Referencing my NPN seasonal chart (published at the beginning of last week, see attached), NPN appears to be losing steam in the short term. I also highlighted this chart (with annotations) on Tuesday suggesting 'reduce' if you're a short term trader. Tencent looking weak in HK this morning - possibly on the back of the social unrest seen in China as well as...
TFG: Recent call to 'reduce' above 14900c. Now looking at a potential downside continuation. Poor candle structure at multi-month support where a breach and close below the lows could open up a sustained medium term downward trend. Local economic conditions possibly placing pressure on consumer discretionary spend which could see valuations de-rate. Risk BELOW 11700c.
Nasdaq 100 Futures: 1st higher low has seen strong upside follow-through. The declining 50-day EMA acts as a resistance zone.
Has regained it's position above it's weekly & monthly pivot as well as it's 8 & 21-EMA. On any advance, the declining 50-day EMA could act as a resistance zone. See accompanying table as a reference for the key moving average levels.
– 7-day RSI remains below 140-day RSI, suggesting bearish momentum intact. – Daily candle reflecting poor candle structure at support, suggesting risk of potential breach of support – Price remains below key supply zones in the form of key moving averages (8 21 50-EMA)
S. Africa Fear & Greed (5-Year Trend) - Investors becoming more fearful?
JSE Top 40 Index Q3 Seasonality. Notes on chart. For more insights such as these, get in touch today.
I know Naspers probably has some more upside over the medium to long term but I thought it would be cool to see what usually happens after it rallies 40% or more in a quarter. The sample size isn't large but I had a look nonetheless. The average subsequent 3M return is +2.07%. We are currently up 6% for Q3, so it's running 3x above that. Let's see... For more...
CREDIT SPREADS: IEF vs JNK - In my view, one of the most important charts when considering your risk appetite for equities. Notes on chart.
Original Idea Attached. Covering Short/Sell Idea from this past Monday (27 June). Share down 7.5% or -1600c over the 3-4 days, testing sub-19700c. Maybe there's more to go on the downside but it's always good to continuously be 'banking'. Also, it could be extended vs it's 8-EMA, so an ultra short term bounce is possible. Original short/sell at 24500c in April...
JSE Top 40: As noted pre-market yesterday, the 8 & 21-DAY EMA was a potential support on a retracement. We saw these levels act as buying areas intraday with the index managing to recover some of it's intraday losses. Resistance is the 50-EMA and 50-61.8% FIB.
Update: Absa Group ABG - 15752c. Negative price action as it looks to be building a topping structure with the incline support going back to the March 2020 lows at risk. Has seen a massive decline from my selling zone +19100c in late March. Barclays continuing to sell as it possibly requires additional funds for it's acquisition of Kensington Mortgage Co. A...
JSE Top 40 Index: On pullbacks, moderate support at the 8 & 21-DAY EMA Range (See table above). Resistance is the declining 50-EMA & 50 to 61.8% bearish Fibonacci retracement zone.
Original idea attached. Published this at 607.03 on Thursday. Went to 593.00 on Friday and then to 635.00 this morning. It's called....PAYtience:)
Original Idea Attached. Update: Reached upper boundary of channel (faster than expected) - see circled area. The arrow was the initial 'potential price path' .
Currently trading within a sideward to gradually downward range in the form of a potential bull flag structure. The monthly pivot is 19.78 i.e. the key level for an upside break. Traders should also monitor the downward trend line which extends from the peak of 05 January at R21.74 where a break could signal a change of trend from neutral to bullish.
Clear seller at 21950-22100c. I mentioned this level on the group on 02 June (at the 1st red arrow), which has been a range to sell into for ST cash flow. Today, we are also seeing the price slicing through the EMA's with force. Should the share break and close below 21050c, it could trade 19800-20000c. Upside risk above 22240c.
How I'm seeing Capitec Bank from a medium term technical perspective. My comments on CPI pre-market today: Capitec Bank (CPI) – Over the last few months I’ve highlighted opportunities on both the long and short side. The following is an updated view: Two setups seen within a large head and should formation: (1) a bear flag and (2) a smaller head and shoulder...