resemble a descending triangle, but really we are just going to follow the bitcoin chart. While BTC hit my ~42k target today, I see it...

tacosaurus Updated 

So RIOT has been a hugely fun stock to trade, and with my 42k/30k BTC projection, it is easy to see why. Today RIOT reported an underwhelming 1771 BTC has been mined by their operation, with a 'today market value' of about 100m. And they are maybe going to add some capacity if semiconductor shortages and bitmain are able to deliver more. Sporting a market cap...

tacosaurus Updated 

First, we have a gap to fill around 4000 on SPX. Second, while we have been pushing new highs in the past couple weeks, we have a bearish divergence on both the MACD and RSI which are making lower highs with these new price highs. Third, there is a possible ascending wedge (bearish formation). Lastly, these 'push new highs and then fail' reversal days are not...

tacosaurus Updated 

This is now the 7th time we bump into the uptrend line. The more times we bump into it, the more likely it is to break. Weekly charts also look unhealthy. Negative divergence on RSI corrrelated to previous highs. This trade is broken if it trades over 710, otherwise it looks like 450 is coming soon. Also worth noting that Elon has quite a few of his shares...