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Quarterly US dollar fundamental forecast In the second reading, Germany's GDP for the second quarter was reduced to -0.3%, which indicates a technical recession. This pushed EURUSD to a two-month low and allowed the price to hit the first of two short targets at 1.0715 and 1.0665. If the situation in the other leading economies of the eurozone does not change,...

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In a fresh look at the outlook for the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate, Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, draws attention to a potential slide for the sterling. "We see scope for cable to drop to 1.22 on a 3-month view," says Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank. This outlook indicates a drop in the value of the pound against the dollar by...

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Economists at UBS, led by Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle, have also explored potential market reactions to a breach of the X-date. Notably, the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Gold emerge as key assets that could be significantly influenced. In most scenarios, Pingle anticipates a softening of the US Dollar amidst rising uncertainty. Interestingly,...

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Economists at UBS, led by Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle, have also explored potential market reactions to a breach of the X-date. Notably, the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Gold emerge as key assets that could be significantly influenced. In most scenarios, Pingle anticipates a softening of the US Dollar amidst rising uncertainty. Interestingly,...

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Foreign exchange analysts at Goldman Sachs still expect that the US Dollar to lose ground over 2023 as a whole, but expect this will take longer than expected previously due to US and global developments. It notes; “Our underlying view for FX markets this year is that we are likely to see only a “bumpy deceleration” for the Dollar, because slack in the US economy...

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Economists at UBS, led by Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle, have also explored potential market reactions to a breach of the X-date. Notably, the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Gold emerge as key assets that could be significantly influenced. In most scenarios, Pingle anticipates a softening of the US Dollar amidst rising uncertainty. Interestingly,...

thunderpips

Economists at UBS, led by Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle, have also explored potential market reactions to a breach of the X-date. Notably, the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Gold emerge as key assets that could be significantly influenced. In most scenarios, Pingle anticipates a softening of the US Dollar amidst rising uncertainty. Interestingly,...

thunderpips

Economists at UBS, led by Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle, have also explored potential market reactions to a breach of the X-date. Notably, the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Gold emerge as key assets that could be significantly influenced. In most scenarios, Pingle anticipates a softening of the US Dollar amidst rising uncertainty. Interestingly,...

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Crude oil: gaining on lower inventories While the broader macro conditions remained complex as hawkish Fed speak and debt ceiling deadlock weighed, crude oil prices managed to inch higher and start the week on a positive note after heavy selling both in paper and physical market over the last few weeks. Supply side news remain mixed with Russian exports...

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The US dollar has hit a fresh year to date high overnight against the yen at 138.87 as it continues to extend its advance from the low of 133.75 recorded on 11th May. Over that period the yen has been the worst performing G10 currency alongside the Scandi currencies of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone which have declined by over 2% against the US dollar. The...

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Economists at Barclays Bank suggest a complex forecast for the US dollar, considering factors like the potential resolution of the US debt ceiling issue, unexpected softening of Chinese data, and the strength in recent US data. US Dollar Rally and Exchange Rate Forecast Barclay's analysts note the recent rally of the US dollar amid potential resolution of the...

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Foreign exchange forecasters at ING expect that the US Dollar can maintain a firm tone in the short term. It does, however, expect notable deterioration over the second half of the year which will trigger rate cuts. The bank expects that yield spreads will move against the US Dollar with the Bank of England resisting any rate cuts. The bank expects that the...

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The gold price has come off from its recent high as US President Joe Biden expressed confidence in avoiding a government default amid progress in debt ceiling negotiations, better US data, and hawkish comments by some Fed members. Gold is now around 4% lower than the year-to-date high reached earlier this month. However, the yellow metal remains 8.2% higher since...

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Foreign exchange forecasters at ING expect that the US Dollar can maintain a firm tone in the short term. It does, however, expect notable deterioration over the second half of the year which will trigger rate cuts. The bank expects that yield spreads will move against the US Dollar with the Bank of England resisting any rate cuts. The bank expects that the...

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The gold price has come off from its recent high as US President Joe Biden expressed confidence in avoiding a government default amid progress in debt ceiling negotiations, better US data, and hawkish comments by some Fed members. Gold is now around 4% lower than the year-to-date high reached earlier this month. However, the yellow metal remains 8.2% higher since...

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Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets, EMEA & International Securities at MUFG, suggests that the recent trend seeing a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) may not last, due to the changing dynamics that drove the currency weaker in 2022. "We remain unconvinced that the trend in yen weakness can persist. The dynamics that drove the yen weaker in 2022 are...

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The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate hit 12-month highs at 1.2675 on May 10th before a retreat to 1.2400 amid a dollar rebound. The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate also hit 2023 highs close to 1.1550 before settling just above 1.1500. Pound Sterling: UK Outlook Half Full or Half Empty The UK fundamentals have improved over the past few months...

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Oil prices have remained under pressure over the past month, with Brent crude falling 13.6% amid recession fears in the US and weaker-than-expected economic data out of China. Still-elevated Russian exports and the sizable inventory build at the start of this year due to a milder winter in the Northern Hemisphere have also played a role. We now see the Brent...