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thunderpips

BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda is a scholar, so if the BOJ does conduct a review, he will probably be forced to recognize the impossibility of the BOJ’s current monetary policy. With the phase of rate hikes also coming to an end in the US, the dollar/yen pair’s topside will gradually grow heavier from here on.

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Debt ceiling talks still in limbo US House Speaker McCarthy gave mixed comments on the debt ceiling talks. He said they set the stage to carry on further conversations and President Biden agreed to appoint a couple of people from the administration to negotiate directly with his team. McCarthy also said there is a lot of work to do in a short amount of time and...

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According to strategists at ABN AMRO, the price of gold in US Dollars could be set to ease slightly to $2000 in 2023, before rallying in value to $2200 in 2024. Of course, one of the biggest advantages to include gold in your portfolio is to hedge against inflation. Despite a rally of over 10% this year, the price of gold may face limited upward movement from...

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Australia: Jobs, wage data and RBA minutes on tap Australia’s labor market data is out on Thursday and expected to show the addition of 25k jobs in April after 53k jobs added in March, with the unemployment and participation rates seen steady at 3.5% and 66.7% respectively. Just a day ahead of this release, we also get the Q1 wage price index which could be a...

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US: Debt ceiling talks, retail sales and jobless claims Despite inflation concerns easing somewhat last week, at least for the near term, markets still remain in a risk-off as debt ceiling talks linger. President Biden is expected to continue debt-ceiling talks with Congress leaders on Tuesday after last Friday’s meeting was postponed. The market is increasingly...

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Japan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in...

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Japan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in...

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The BoE's Policy Implications One noteworthy factor contributing to this optimistic outlook is the BoE's latest meeting. Despite the upgraded forecasts for growth and inflation indicating a higher threshold for the incoming data to surpass, it also hints at the risk of more persistent inflation that might necessitate further monetary policy tightening. "While...

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US: Debt ceiling talks, retail sales and jobless claims Despite inflation concerns easing somewhat last week, at least for the near term, markets still remain in a risk-off as debt ceiling talks linger. President Biden is expected to continue debt-ceiling talks with Congress leaders on Tuesday after last Friday’s meeting was postponed. The market is increasingly...

thunderpips

Japan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in...

thunderpips

Australia: Jobs, wage data and RBA minutes on tap Australia’s labor market data is out on Thursday and expected to show the addition of 25k jobs in April after 53k jobs added in March, with the unemployment and participation rates seen steady at 3.5% and 66.7% respectively. Just a day ahead of this release, we also get the Q1 wage price index which could be a...

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UK: Labor data to keep Bank of England expectations hawkish The Bank of England has made it clear that the decision on June rate hike will be underpinned by the two sets of wage and inflation data out before the next meeting. The first of these unemployment and wage numbers will be out on Tuesday, with consensus expectations not suggesting any let up in concerns...

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UK: Labor data to keep Bank of England expectations hawkish The Bank of England has made it clear that the decision on June rate hike will be underpinned by the two sets of wage and inflation data out before the next meeting. The first of these unemployment and wage numbers will be out on Tuesday, with consensus expectations not suggesting any let up in concerns...

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Japanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds...

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Pound Sterling briefly dipped after the GDP data on Friday, but still found support on dips with GBP/USD around 1.2530 and GBP/EUR at 1.1475. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened to 1.2640 in an immediate response to the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. There was, however, a notable reversal later in the session as risk appetite...

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Pound Sterling briefly dipped after the GDP data on Friday, but still found support on dips with GBP/USD around 1.2530 and GBP/EUR at 1.1475. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened to 1.2640 in an immediate response to the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. There was, however, a notable reversal later in the session as risk appetite...

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An extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in...

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Japanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds...